May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Heavy Rainfall is gradually ending across Harris County.

Rainfall this morning has averaged 2-3 inches over northwest Harris County resulting in widespread street flooding and rises on areas watersheds.

Minor overbank flooding is ongoing along:

Upper Little Cypress Creek
Upper Spring Creek
Cypress Creek

West Fork San Jacinto River:
Lake Conroe is now up to 8660cfs. Moderate to major flooding is expected along the west fork from Porter to Humble. Subdivision that may become cut off: Rivercrest, Nortshore, Belleau Woods, Forest Cove

East Fork San Jacinto River:
Flood wave is moving downstream. Minor flooding is possible later this week at FM 1485

San Jacinto River (below Lake Houston):
River will rise above flood stage on Thursday and remain above flood stage until this weekend with a crest near 11.2 ft on Saturday. Possible subdivision that may become cut off: Rio Villa and Banana Bend.

[biffb816]

So is there any possibility of a drying trend in the semi-near future? Not sure I can teach my tomatoes to swim. May have to convert from raised beds to hydroponic gardening.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1115 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1114 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUNSET
VALLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...BEE CAVE...WEST LAKE HILLS...
ROLLINGWOOD...MANSFIELD DAM...BARTON CREEK...HUDSON BEND...SUNSET
VALLEY...CAMP MABRY AND LOST CREEK.

[srainhoutx]

So is there any possibility of a drying trend in the semi-near future? Not sure I can teach my tomatoes to swim. May have to convert from raised beds to hydroponic gardening.

Possibly as we enter June we may get a break, but that remains to be seen.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1119 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1119 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TWIN
SISTERS...OR NEAR BLANCO...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLANCO...PAYTON AND TWIN SISTERS.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Warning coming for Blanco County in Central Texas. Tornado is confirmed just E of 281.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1146 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TWIN
SISTERS...OR NEAR BLANCO...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO JUST EAST OF U.S.
281 NEAR LITTLE BLANCO ROAD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLANCO AND PAYTON AROUND 1230 PM CDT.

[unome]

trying to remain thankful that we've not had to water our lawn this year and our trees are not dying, after just mowing for the 4th time in 1 wk... gotta keep those mosquitos from having a place to hide & breed...

[jojotheidiotclown]

This rain is not good for many people. Just like droughts it causes much damage. Lots of folks to not be able to work. Construction comes to a standstill and property is destroyed by floods. I am sick of the rain.

I fear giant mosquitoes in the near future. My kids are about to be out of school and will be stuck inside further driving me crazy. Please send the 95 degree sunny days! Enough of this wet stuff.

[redneckweather]

Jojo, stop whining about because it ain't gonna do you no good. You just have to roll with the punches. You can't do a thing about it.

[djjordan]

Srain..... Any ideas of what the next 24 hours hold? I'm gonna be on the road often between Lake Conroe and Sugar Land for the next few days.

[Ptarmigan]

How the recent floods compare to Houston's other catastrophic rainstorms
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weath ... 290238.php

How the recent floods compare to past events like December 1913 (reminds me of December 1991 flooding as it occurred in El Nino), 1921, 1935, 1949, 1952, 1954, 1967, 1970, 1972, 1979, 1994, 1998, and 2001.

[srainhoutx]

Srain..... Any ideas of what the next 24 hours hold? I'm gonna be on the road often between Lake Conroe and Sugar Land for the next few days.

I'm watching the weekend with a stalling boundary djjordan. I think that is our next weather worry for a heavy rainfall potential. We will see.

[Paul Robison]

Dear Brooks Garner:

Interesting tidbit from HGX disco:

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TRACKING 2 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST OVER THE DESERT SW AND
THE SECOND OVER THE INTER MTN WEST. THE FIRST LOOKS TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. PRECIP WATER VALUES
COULD RANGE FROM 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OF 2.2 INCHES. THE TROUGH WILL
STILL PROVIDE LIFT AND COOLING ALOFT. TEMPS AT 500MB DROP TO
AROUND -10 TO -12C WHILE CAPPING WEAKENS WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT.
AGAIN THE ISSUE WILL NOT BE SO MUCH HOW MUCH PRECIP BUT HOW
QUICKLY RAINFALL OCCURS. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES AN HR SO WILL NEED TO AGAIN LOOK AT FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PRODUCING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNALS
IN QPF OUTPUT (Good?) BUT PATTERN CERTAINLY SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR SE TX.(Threat is different from reality)

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SE TX
ALONG WITH A SECOND TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY WILL ONLY ADD MORE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL AGAIN BE MONITORED FOR FLOOD WATCHES BUT LARGELY DEPENDS ON
HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES FRIDAY. AGAIN THE CAP WILL BE WEAK...TROUGH
AXIS WILL NOT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA YET AND DEEP MOISTURE
WILL STILL CONVERGE ALONG THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO
LINGER OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY SO SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH MAY HELP SUPPRESS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (you think so?) OR AT
LEAST LOWER THE CHANCE. (some wx people say that the pattern that caused Houston a problem is now shifting east) GIVEN THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE ARE AND DEEP MOISTURE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...FORECAST WILL KEEP A LEAST SOME CHANCES GOING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


BTW: This is a little out in left field, but I'll ask anyway:

Brooks, I have a friend who works for the Flood Control District. He says that some the current flooding issues are exacerbated when people throw their garbage down storm drains. Is he right?

