About as serious of a flood threat as this area has seen in a while. Global models really pound the area with high QPF. EURO shows upwards of 7 inches over Houston area Sunday PM-Monday...ouch. GFS shows 2-3 inches.
With rivers at their breaking points, and lakes full flooding is almost certain even with totals half of what is being suggested.
May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region
They picked a really bad year to do construction along my street in my subdivision. It's already a muddy mess and with all the rain lately, they've had to pump water out because they have the whole storm drain system torn up. Afraid this weekends rains are only gonna make matters worse in my neighborhood.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
-
Paul Robison
Well, maybe there's a little ray of hope (little!) if Henry Margusity of Accuweather is right. He disagrees with the SPC putting all of southern TX (includes SE TX, keep in mind) in a slight (15%) risk area. Margusity feels there's probably going to be a lot more going on in terms of severe weather as tup in Oklahoma, Kansas and N & C Texas as the Low-pressure trough comes on out (Mexico, right?) Shame on SPC for not really showing that!djjordan wrote:They picked a really bad year to do construction along my street in my subdivision. It's already a muddy mess and with all the rain lately, they've had to pump water out because they have the whole storm drain system torn up. Afraid this weekends rains are only gonna make matters worse in my neighborhood.
Here's the link:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... d/47530225
Let me know if this is a helpful tidbit and if Henry Margusity is on to something there ASAP. FWIW, I (personally) can deal with heavy rain, but storms with 60 mph winds? N.O.
As proof of my visit:
Again, hope I did y'all a favor.
-
Paul Robison
I thought I just posted Accuweather's severe wx. expert's opinion that it might not be, BlueJay.BlueJay wrote:i am hoping that the weather isn't as bad as some have forecasted. We will have to wait and see.
It is best to be watchful and prepared.
Day 2 outlook continues Slight Risk across much of Southern and SE Texas
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...
CORRECTED PROBABILITY GRAPHIC.
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
REGIME. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
EJECTING TROUGH. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. IT/S NOT CLEAR
IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
FLOW. A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
..DARROW.. 05/23/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0932Z (4:32AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
HGX issues Flash Flood Watch from tonight through Monday evening.........
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.
* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
* A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX WILL TAP INTO
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION. TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FIRST SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS MONDAY. THESE
STORMS MAY HIT THE SAME AREAS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE
RAIN RATES. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 11 INCHES ARE LIKELY.
* IMPACTS...WITH THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA SATURATED AND THE
LARGER RIVER SWOLLEN FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH AS IS THE THREAT OF
MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING. THE INTENSE RAIN RATES AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS IN QUICK
SUCCESSION WILL PRODUCE STREET FLOODING. OVER TIME THE RIVER MAY
CLIMB OUT OF BANKS WITH MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
MAJOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.
* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
* A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX WILL TAP INTO
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION. TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FIRST SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS MONDAY. THESE
STORMS MAY HIT THE SAME AREAS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE
RAIN RATES. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 11 INCHES ARE LIKELY.
* IMPACTS...WITH THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA SATURATED AND THE
LARGER RIVER SWOLLEN FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH AS IS THE THREAT OF
MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING. THE INTENSE RAIN RATES AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS IN QUICK
SUCCESSION WILL PRODUCE STREET FLOODING. OVER TIME THE RIVER MAY
CLIMB OUT OF BANKS WITH MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
MAJOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Lake Charles also issues a Flash Flood Watch for SW Louisiana and SE Texas!!!!
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...VERNON AND WEST CAMERON. IN TEXAS...
HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON AND TYLER.
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WEST LOUISIANA. AREA AVERAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
* AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME COULD
RECEIVE FLOOD WATER TO DEPTHS THAT WOULD IMPACT PROPERTY AND
PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS. AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RISES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...VERNON AND WEST CAMERON. IN TEXAS...
HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON AND TYLER.
