JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[MRG93415]

I think Bill is seriously Lazy...LOL

[nuby3]

appears to me, the center is headed nearly directly for Victoria, very very slowly

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...BILL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Port
Aransas and north of San Luis Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 96.8 West. Bill is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression by
Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center, mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

During the past hour, a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) was measured
at Palacios and Galveston, Texas. Several offshore oil rigs
continue to report sustained tropical-storm-force winds.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4
inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area to the northeast and east of the center.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet
Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. Recent reports indicate that
the water level at Port Lavaca, Texas, is about 3.5 feet above
normal. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of southeast and
east central Texas and western Louisiana tonight through early
Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[BlueJay]

Thanks for all of the valuable information everyone!
I think srain deserves a nice long nap!

[Ounce]

appears to me, the center is headed nearly directly for Victoria, very very slowly

I would tend to agree. Looks like it's found a steering current and might be heading for Flatonia, instead of Columbus.

(Does this mean that Bill is trying to get to Buc-ees in Luling?)

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) meso guidance is suggesting the potential of a core rain event overnight.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 419 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 530 PM. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MATAGORDA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT...
MARKHAM...BLESSING...MIDFIELD AND WADSWORTH.

[nuby3]

if Bill has been moving at all over the last hour, I can't tell.

[Ounce]

if Bill has been moving at all over the last hour, I can't tell.

Well, it looks to me as if a cell in Bloomington an hour ago is almost to Victoria. Bill's taking the scenic route.

[nuby3]

if Bill has been moving at all over the last hour, I can't tell.

Well, it looks to me as if a cell in Bloomington an hour ago is almost to Victoria. Bill's taking the scenic route.

looked to jog back east the last few frames

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM BILL LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AL022015
450 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEAST TEXAS

...**BILL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD**...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LIBERTY...HARRIS...CHAMBERS AND
GALVESTON HAS BEEN CANCELLED

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COLORADO...WHARTON...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MATAGORDA TX
- 28.4N 96.8W
- STORM INTENSITY 50 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM BILL IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING SOME AS
IT DOES. THE MAIN IMPACTS TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING RAINS AS BILL
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. AREAS FROM PALACIOS THROUGH COLLEGE STATION
MAY EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN WIND EVENT ARE NOW
UNFOLDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. REMAIN WELL SHELTERED FROM
HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING ADDITIONAL LIMITED IMPACTS. IF REALIZED,
THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* SURGE:POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN SURGE EVENT ARE NOW
UNFOLDING ACROSS MATAGORDA BAY AND ALONG THE COAST TO SURFSIDE
AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
SURGE HAVING ADDITIONAL LIMITED IMPACTS. IF REALIZED, THESE
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* FLOODING RAIN:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING RAIN ARE STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. REMAIN WELL GUARDED AGAINST DANGEROUS
FLOOD WATERS HAVING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER
CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS,
ARROYOS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS.
SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID
INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS
STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING RAIN ARE STILL UNFOLDING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IMPACTS FROM FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS BILL MOVES NORTH. AREAS TO
THE EAST MAY HAVE LESS IMPACT.

* TORNADOES:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TORNADOES ARE STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. REMAIN WELL BRACED AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE IMPACTS.
IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH POWER
AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS, CHIMNEYS
TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR OVERTURNED,
LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF, SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES
KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS
PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA
FOR WAVE RUN UP AND SURGE. HIGHWAY 87 HAS WATER ON IT AND A LOT OF
DEBRIS FROM WAVE RUN UP.

DO NOT BE A THRILL SEEKER OR RISK YOUR LIFE FOR SENSELESS PHOTOS
OR VIDEOS. BE WISE AND AVOID BECOMING ANOTHER STATISTIC. GALVESTON
BEACH PATROL HAS ALREADY REQUESTED PEOPLE TO KEEP AWAY FROM
BEACHES...JETTIES AND PIERS DUE TO WAVE ACTION AND RIP CURRENTS.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AROUND 11 PM CDT, OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
416 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015


.DISCUSSION...
TS BILL MOVING NORTH FINALLY AND FILLING QUICKLY FROM 999 TO 1002
MB AS OF 3 PM. STILL HAVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
REPORTED ON OFFSHORE PLATFORMS (OF COURSE THESE ARE ELEVATED
COMPARED TO STANDARD SENSOR HEIGHTS) WITH SUSTAINED 20-30 KNOT
AROUND FREEPORT TO GALVESTON BAY AND GUSTS 30-40 KTS. STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE AREA FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA BAY. STILL
HAVE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND DON`T ANTICIPATE
THIS COMING DOWN AS SHEAR PROFILE IS STILL DECENT ESPECIALLY GOING
INTO TONIGHT AS LLJ TRANSLATES INLAND AND NORTHWESTWARD OVER
AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HOUSTON SOUTHWESTWARD.

