JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[wxman57]

I've been stuck at the airport in Chicago for 12 hours now. Trying to fly back to Houston tonight. Hope I can beat Bill to Texas.

I'm thinking landfall a little east of Matagorda Bay as a 50-60kt TS . Could be a little less intense. That may mean possible 35-45 mph winds for south Houston with higher gusts. Could cause a few power outages. Winds shouldn't carry too far inland. Maybe 5-8" rainfall (if we're lucky it won't be more).

[Baseballdude2915]

I've been stuck at the airport in Chicago for 12 hours now. Trying to fly back to Houston tonight. Hope I can beat Bill to Texas.

I'm thinking landfall a little east of Matagorda Bay as a 50-60kt TS . Could be a little less intense. That may mean possible 35-45 mph winds for south Houston with higher gusts. Could cause a few power outages. Winds shouldn't carry too far inland. Maybe 5-8" rainfall (if we're lucky it won't be more).

Nice to hear from you on the board! Been seeing your posts over at S2K, what a mess you have had to endure up there at the airport. Hope you get home safe!

[Scott747]

Forward motion appears to have slowed somewhat.

Just breezy at the beach. Winds were actually light given there is a TS not that far offshore. Water is up and Blue Water Highway will probably be under water by early morning.

[Andrew]

Forward motion appears to have slowed somewhat.

Just breezy at the beach. Winds were actually light given there is a TS not that far offshore. Water is up and Blue Water Highway will probably be under water by early morning.

Ironic because NWS says it has increased speed slightly at the 1am update.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160548
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
100 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 95.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[Scott747]

lol

I've tried to play nice with the NHC today...

[Andrew]

lol

I've tried to play nice with the NHC today...

Just based on radar, their center location looks to be a little far west. Certainly faster than 13 miles per hour.

[mcheer23]

Lol it sped up...What?

[wxman57]

1:30am and still stuck at Chicago airport (14hrs).

Bill is looking more impressive on satellite. Fair outflow to the NW now. Could be a strong TS at landfall east of Matagorda Bay tomorrow, scratch that, THIS afternoon.

[Andrew]

1:30am and still stuck at Chicago airport (14hrs).

Bill is looking more impressive on satellite. Fair outflow to the NW now. Could be a strong TS at landfall east of Matagorda Bay tomorrow, scratch that, THIS afternoon.

Hopefully you will get out of there soon.

You think it will be after noon before it makes landfall?

[Katdaddy]

TS Bill looking a little better early this morning as it comes into view on the Houston-Galveston weather radar. Tropical Storm Warnings have been included for some inland counties of SE and S Central TX.

1AM TS Bill Summary:..TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 95.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[cisa]

I looks like is nearly stationary and is getting better organized any chance it's turning more NNW
.

[djjordan]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CHm67TfUMAArzI3.jpg

Best guess of where the center may be at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning gang. Looking at the latest satellite and radar trends, it appears Bill is slowing slightly as the influence of the upper ridge to our East is beginning to impinge on the Eastern side of the storm as well as the trough to our West near the Edwards Plateau creates a channel for potential landfall between Matagorda Bay (Bay City) and Brazoria County near or just to the West of Surfside/Freeport. That raises the concern that the main core of the heaviest rainfall could track along and West of HWY 288 into Metro Houston and along and West of the I-45 Corridor. This raises concern for a good 24 to 36 hours of very heavy training rainfall with isolated tornadoes along and East of the track of the center of Bill. I am particularly concerned about the daytime hours into tomorro w into the night time hours of early Wednesday as some of the guidance suggests the potential of a core rain event across portions of Western Harris/ Austin/Waller/Washington/Grimes Counties as well as Montgomery and Walker Counties. There is a couple of feeder bands S of Bill that also raise an eyebrow after Bill moves inland. Rainfall associated with the center of Bill are nearing the Upper Texas Coast at this hour and rainfall will increase as daytime heating becomes an issue. For our neighbors in the Austin area, I am a bit concerned that the trough along the I-35 Corridor develops during the day on Tuesday. Remember, there is no way to accurately predict the exact track or locations that will receive the heaviest rainfall or the heaviest rainfall rates. We'll be here tracking the radar trends and providing the latest updates as they become available. Stay safe and Turn Around, Don't Drown!