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WEST LOUISIANA. AREA AVERAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
* AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME COULD
RECEIVE FLOOD WATER TO DEPTHS THAT WOULD IMPACT PROPERTY AND
PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS. AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RISES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
If someone can take a snapshot of the flashflood watch area, I think it's worth keeping. I'm not sure if I've seen one that large. It covers almost all of Texas and Oklahoma, and stretches up to northern Missouri.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
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- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A beautiful Saturday morning across SE TX but changes are a coming. A significant flood event along with severe weather continue to look possible Sunday through Tuesday. The size of the Flash Flood Watch has increased in coverage across TX and OK. I don't believe I have ever seen such a large Flash Flood Watch. Just about all of TX and OK are under a Flash Flood Watch through the Memorial holiday. All but far W TX and extreme N Panhandle are not included in this watch. In addition, the SPC has highlighted a large portion of TX for a slight risk area. This includes SE TX and the Upper TX Coast for Sunday and Monday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. For now, get outside and enjoy the mostly sunny morning skies.
- Attachments
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- SPC Slight Risk Monday
- Screen Shot 2015-05-23 at 7.49.04 AM.png (11.87 KiB) Viewed 3900 times
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- SPC Slight Risk Sunday
- Screen Shot 2015-05-23 at 7.48.57 AM.png (13.03 KiB) Viewed 3900 times
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- SE TX Flash Flood Watch
- Screen Shot 2015-05-23 at 7.29.35 AM.png (40.81 KiB) Viewed 3900 times
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- Flash Flood Watches
- Screen Shot 2015-05-23 at 7.30.04 AM.png (24.54 KiB) Viewed 3900 times
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Morning briefing from Jeff:
***Serious Flash Flood situation developing Sun-Tues***
***Rainfall amounts 3-5 inches widespread isolated 8-11 inches isolated***
***Major river flooding likely***
Powerful upper level storm system will bring highly active weather to TX starting today and lasting through Tuesday. There is high potential for flooding rainfall resulting in flash flooding and river flooding. Severe weather including weak tornadoes will also be possible.
An unusually strong upper level storm system will combine with copious Gulf moisture (PWS rising to near 2.1 inches) Sunday to produce widespread excessive rainfall on top of already saturated soils. Strong jet stream dynamics will come to bear across the region starting late tonight which will result in a rapid increase in thunderstorms. Air mass will be nearly saturated by Sunday morning at the same time a large thunderstorm complex approaches from the west. This complex will slowly move across the region on Sunday and likely produce periods of cell training. Favorable low level inflow of 20-25kts will help maintain moisture input into the system. Low level shear increases which may result in a few weak tornadoes. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches per hour are likely leading to rapid flooding.
Should see this complex push east of the area by Sunday evening, but east-west boundary will likely be left somewhere between the coast and I-10 overnight. Very concerned that with increasing low level jet after midnight Sunday perpendicular into this boundary that excessive rainfall producing thunderstorms may re-develop directly over SE TX during the 100am-700am Monday. Again hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches would certainly be possible with some hourly rates nearing 5.0 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude is going to lead to extremely serious flash flooding.
Another strong upper air disturbance near Washington state will head for the region Monday with yet another large round of storms likely. It is unclear how the Sunday night-Monday night period will play out as much depends on if we see development early Monday morning. Shortwave lift appears fairly strong on Monday so this does support more development. Will just have to watch how things unfold since the meso scale will become a big driver on location and development by Sunday night.
Rainfall Amounts:
Guidance numbers are scary and WPC 5 day QPF is about just as bad. GFS and ECMWF really pound the area Sunday-Monday with the ECWMF showing 5-7 inches of rainfall over SE TX and the GFS 3-4 inches. WPC graphics show 5-8 inches over the next 5 days….much of which will fall Sunday-Tuesday.
Will go with widespread amounts of 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 8-11 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude is going to cause flooding and potentially very serious flooding. Major river flooding is also likely with this rainfall into next week with nearly all the rivers already very high or into flood.
Residents across the region and state are urged to prepare for significant rainfall and flooding today-Tuesday. This includes flash flooding, creek and bayou flooding, and river flooding. Never drive through a flooded roadway….always Turn Around…Don’t Drown.
***Serious Flash Flood situation developing Sun-Tues***
***Rainfall amounts 3-5 inches widespread isolated 8-11 inches isolated***
***Major river flooding likely***
Powerful upper level storm system will bring highly active weather to TX starting today and lasting through Tuesday. There is high potential for flooding rainfall resulting in flash flooding and river flooding. Severe weather including weak tornadoes will also be possible.