RAIN BAND WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM HIGH ISLAND TO NORTH HOUSTON
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
AT 330 WAS FROM AROUND HUNTSVILLE TO CLEVELAND THIS BAND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH. THE LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE THE
DEVELOPING BAND IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WITH THE MOISTURE SOURCE
COMING OUT OF THE VERY JUICY WEST CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THAT FLASH
FLOODING THREAT IS GOING TO INCREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT FOR AREAS
WEST OF A LINE FROM ANGLETON TO COLLEGE STATION. HAVE RAISED QPF
OVER THESE AREA AND 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE COMMON IN THIS
HIGHER RISK AREA AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 9-11 INCHES SEEMS
REACHABLE. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS TONIGHT. BY
SUNRISE THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF
COLLEGE STATION AND BRENHAM AREAS WESTWARD WITH A TAIL DOWN INTO
THE GULF MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH
WILL KEEP SETX IN THE MOIST AXIS AND SO STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING THROUGH THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT A MUCH LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
GOING INTO THURSDAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE DECREASING AS
STORMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND UPPER RIDGING TO THE
EAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS WESTWARD. THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HOT AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL SET UP OVER SETX BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM SAN LUIS PASS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED BUT WITH A LONG SLOW FALL
WITH THE COMING LOW TIDE THESE LEVELS SHOULD LOWER AND REMAIN
BELOW 4 FT ABOVE MLLW. BEACHES WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS AS SWELLS AND
RUNUP KEEP THE BEACHES FLOODED.

45

[ticka1]

so is the flood threat for houston lessen? Been away from computer last hour!

[nuby3]

so is the flood threat for houston lessen? Been away from computer last hour!

We are not out of the woods, especially on the west side and along the western edge of harris county westward they are gonna get a lot of rain along I-10 from hwy77 to Katy --looks to have jogged east lately

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/16/15 2200Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2145Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE WITH FOCUS TO THE NORTH AND NE OF TS BILL
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER SPE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS NOW INVOF CALHOUN COUNTY IN SE TX WITH INNER
BANDS SHOWING DEEPEST CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CENTERS
CIRCULATION. FLARE UP OF COLDEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
-68C AND PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO
REGION. 85H VWP'S SHOWING 40-50 KNOTS SE FLOW INTO DISCUSSION REGION
WITH BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING POOL OF 2.8" PWATS JUST OFFSHORE AND
A GENERAL 2.2-2.6" PWATS FOR MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION REGION. A MANUAL
SATELLITE ESTIMATE PROVIDES 1.3"/30 MIN RATES IN DEEPEST CORES WITH A
FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS SEEN IN THE VIS. WOULD EXPECT RATES OF 1-2"/HR
AND ISOLATED 2-3"/HR POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2200-0100Z..HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT INNER BANDS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TS BILL TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES NEXT 3 HOURS
AND BEYOND. FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAINS AT THIS TIME IS CENTERED INVOF
MATAGORDA/WHARTON AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES WHERE 1-2"/HR+ RATES ARE
POSSIBLE. WOULD EXPECT FF ISSUES TO REMAIN NEXT 3 HOURS WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD OCCUR.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like training band of rain encroaching on the SW/W periphery of Harris County. System doesn't seem to be making much Westward progress... Almost due north and stair stepping slightly NNE a little.

[ticka1]

so is the flood threat for houston lessen? Been away from computer last hour!

We are not out of the woods, especially on the west side and along the western edge of harris county westward they are gonna get a lot of rain along I-10 from hwy77 to Katy --looks to have jogged east lately

okay i am on east side

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
511 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-JACKSON TX-MATAGORDA TX-
511 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 505 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A FEEDER
BAND OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS MAY BE UPGRADED TO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IF
THIS BAND REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...PIERCE...VAN VLECK...DANEVANG AND LOUISE.

[nuby3]

I distinctly remember there being mention of a stall around Matagorda bay in one of the model runs

[srainhoutx]

I distinctly remember there being mention of a stall around Matagorda bay in one of the model runs

The Euro was 12 hours slower than the other computer guidance and a run or two suggested a stall...if I recall correctly. I stopped looking at the guidance completely yesterday and focused on satellite and radar data. Getting a bit concerned about our SW and Western areas. There is a lot of rain moving in with at least two feeder bands approaching as Bill lifts N.