JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[HouTXmetro]

Tornado Warning Chambers County

[mcheer23]

So many people saying "is it even going to rain" here in Sugar Land.

Oh how oblivious people are.

[Andrew]

That can not be good for us!

Both satellite and radar indicate that Bill is on the most outer edge of the East coast ridging which is resulting in a nearly stalled system. This is concerning for the Houston location since a line of very heavy rain remains just north of the region and will slowly push through as we head into the day.

What region are you referring to?

Houston Metro region and just SE Texas in general. As we head into the evening daytime heating is just going to add to instability and create more issues. Hopefully the cloud cover today will help limit a nocturnal event somewhat tonight, but a lot of models do indicate some sort of heavy rain could occur west of I-45 tonight. Still too early to say for sure though right now.

[Andrew]

Tornado watch issued.

[Texashawk]

Now seems to be moving just E of N? Strange storm.

[HouTXmetro]

I thought my eyes were deceiving me!!! I noticed the same.

[Andrew]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 115 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER COVE...OR NEAR BEACH CITY...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY...BEACH CITY...MONT BELVIEU...OLD RIVER-WINFREE
AND COVE.

[ticka1]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 115 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER COVE...OR NEAR BEACH CITY...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY...BEACH CITY...MONT BELVIEU...OLD RIVER-WINFREE
AND COVE.

this is where i live

[MRG93415]

Oh no, be safe!

[srainhoutx]

Latest Corpus Christi and Houston/Galveston radar composite loops suggests TS Bill very slowly moving N over Matagorda Bay.

[Ounce]

Latest Corpus Christi and Houston/Galveston radar composite loops suggests TS Bill very slowly moving N over Matagorda Bay.

Could it be that Bill is moving north over San Antonio Bay, just west of Matagorda Bay, by the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge? Just asking.

[Baseballdude2915]

Latest Corpus Christi and Houston/Galveston radar composite loops suggests TS Bill very slowly moving N over Matagorda Bay.

Could it be that Bill is moving north over San Antonio Bay, just west of Matagorda Bay, by the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge? Just asking.

Yep, looks like an NNE wobble for a few frames with part of the core of the system now in SW San Antonio Bay. Movement is so slow and with it still partially over water,it will maintain intensity longer than expected. Should drift NNW once the steering currents pick it up.

[BlueJay]

1.61 inches so far today.

[kellybell4770]

only sprinkles in Angleton

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the correction, Ounce. I see the center over Seadrift now. Did a lot of duck hunting down there back in the day. Also spent many weekends at Aransas National Wildlife Refuge watching Whooping Cranes migrate into during November back in the late 60's/early 70's. It's been a long few days...

[MRG93415]

Are we still going to get alot of rain this afternoon and overnight?

[srainhoutx]

Are we still going to get alot of rain this afternoon and overnight?

HGX believes the low will start tracking N through Jackson, Wharton, Colorado Counties on up into the Brazos River Valley this afternoon and tonight. They are also concerned about the long fetch deep tropical moisture all the way back into the Bay of Campeche and Tampico possibly developing additional convection across the area the next 24 to 36 hours.

06162015 mcd0226.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0226
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST TX...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 161918Z - 170018Z

SUMMARY...STRONG CONVECTIVE INNER/OUTER BANDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST TX. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
SUGGESTED BY LOCAL RADARS. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
BANDS WILL RAISE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN
MORE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM BILL IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
ALONG THE TX COAST. THE BLENDED-TPW PRODUCT PORTRAYS A SIGNIFICANT
SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MX. THE 17Z
GPS SOUNDER DATA INDICATES NEARLY 2.50 INCH PWATS IN THE VICINITY
OF GALVESTON BAY WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3
SIGMAS. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE IN PLACE...12Z
RAOBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ANCHORING THE LOWEST 3 KM OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDS ALIGNING ALONG THIS MOISTURE AXIS
WILL LEAD TO TRAINING/REPEAT CONVECTION WHICH ALREADY APPEARS
UNDERWAY IN SOUTHEAST TX. A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH FREEZING
LEVELS UP AROUND 15 TO 16 KFT PER 12Z RAOBS FROM CRP/LCH INDICATE
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION IS
LIKELY. WHILE CURRENT 1-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY NOT
EXCEEDED THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE...EXPECT THESE VALUES TO COME UP
AS THE BANDING BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.

HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY THROUGH 00Z. SUCH CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION SLOWLY
EXPANDING INLAND.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...

[MRG93415]

Thanks!!

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 302...

VALID 162006Z - 162200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 302 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED...GENERALLY BRIEF...TORNADOES
CONTINUES...AND MAY INCREASE THROUGH 21-00Z.

DISCUSSION...AFTER MIGRATING WESTWARD INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CORPUS CHRISTI...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF
BILL HAS TAKEN A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY INLAND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHEASTERLY 850-700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH A
GROWING AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN
THE PEAK LATE AFTERNOON TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY PROBABLY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...BOTH WITHIN OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS PIVOTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND WITHIN
DISCRETE CELLS FORMING BETWEEN BANDS.

..KERR.. 06/16/2015


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

[ticka1]

Is Bill moving at all or stationary?