[Andrew]

Good morning gang. Looking at the latest satellite and radar trends, it appears Bill is slowing slightly as the influence of the upper ridge to our East is beginning to impinge on the Eastern side of the storm as well as the trough to our West near the Edwards Plateau creates a channel for potential landfall between Matagorda Bay (Bay City) and Brazoria County near or just to the West of Surfside/Freeport. That raises the concern that the main core of the heaviest rainfall could track along and West of HWY 288 into Metro Houston and along and West of the I-45 Corridor. This raises concern for a good 24 to 36 hours of very heavy training rainfall with isolated tornadoes along and East of the track of the center of Bill. I am particularly concerned about the daytime hours into tomorro w into the night time hours of early Wednesday as some of the guidance suggests the potential of a core rain event across portions of Western Harris/ Austin/Waller/Washington/Grimes Counties as well as Montgomery and Walker Counties. There is a couple of feeder bands S of Bill that also raise an eyebrow after Bill moves inland. Rainfall associated with the center of Bill are nearing the Upper Texas Coast at this hour and rainfall will increase as daytime heating becomes an issue. For our neighbors in the Austin area, I am a bit concerned that the trough along the I-35 Corridor develops during the day on Tuesday. Remember, there is no way to accurately predict the exact track or locations that will receive the heaviest rainfall or the heaviest rainfall rates. We'll be here tracking the radar trends and providing the latest updates as they become available. Stay safe and Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Some of the Hi-res guidance like the HRRR is picking up on a more northern movement as the influence of ridging breaks down. It also delays landfall until early afternoon/ late morning.

[Andrew]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 95.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 95.7 West. Bill is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the
center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning area
along the Texas coast later this morning and move inland over
south-central Texas this afternoon and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall.
Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland later today, and
Bill is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4
to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4
inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area in a few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet
Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of
eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Andrew]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 160848
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Bill has changed little in organization on satellite images over
the past several hours. Most of the deep convection is occurring
over the eastern semicircle. Radar data show some banding features
over the southern portion of the circulation. Surface observations
over the western Gulf of Mexico suggest that the intensity remains
near 45 kt. Since there is little time remaining before the center
reaches the coast, no significant increase in strength is likely
before landfall. Weakening will commence later today after the
center moves inland over Texas. There are some differences in the
evolution of the cyclone over the U.S. in the global models over the
next few days. The official forecast shows the circulation
dissipating within 5 days, which is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
predictions.

The initial motion estimate, 310/11, has changed little from the
previous advisory. Bill should be steered mainly by the flow
around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high
centered over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two.
Thereafter, mid-level westerlies should cause Bill's remnant low to
turn northeastward to east-northeastward. Most of the dynamical
track models are in good agreement, and the official forecast is
closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Given that Bill has a broad circulation, one should not focus on the
exact track, since strong winds and heavy rains are occurring well
away from the center. To reiterate, the main hazard from Bill
should be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern
Texas over the next day or two. Please see products from your local
National Weather Service office for more information on the flood
threat.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 29.0N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 30.6N 97.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 32.6N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 34.5N 96.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0600Z 36.3N 94.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 20/0600Z 39.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Andrew]

94ewbg (2).gif

[srainhoutx]

3:00AM Briefing from Jeff:

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay, TX to High Island, TX

Discussion:
Evening aircraft found sustained tropical storm force winds mainly east of the center and a well enough defined center to finally upgrade the system. Several oil platforms in the NW Gulf of Mexico off the upper TX coast have been gusting between 35-45mph overnight and Galveston has gusted to 38mph.

Center of the circulation is clearly noted on Houston radar nearing Matagorda Bay with a batch of heavy thunderstorms centered to the SE of the center. Rain bands have been slowly increasing over the last few hours, but to this point have remained on the weak side.

Main threat continues to be heavy rainfall and high coastal tides that could produce overwash this morning.

Rainfall:
Will not be making any changes to the rainfall forecast with widespread 5-7” still expected and isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. Heavy rains will onset this morning and the region will be under the potential for excessive rainfall into Wednesday…so do not let your guard down.

Tides:
Total water levels along the coast and in Galveston Bay are running 2.5-3.5 feet. Morgan’s Point is running 2.3 ft and Galveston North Jetty is current 3.2 ft. High tide this morning between 300am-700am will likely feature total water levels of 4.0-5.0 ft which could result in overwash on Bolivar, western Galveston Island, and the western shore of Galveston Bay.

Tides will remain elevated much of today (Tuesday) due to strong onshore winds.

NHC Storm Surge Inundation Graphic (sea water above ground level):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

Winds:
Large area of TS force winds is spreading into the coastal waters and will begin to impact the coast over the next several hours. Winds of 35-45mph along the coast are likely including Galveston and Matagorda Bays with 25-35mph inland.

[ticka1]

Good Morning looks like TS bill played nice and did not strengthen. Are there any closures today or business as usual? answered that myself -its business as normal -metro is running.

[MRG93415]

Well, I dont know what to do. I work downtown and after the mayors speech I know my office will not close. I dont want to get stuck downtown due to flooding. Is the metro area gonna be impacted bad or will that area just get miminal rain?