An unusually strong upper level storm system will combine with copious Gulf moisture (PWS rising to near 2.1 inches) Sunday to produce widespread excessive rainfall on top of already saturated soils. Strong jet stream dynamics will come to bear across the region starting late tonight which will result in a rapid increase in thunderstorms. Air mass will be nearly saturated by Sunday morning at the same time a large thunderstorm complex approaches from the west. This complex will slowly move across the region on Sunday and likely produce periods of cell training. Favorable low level inflow of 20-25kts will help maintain moisture input into the system. Low level shear increases which may result in a few weak tornadoes. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches per hour are likely leading to rapid flooding.
Should see this complex push east of the area by Sunday evening, but east-west boundary will likely be left somewhere between the coast and I-10 overnight. Very concerned that with increasing low level jet after midnight Sunday perpendicular into this boundary that excessive rainfall producing thunderstorms may re-develop directly over SE TX during the 100am-700am Monday. Again hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches would certainly be possible with some hourly rates nearing 5.0 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude is going to lead to extremely serious flash flooding.
Another strong upper air disturbance near Washington state will head for the region Monday with yet another large round of storms likely. It is unclear how the Sunday night-Monday night period will play out as much depends on if we see development early Monday morning. Shortwave lift appears fairly strong on Monday so this does support more development. Will just have to watch how things unfold since the meso scale will become a big driver on location and development by Sunday night.
Rainfall Amounts:
Guidance numbers are scary and WPC 5 day QPF is about just as bad. GFS and ECMWF really pound the area Sunday-Monday with the ECWMF showing 5-7 inches of rainfall over SE TX and the GFS 3-4 inches. WPC graphics show 5-8 inches over the next 5 days….much of which will fall Sunday-Tuesday.
Will go with widespread amounts of 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 8-11 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude is going to cause flooding and potentially very serious flooding. Major river flooding is also likely with this rainfall into next week with nearly all the rivers already very high or into flood.
Residents across the region and state are urged to prepare for significant rainfall and flooding today-Tuesday. This includes flash flooding, creek and bayou flooding, and river flooding. Never drive through a flooded roadway….always Turn Around…Don’t Drown.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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The Weather Prediction Center has issued their latest morning Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the next 3 days. Today offers a High Risk embedded with a Moderate Risk across portions of Texas. Day 2 and Day 3 are currently outlined as Moderate Risk for portions of SE and East Texas. These graphics and Excessive Rainfall Discussion are usually update twice daily as well as Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions when warranted.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
- Attachments
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-
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
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There are a lot of features coming together as Jeff mentioned that extend well beyond Texas into the Pacific Ocean that is lending to this serious weather situation we are monitoring. The Northern Hemisphere Water Vapor Imagery clearly shows all the players on the field that also include two to three developing tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific and their mid/upper level moisture as well as some of the most impressive TRIMM Rain Rates associated with a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave progressing E across the Eastern Pacific toward Mexico and Texas. Add to the mix embedded shortwave disturbances dropping S from the Pacific NW into a very anomalous deep upper trough across the West and you have a recipe for all modes of severe weather with very heavy rainfall rates that have their origin in the deep tropics. Please be very weather wise this weekend into next week and let those who may not be so weather savoy know this is a particularly dangerous situation for our Region especially during a time when many folks are off and enjoying a long Holiday weekend and are not 'tuned in' to what may be developing weather wise. Another issue we face in along Coastal Texas is an expected increase in tide levels. Right now 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels are expected as a strong onshore flow develops ahead of the Western storm system. These above normal tide levels will inhibit effective inland flooding to evacuate into the Bays due to those higher tides. So as you can see, we have a hectic and active weather period ahead.
[
[
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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Update from the Weather Prediction Center and Nesdis:
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0112
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1214 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 231613Z - 232213Z
SUMMARY...WPC IN COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES HAS UPGRADED TO
A HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OWING TO WELL DEFINED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND CONVERGENCE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WHILE THE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM OVER OKLAHOMA...THE
MAXIMUM THEY PREDICT OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST LOCAL RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE RAP AND GFS SIMILARLY FORECAST AN INCREASE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE OVER SOUTHWEST / SOUTH TEXAS...COINCIDENT
WITH THE HEATING CYCLE AND AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW. TRENDS
IN THE HRRR SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE UPSCALE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO EITHER SIDE OF
I-10 AND EXTENDING DOWN TO WEST OF LAREDO. A POTENTIALLY LARGE
STORM COMPLEX COULD THEN PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OR TURN SOUTHEAST
INTO THE RICH GULF INFLOW.
