91E developed rapidly overnight and was designated Tropical Storm Guillermo early this morning. We are going to have a dedicated Topic for this cyclone since it could possibly pose a threat to Hawaii and the AF Hurricane Hunters as well as the NOAA G-IV will begin sampling this storm as it nears Hawaii next week. Currently a C-130 is scheduled to begin repositioning from Biloxi via Travis AFB tomorrow and then fly to Hickam Field in Pearl Harbor Saturday.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 30 JULY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-065
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 02/1800Z NEAR
15.2N 143.0W.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT AROUND
GUILLERMO FOR 03/0000Z.
$$
JWP
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015
Guillermo's convective pattern continues to improve, with a solid
band curving about half way around the center of circulation.
Dvorak classifications were T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt
from SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 40 kt.
This could be somewhat conservative, given that the latest objective
ADTs are around 45 kt.
The environment ahead of Guillermo looks plenty favorable for
continued strengthening. Upper-level outflow is expanding around
the cyclone, and Guillermo should remain in a light-shear
environment for at least the next 3-4 days. In addition, sea
surface temperatures are about 29 degrees C, and the atmosphere is
moist and unstable. Additional strengthening is anticipated during
the next few days, and there remains a 1 in 3 chance of rapid
intensification during the next 24 hours. Given the favorable
environment, the official intensity forecast is a little above the
intensity consensus for the entire forecast period. It should be
noted that the HWRF model shows a stronger hurricane than is
indicated in the official forecast, bringing Guillermo to category 2
strength in about 3 days. Some weakening should occur by days 4 and
5, mainly due to increased shear and lower oceanic heat content.
Guillermo is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, to the south
of the subtropical ridge. The global models indicate that a mid-
to upper-level low located about 1000 miles west of southern
California will deepen and amplify during the next few days, which
should produce a break in the subtropical ridge. The track models
are in good agreement during the first 48 hours, and most of the
spread beyond that time is due to speed differences. An overall
westward shift in the guidance envelope necessitated an adjustment
to the official track forecast from 48 hours and beyond, and it
lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.
The 12Z GFS which has been rather insistent that Guillermo would recurve before the Big Island (Hawaii) has trended further W suggesting it may pass near Hilo.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Hurricane Guillermo continues to become better organized and may reach Major Hurricane status before weakening as it makes its approach toward the Big Island of Hawaii. If you recall, it was about the same time last year when Major Hurricane Iselle was churning WNW toward the Big Island and struck the E coast of Hawaii island as the strongest tropical cyclone to ever hit the Big Island. There is a SE Texas connection to Hurricane Guillermo as well. One of my friends and longtime weather buddies as well as a KHOU Weather Forum follower is the Pilot of the C-130 transitioning today to Travis AFB in California and will depart tomorrow morning to sample Hurricane Guillermo enroute to Hickam Field in Oahu at Pearl Harbor where they will continue to fly RECON missions as long a Guillermo is as threat to Hawaii. We wish the crew a safe and successful flight across the Pacific.
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015
Guillermo's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized,
with well-defined convective banding and a fairly symmetric
upper-level outflow pattern. A recent GMI microwave image showed a
nearly closed low-level eyewall. The current intensity is set to 70
kt, based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
This makes Guillermo the fifth hurricane of the 2015 eastern North
Pacific season. Given that the hurricane should be moving over warm
waters, and in a moist mid-level environment with moderate shear,
further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast
is near or above the latest model consensus. Since the SHIPS-RI
index still indicates a significant probability of rapid
intensification over the next 24 hours, the NHC forecast could be
conservative. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity
forecast beyond 48-72 hours, since Guillermo could encounter
stronger shear, depending mainly on how far north the cyclone moves
late in the forecast period.
Based on geostationary and microwave center fixes, the initial
motion is west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. A mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should maintain the
west-northwestward motion for the next several days. In 48-72
hours, Guillermo should encounter a weakness in the ridge which
will likely cause some slowing of forward speed. However most of
the guidance does not show much of a turn to the right in response
to this weakness. The official track forecast is close to a
consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, with the former
model to the north of the latter near the end of the period. This
is similar to the previous NHC track.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 31 JULY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-066
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX HURRICANE GUILLERMO AT 02/1800Z AND 03/0600Z.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT AROUND
GUILLERMO FOR 03/0000Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX GUILLERMO AT 03/1800Z AND BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/0600Z.
B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 04/0000Z.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Hurricane Guillermo continues to move WNW toward Hawaii this morning. AF Hurricane Hurricane C-130 arrived at Hickam Field on Oahu yesterday and is scheduled to fly out and investigate Guillermo this morning. NOAA G-IV will depart Travis AFB in California this morning and begin synoptic high altitude surveillance today enroute to Hickam Field.
Interestingly the European model suggests at least 2 additional tropical systems may pose a threat to Hawaii over the next two to three weeks. The GFS is not as aggressive regarding future tropical development, but it will be worth monitoring during the next week or two.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
500 AM HST MON AUG 03 2015
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED
APPEARANCE TO GUILLERMO...WITH DEEP CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WHILE SAMPLING THE INNER CORE OF GUILLERMO LAST EVENING...FAILED TO
FIND FLIGHT LEVEL OR SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER. THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 4.0/65KT FROM PHFO...JTWC AND
SAB...WHILE FINAL T NUMBERS WERE LOWER AT 3.5. ADDITIONALLY...THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATED A CURRENT
INTENSITY T NUMBER OF 4.0 AND A FINAL T NUMBER OF 3.5. RELYING
HEAVILY ON THE FACT THAT THE AIRCRAFT FAILED TO FIND 64 KNOT WINDS
DURING THE MISSION LAST EVENING THROUGH GUILLERMO...ALONG WITH A
1220Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE CONTINUED
RAGGED PRESENTATION IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE 1500Z
INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...
GUILLERMO HAS WEAKENED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON A COUPLE
CENTER FIX POSITIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT MISSION LAST EVENING ALONG
WITH EXTRAPOLATION USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A
RESULT...THE CURRENT MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...300
DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM IS GUIDED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE NEARLY 1600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING ALOFT RUNNING ROUGHLY
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE RIGHT OR NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE IMPROVED SAMPLING
OF THE SYSTEM BY THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT ON ITS SYNOPTIC SAMPLING
MISSION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS HAS ALSO
INCREASED IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WE
HEAVILY RELIED ON A COMBINATION OF THE TVCN...GFS...AND THE HWRF
SOLUTIONS WITH A SIZEABLE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE RIGHT OR NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ADVISORY.
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED 14 KNOTS
FROM 270 DEGREES...WHILE THE LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS SHOWED 16 KNOTS
FROM 285 DEGREES. THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUED
RAGGED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...OUTFLOW
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WILL BECOME FURTHER DISRUPTED AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ICON...WITH SHIPS PREDICTING MORE RAPID
WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST AND INITIAL WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA LAST EVENING AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY TRENDS OF GUILLERMO.
AS GUILLERMO MOVES CLOSER TO HAWAII...WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WITH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT IS ALSO
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY
FROM THE CENTER.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION INTO GUILLERMO IS SCHEDULED
FOR THIS MORNING. THE VALUABLE DATA TRANSMITTED IN REAL-TIME FROM
THESE MISSIONS WILL HELP US TO BETTER DETERMINE THE LOCATION...
INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. IN ADDITION...THE NOAA
G-IV JET IS SCHEDULED TO CONDUCT ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION
AROUND GUILLERMO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SAMPLING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
THE MODEL INITIALIZATION AND IMPROVE THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS FOR
GUILLERMO.
