October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM...
MATAGORDA BAY...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1253 PM CDT...A FAST MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE MATAGORDA PENINSULA
TO20NM SOUTH OF SARGENT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COX BAY...MATAGORDA JETTY...BRAZOS 490...CHOCOLATE BAY...KELLER
BAY...BRAZOS 439...BRAZOS 400...TURTLE BAY...PALACIOS BAY...
CARANCAHUA BAY...LAVACA BAY...MATAGORDA BAY AND EAST MATAGORDA BAY.

[srainhoutx]

Updated 24 hour QPF just issued. Bulls eye for SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
130 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
130 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 127 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NEAR JAMAICA BEACH...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF HITCHCOCK...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. WE ARE MONITORING WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...HITCHCOCK...JAMAICA BEACH AND GALVESTON
STATE PARK.

[brooksgarner]

Brooks, there is already video out there.

Yes, just saw it! Incredible! https://www.facebook.com/vannascott/vid ... 440591843/
I asked NWS on chat and they confirmed, based on the video.

[Rip76]

Rain starting in Pearland area.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Warning down the Coast...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
137 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 136 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DRISCOLL...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROBSTOWN AROUND 200 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
PETRONILA AND NORTH SAN PEDRO.

[srainhoutx]

Before things get too active, I wanted to give everyone a heads up that it is looking like we will have additional weather worries next weekend. It appears we are seeing a combination of the strong El Nino, a favorable MJO and a very noisy sub tropical jet with abundant moisture as well as another Western trough developing.



EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1147 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 27 2015 - 12Z SAT OCT 31 2015


...MODELS SIGNALING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR TEXAS...

CONTINUE TO RELY UPON THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS AS A SYNOPTIC
GUIDE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES STILL HANDLED DISPARATELY BY THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS. A DEEP CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO SPRAWL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, WRINGING OUT WIDESPREAD SOAKING
SHOWERS ALONG ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, ALONG WITH ITS PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE, SHOULD LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH, SPREADING THE HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THAT REGION. OVER
THE WEST, A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BOTH ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST
AND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD. AS THE SOUTHERN ENERGY
REACHES TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, IT SHOULD
RENEW AT LEAST A MODEST TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, FUELING
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE LONE STAR STATE.


CISCO

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
150 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 148 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF JAMAICA BEACH...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
JAMAICA BEACH AROUND 155 PM CDT.

RADAR INDICATED A WATERSPOUT APPROACHING THE WEST END OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.

[Katdaddy]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Dangerous high impact storm system will affect SE TX tonight

Galveston County has issued a voluntary evacuation of Bolivar Peninsula effective at 1100am this morning.

Coastal Flood Warning is in effect

Gale Warning is in effect

Flash Flood Watch is in effect

Rainfall:

Significant and dangerous flash flood event starting to unfold over SE TX. Radar shows numerous and widespread showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall from Matagorda Bay SW to near Brownsville lifting northward into SE TX. Rainfall rates are starting to increase over SE TX and suspect flash flood warnings will be required in the next few hours from Matagorda Bay northward toward College Station as totals begin to stack up. Models remain in decent agreement on “incredible” rainfall totals over SE TX this evening into the overnight hours especially along and SE of US 59. CRP morning sounding came in with a record PWS value for this data, so this juicy air mass is primed and ready to go. Rainfall nearing 20 inches at Corsicana, TX yesterday and this morning certainly illustrates the ability of this air mass to produce some really big totals.

Widespread rainfall of 9-12 inches will be possible along and SE of US 59 with 4-8 inches NW of US 59 by midday tomorrow. Such totals in 24 hours would be near our 1% or 100-yr rainfall frequencies for this area.

Additionally, high hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches will be possible.

Significant flooding will result if these totals are realized.

Tides:

Starting the upward trend toward high tide early this evening which should be the highest of the last several days. Expecting values still in the 4.5-5.5ft range along the entire upper TX coast which will likely cause minor to moderate coastal flooding especially on Bolivar.

Winds/Tornadoes:

Expecting winds to increase this afternoon and really crank up this evening offshore and along the coast with gusts of 40-45mph possible and sustained 40mph+ offshore. Could see some minor wind damage and power outages along the coast tonight.

Did have a tornado this morning along the south Beltway at Cullen Rd…and this air mass will remain capable of such weak short lived tornadoes through the duration of this event.

[unome]

[srainhoutx]

Updated 24 hour QPF just issued. Bulls eye for SE Texas.

From Jeff:

WPC has updated the QPF for the next 24 hours.

Very significant totals likely over SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
206 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 204 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WEST GALVESTON BAY NEAR JAMAICA
BEACH...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF HITCHCOCK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
AREAS WEST OF HITCHCOCK AROUND 230 PM CDT.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, feel free to post any information or local reports you have. We have a lot of Government, Media and folks just wanting information watching the board today. We shouldn't have any further issues with 'hyping' either...

[srainhoutx]

NWS Brownsville declares a Flood Emergency for Weslaco in SE Hildago County. Roads have become impassable.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
211 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 210 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
OVER LOW ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY UNDERPASSES AND INTERSECTIONS.
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...KINGSVILLE...PORTLAND...ROBSTOWN...SINTON...
TAFT...DRISCOLL...CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BISHOP...
ODEM...GREGORY...CALALLEN...BLUNTZER...INGLESIDE--ARANSAS PASS...
CORPUS CHRISTI COUNTRY CLUB...RIVIERA BEACH...KINGS CROSSING GOLF
COURSE...CLARKWOOD...CHRISTUS SPOHN HOSPITAL SOUTH AND DRISCOLL
CHILDRENS HOSPITAL.

[Andrew]

Beginning to feel more confident that areas along the coast and in particular between Matagorda Bay and Galveston will see the max precipitation. Hi-Res models along with global models agree. Looking at current radar trends too that pattern seems to be taking shape. Still expect most places across SE Texas to see 4-6 inches before it is all said and done.

[brooksgarner]

The 1:45pm convective waterspout TVS that passed through Jamaica Beach just south, may have verified. I called the Silverleaf Resort (in the path of the TVS) who confirmed that they are assessing the damage, but offered no further info.

[kitkat4me]

First, Thank you to all that is posting the information about the weather there in Texas. Being here, Canada, and not in Texas with my kids, I can check this forum and see whats going on without bugging and worrying to much.

I have looked at different news channels and it seems that some are saying my area, Hwy 6 Sienna Plantation area, will get a lot lot lot of rain, and others saying maybe 2 inches. Can someone advise which is it? I know you can pin point, but would like a heads up for an approx.

Thanks again and be safe.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
221 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 219 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MATAGORDA...SOUTHWESTERN BAY CITY...PALACIOS...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR
PLANT...MARKHAM...BLESSING AND MIDFIELD.

AT 215 PM CDT...FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN PALACIOS ON EAST AND WEST
BAYSHORE DRIVE...AND ON THE 700 BLOCK OF MOORE TO MAIN STREET.

CONTINUED MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
227 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-
227 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA...WEST
CENTRAL GALVESTON AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
WEST OF HITCHCOCK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THERE WAS ALSO
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 3 MILES EAST OF DANBURY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. WE ARE MONITORING WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PEARLAND...SOUTHWESTERN LEAGUE CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
ALVIN...SANTA FE...HITCHCOCK...MANVEL...DANBURY...IOWA COLONY...
HILLCREST...LIVERPOOL...BONNEY...CHOCOLATE BAYOU AND ROSHARON.