[Katdaddy]

A nice quiet radar continues this morning across Central and SE TX.. Additional development may occur later this afternoon and evening across NW TX. The Houston-Galveston NWS mentions 2 possible rounds of thunderstorms late tonight and again tomorrow. At this point we will need to watch what develops upstream today. For the weekend a weak front comes into play early Sunday morning which could serve as the focus for additional development.

[srainhoutx]

What a difference we have in the Drought department. The Updated Drought Monitor dated May 26th which does not include rainfall yesterday. Then look back to September 2011 when we were on fire across the Lone Star State.

[BlueJay]

Those drought maps are overwhelming!

[tireman4]

HGX AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281100
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS DOMINATE ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS PERSIST OVER THE SW ZONES WITH DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS AT
KCXO/KUTS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND CIGS WILL
ERODE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
16Z. PW VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.5-1.7 INCHES THIS AFTN SO CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 08Z-10Z BUT MODELS PERFORMING KINDA POOR AS OF LATE SO NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER MORNING IS UNDERWAY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING... WITH DRY CONDITIONS... LIGHT S/SE WINDS... AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S AS OF 3 AM CDT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
DOES SHOW A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED ALONG A DUMONT...TX TO
HOBART...OK LINE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS COMPLEX GIVEN THE REGION/S PRESENT
SENSITIVITY TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BUT WITH INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A WARMING TREND IN CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES... THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY... 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN
UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL HELP LIMIT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAP GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE AND
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO RISE BACK
TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON... CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENTLY ROTATING ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE STATE LATE TONIGHT... A SPLIT JET/
DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH LIFT OVERSPREADING THE REGION... WITH TWO
POSSIBLE ROUNDS FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COULD SEE
NORTHWEST TEXAS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS
THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH E/SE TO CLIP WESTERN/
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED LIFT DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH /AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR/... BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN UNSATURATED AND
SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN /HIGH 1000-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS/ REMAIN DISPLACED FROM EACH
OTHER IN LOCATION. WHILE AN ISOLATED EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORM CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY... NOT CONFIDENT IN A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THE MOMENT. GIVEN HOW SATURATED
THE GROUND IS... HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
POTENTIAL FLOODING THREATS ON FRIDAY.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... SENDING A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL REALLY BE MORE OF A WIND
SHIFT... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY /HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING... STALLING NORTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK... THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF ANOTHER PASSING
DISTURBANCE INTO A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK... WITH A MORE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW PLACING
THE REGION IN A MORE SUBSIDENT AND DRIER PATTERN. STILL SEVERAL
DAYS TO REFINE THIS... BUT ONLY HIGHLIGHTING 10-20 POPS IN THE
EXTENDED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE EXTENDED.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SE NEW
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI
NIGHT SO STRONGER NOCTURNAL WINDS EXPECTED WITH A SCEC POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS BUT THE WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS NEXT MON/TUES.
43

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Major river flooding is in progress on nearly every river in SE TX.

Evacuations are underway at several locations.

Brazos River:

Evacuations possible today

Major river flood is likely with near record crest forecast at Richmond. Residents along the River from above I-10 to below Rosharon should be prepared for significant flooding and impacts. US 59 turn-around on east side river is closed until further notice. Significant backwater is inundating portions of Rabbs Bayou, Bullhead Slough and Big Creek in Fort Bend County. Extensive flow into Oyster Creek is likely. Subdivisions not levee protected upstream and downstream of Richmond/Sugar Land will be flooded including areas of Valley Lodge and Thompson.

River is forecast to rise to 50.1ft at Richmond (record crest is 50.3ft Oct 1994). Flood Stage is 48.0 ft

At Rosharon the river is forecast to rise to 50.2ft. Flood stage is 43.0 ft. Residents may become isolated and trapped near/around Rosharon.

The attachment 05282015 Jeff 1 unnamed.png is no longer available

Colorado River:

Evacuation in effect for 300 homes on the west side of the City of Wharton.

Major river flood is possible at Wharton. River will rise over flood stage today and possibly crest near 45.5ft this weekend (flood stage is 39 ft). Hydrograph is tracing slightly under the forecast, but upstream forecast is verifying well at Columbus.

West Fork of San Jacinto River:

Major flooding is in progress and will continue into the weekend with numerous roads under water. River will slowly fall back within banks by early next week.

East Fork of San Jacinto River:

Still expected to rise and crest near flood stage early Saturday

San Jacinto River (Below Lake Houston):

Rise above flood stage later today and crest late this weekend and slowly fall back within banks early next week. Roadway impacts likely and already occurring in Banana Bend and Rio Villa

Trinity River:

Flooding is ongoing along nearly the entire river from below Dallas to Galveston Bay. Major flooding is ongoing at Liberty with several subdivisions cut-off. River will remain in major flood at Liberty for the next week at least.

[/i]

[tireman4]

Man, these next few days (Friday-Sunday) will be dicey at best. What does form will have the potential for heavy downpours. Where they form confounds the mets (Srain, Andrew, Brooks, Wxman57 and David), so forecasting is a nightmare. Ughh.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS through 84 hours is suggesting 1 to 3 inches of rainfall may be possible. As we know, the computer guidance particularly the shorter range meso guidance is not performing well at all, so we'll need to monitor that frontal boundary during the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center has outline a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in their Day 2 and Day 3 Outlooks this morning.