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 TIMES THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RAINFALL FOR THE PAST TWO WEEK PERIOD...AND FLASH FLOODING HAS
BEEN WIDELY OBSERVED DURING RAIN RATES NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT AND HI-RES MODEL SIGNAL
SUGGEST LOCALLY EXTREME RATES OF 3 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
MODERATE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE AND MODEL AGREEMENT GIVES US ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FROM KERRVILLE AND SAN ANTONIO
DOWN TO COTULLA AND LAREDO. THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 19-22Z OR 2-5PM LOCAL TIME...WITH
IMPACTS POTENTIALLY INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE EVENING.
BURKE
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...
Nesdis:
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/23/15 1625Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1615Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FEATURED ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LEAD HEIGHT FALLS
WERE LIFTING OUT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER FAR NW MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM
EVEN MORE ENERGY WAS AMPLIFYING S ALONG COASTAL CA AND THESE FEATURES
WERE HELPING TO HOLD S PORTION OF THE TROF AXIS NEARLY IN PLACE WITH ONLY
SLOW E PROGRESSION. ANOMALOUS S FLOW CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH BLENDED
PW ANALYSIS INDICATING MOISTURE SURGING N FROM THE W GULF OF MEXICO
WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 2.00" OVER PORTIONS OF S TX. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES HCR DEVELOPMENT OVER
PORTIONS OF S AND SE TX LIFTING NW TOWARDS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
OVER FROM ROUGHLY PSM EXTENDING SW TO VIC OF HDO. BEST INFLOW INTO THIS
BOUNDARY ON AREA VWPS APPEARS TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL TX IN THE VIC
OF SAT/AUS. CONSIDERING THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH LOW LCL/LFC
ON MORNING SOUNDINGS BELIEVE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PROFILES INDICATE
THAT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE STEADILY OFF TO THE NNE. STORM MOTIONS WILL
NEARLY PARALLEL TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SO TRAINING CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE AND EVOLVING WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD
FAVOR SOME SLOW MOVING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO ENHANCE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITHIN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. NOTE THAT THIS SHOULD
ONLY SET THE STAGE FOR BIGGER HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK FOR FF ON LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK AND JUST ISSUED FFGMPD
AS BETTER HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS OVERALL PATTERN WAS SIMILAR TO MADDOX SYNOPTIC TYPE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN.
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1214 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 231613Z - 232213Z
SUMMARY...WPC IN COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES HAS UPGRADED TO
A HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OWING TO WELL DEFINED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND CONVERGENCE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WHILE THE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM OVER OKLAHOMA...THE
MAXIMUM THEY PREDICT OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST LOCAL RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE RAP AND GFS SIMILARLY FORECAST AN INCREASE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE OVER SOUTHWEST / SOUTH TEXAS...COINCIDENT
WITH THE HEATING CYCLE AND AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW. TRENDS
IN THE HRRR SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE UPSCALE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO EITHER SIDE OF
I-10 AND EXTENDING DOWN TO WEST OF LAREDO. A POTENTIALLY LARGE
STORM COMPLEX COULD THEN PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OR TURN SOUTHEAST
INTO THE RICH GULF INFLOW.
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 TIMES THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RAINFALL FOR THE PAST TWO WEEK PERIOD...AND FLASH FLOODING HAS
BEEN WIDELY OBSERVED DURING RAIN RATES NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT AND HI-RES MODEL SIGNAL
SUGGEST LOCALLY EXTREME RATES OF 3 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
MODERATE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE AND MODEL AGREEMENT GIVES US ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FROM KERRVILLE AND SAN ANTONIO
DOWN TO COTULLA AND LAREDO. THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 19-22Z OR 2-5PM LOCAL TIME...WITH
IMPACTS POTENTIALLY INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE EVENING.
BURKE
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...
