More cold air on the way next week!?

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sleetstorm
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Portastorm wrote:
sleetstorm wrote:Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?
Sleet, it will be pumping warm gulf air over our heads ... and slowly but surely working its way down to the surface so that the entire air column is saturated.
That was not the way that is was during last December fourth's snowstorm or December tenth of 2008? So what is different about this time?
sleetstorm
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The wave of low pressure that generated the snowstorm of December tenth 2008 was completely over land.
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wxman57
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This passing feature doesn't have nearly the cold air aloft that the December 2008 feature did. As the wave approaches, south and southeasterly winds in the lower levels (just above the surface) will advect warmer air aloft. Too warm for any significant winter precip here. Once the low/wave axis passes, the air aloft will cool. But the moisture will decrease very quickly after the low passes.

So, for Houston, lots (and lots) of cold miserable rain from tomorrow evening through late Thursday night, possibly mixed with a few sleet pellets at times.

But winter isn't over. Long-range guidance suggests some very cold air moving south out of Canada late next week, and that cold pattern may persist for a while. The southern stream will probably remain active. It's just a matter of timing as far as any future winter precip chances here this month.
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wxman57
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sleetstorm wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
sleetstorm wrote:Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?
Sleet, it will be pumping warm gulf air over our heads ... and slowly but surely working its way down to the surface so that the entire air column is saturated.
That was not the way that is was during last December fourth's snowstorm or December tenth of 2008? So what is different about this time?
The difference is in the vertical profile of the atmosphere over Houston ahead of each feature. The air aloft was significantly colder ahead of the 2008 system, enough so that the low-level warm advection wasn't enough to bring the air column aloft above freezing.
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C2G
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Great, more cold, cloudy, wet weather.
I have never wanted spring and summer as much as this year.
You know it would be almost tolerable with a snowflake now and then..........but noooooo.
sleetstorm
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wxman57 wrote:This passing feature doesn't have nearly the cold air aloft that the December 2008 feature did. As the wave approaches, south and southeasterly winds in the lower levels (just above the surface) will advect warmer air aloft. Too warm for any significant winter precip here. Once the low/wave axis passes, the air aloft will cool. But the moisture will decrease very quickly after the low passes.

So, for Houston, lots (and lots) of cold miserable rain from tomorrow evening through late Thursday night, possibly mixed with a few sleet pellets at times.

But winter isn't over. Long-range guidance suggests some very cold air moving south out of Canada late next week, and that cold pattern may persist for a while. The southern stream will probably remain active. It's just a matter of timing as far as any future winter precip chances here this month.
Okay, thank you, wxman57. Now, how many hours of sleet, snow, or rain snow mix could southeast Texas get prior all it turns to liquid from around noon to evening? And how many hours during the evening before all of the precipitation exits Texas?
poobear55
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what's up? no replies since 7:37. trying to post to see if something is wrong with forum.
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after reading everyone's post this afternoon i thought this event was close but no cigar. then i watched the news tonight and gene norman seemed to be hyping or teasing us with a better chance for some type of frozen precip. so i got on line to see if something had changed. to get the real scoop. i am surprised at the lack of activity. i guess it really is a non-event.
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wxdata
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poobear55 wrote:after reading everyone's post this afternoon i thought this event was close but no cigar. then i watched the news tonight and gene norman seemed to be hyping or teasing us with a better chance for some type of frozen precip. so i got on line to see if something had changed. to get the real scoop. i am surprised at the lack of activity. i guess it really is a non-event.
Since the NAM and GFS has been downers on snow chances here, interest has waned a bit..
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Funny how as some of the models are downplaying the event, some of the local mets, including the fellow from Fox26, are giving the idea an uptick. The fact of the matter is, noone knows for sure about the winter precip. possibilities just yet. Everybody has their own idea, but all of it is just speculation.

Wednesday night will tell us much, but even then things could change as quickly as the night before. That is just how it is down here. You will not find much going on in this forum unless there is more certainty than we have now. Watching the models flip/flop gets old after a while.
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