Nesdis:
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/23/15 1625Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1615Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FEATURED ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LEAD HEIGHT FALLS
WERE LIFTING OUT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER FAR NW MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM
EVEN MORE ENERGY WAS AMPLIFYING S ALONG COASTAL CA AND THESE FEATURES
WERE HELPING TO HOLD S PORTION OF THE TROF AXIS NEARLY IN PLACE WITH ONLY
SLOW E PROGRESSION. ANOMALOUS S FLOW CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH BLENDED
PW ANALYSIS INDICATING MOISTURE SURGING N FROM THE W GULF OF MEXICO
WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 2.00" OVER PORTIONS OF S TX. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES HCR DEVELOPMENT OVER
PORTIONS OF S AND SE TX LIFTING NW TOWARDS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
OVER FROM ROUGHLY PSM EXTENDING SW TO VIC OF HDO. BEST INFLOW INTO THIS
BOUNDARY ON AREA VWPS APPEARS TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL TX IN THE VIC
OF SAT/AUS. CONSIDERING THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH LOW LCL/LFC
ON MORNING SOUNDINGS BELIEVE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PROFILES INDICATE
THAT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE STEADILY OFF TO THE NNE. STORM MOTIONS WILL
NEARLY PARALLEL TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SO TRAINING CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE AND EVOLVING WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD
FAVOR SOME SLOW MOVING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO ENHANCE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITHIN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. NOTE THAT THIS SHOULD
ONLY SET THE STAGE FOR BIGGER HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK FOR FF ON LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK AND JUST ISSUED FFGMPD
AS BETTER HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS OVERALL PATTERN WAS SIMILAR TO MADDOX SYNOPTIC TYPE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
152 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
TXZ199-213-231930-
HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
152 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...
AT 151 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SPRING...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUMBLE...ALDINE...SPRING...GREATER GREENSPOINT...THE WOODLANDS...
NORTHERN NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...KINGWOOD...OAK RIDGE NORTH...
SHENANDOAH...WOODLOCH...BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...PORTER
HEIGHTS...SPLASHTOWN...THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION...CHATEAU WOODS...
WESTERN ATASCOCITA AND LAKE HOUSTON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
152 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
TXZ199-213-231930-
HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
152 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...
AT 151 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SPRING...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUMBLE...ALDINE...SPRING...GREATER GREENSPOINT...THE WOODLANDS...
NORTHERN NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...KINGWOOD...OAK RIDGE NORTH...
SHENANDOAH...WOODLOCH...BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...PORTER
HEIGHTS...SPLASHTOWN...THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION...CHATEAU WOODS...
WESTERN ATASCOCITA AND LAKE HOUSTON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
&&
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
128 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
TXC149-232030-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0149.150523T1828Z-150523T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE TX-
128 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RISES FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 127 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LA GRANGE...FLATONIA...CISTERN...MULDOON...NECHANITZ...HOLMAN...
FREYBURG...O QUINN...HIGH HILL...COLONY...WICCHESTER...SWISS ALP...
PLUM...WEST POINT...ELLINGER...ENGLE...WARDA...WALDECK...
AMMANNSVILLE AND WINCHESTER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
128 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
TXC149-232030-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0149.150523T1828Z-150523T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE TX-
128 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RISES FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 127 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LA GRANGE...FLATONIA...CISTERN...MULDOON...NECHANITZ...HOLMAN...
FREYBURG...O QUINN...HIGH HILL...COLONY...WICCHESTER...SWISS ALP...
PLUM...WEST POINT...ELLINGER...ENGLE...WARDA...WALDECK...
AMMANNSVILLE AND WINCHESTER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
updated QPFs are out - I'm thinking steaks are getting grilled today 
loop days 1-7 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html
3-day
5-day
loop days 1-7 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html
3-day
5-day
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The only other change I see this afternoon regarding this event was to extend the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Moderate Risk across all of SE Texas into East Texas. The Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Moderate Risk was extended slightly E and N to include portions of Western Louisiana and SW Arkansas.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
Late afternoon Saturday and things are ramping up here in south central Texas per the short range models. Heavy rain and storms congealing in the southern Edwards Plateau while a squall line is getting its act together across west central and southwest Texas. All of that will essentially end up in one blob of severe weather and flooding rains hitting my part of the Lone Star State and then progressing into Southeast Texas.
Everyone be safe as this is just the first of what probably will be numerous rounds this weekend. Flash flooding and river flooding are likely.
Everyone be safe as this is just the first of what probably will be numerous rounds this weekend. Flash flooding and river flooding are likely.
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