May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Extremely heavy rainfall continues over SE TX.

Since 400am 8.0 inches has fallen over SW Grimes County with widespread 3.0-7.0 inches from Fayette County to Grimes County.

Flash Flood Warnings continues for several counties with significant flooding ongoing.

There is a general weakening trend with the ongoing activity and cell motions have been increasing especially with storms along I-10. With the heaviest rainfall shifting north out of SE TX and along and just north of I-10…or off the hard hit locations.

This remains a serious and potentially life threatening flash flood situation. Numerous small creeks are overflowing their banks flooding normally dry low water crossings and bridges. Residents should avoid travel in the flash flood warning area until flood waters subside.

Rainfall since 400am:

[unome]

sure don't like the look of that bow moving into NW Harris

[nuby3]

Your post appears to have put an end to it

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/18/15 1349Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1330Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...SW MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...SE/E TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL PERIOD FOR SPENES RETIREMENT APPEALS HAS ENDED,
NESDIS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCEPT ADDITIONAL APPEALS THROUGH EMAILS TO
JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPENES CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTH
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1400-1730Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...MERGERS OF TWO SEPARATE MCS COMPLEXES IS JUST
GETTING UNDERWAY PER RECENT STLT/RADAR TRENDS ACROSS E-CENTRAL TX/WRN
LA. BACKBUILDING MCS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LA IS GRADUALLY SINKING SWD
TOWARD ENHANCED AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PER GOES SOUNDER DATA.
THIS IS SETTING UP A MORE W-E ORIENTATION OF THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
AND SHOULD LEAD TO MORE REPEAT CELL TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LA/SWRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ALL THE WHILE...THE UPSTREAM MCS IS
SEEN BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS. THERE IS
LIKELY A MCV THAT HAS DEVELOPED AIDING IN UPSTREAM WAA BASED UPON RECENT
STLT/RADAR SIGNATURE SHOWING BEST CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING N AND
E OF COLD POOL. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS
OF NWRN LA AS NEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NE TX AND APPEAR LIKE THEY
WILL MERGE WITH ACTIVITY LIFTING NEWD.

ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...MAYBE AT LATE AT
17-18Z GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY
STILL PRESENT IN GOES SOUNDER ACROSS SRN LA. NUMEROUS CONVERGING CU/TCU
FIELD IS ALSO EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING NWD
FROM GULF ACROSS SRN LA. THIS SHOULD FURTHER AID IN LLVL CONVERGENCE
ALLOWING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

[niner21]

Please stop raining... Enough already.

[tireman4]

Raining in Humble. Not heavy, but thunder in the distance. Please stay safe today folks. Please be weather wary. If you see flooding, do not attempt to drive through it. Turn around, dont drown.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
915 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TRINITY TX-
915 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTY UNTIL
945 AM CDT...

AT 915 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
APPLE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APPLE SPRINGS AND CENTRALIA.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Ongoing flood flow continue to move down area rivers.

Excessive rainfall this morning will cause new rises especially on the Brazos River basin.

Trinity River:
River is above flood stage at Riverside, Liberty, and Moss Bluff and will remain above flood stage for the next several days as water from north Texas moves through the system. Subdivision around Liberty may become cut-off.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is overbanks at Porter and has rose overbanks at Humble again overnight due to the rainfall yesterday afternoon. River should continue a slow recession, although heavy rainfall across the headwaters this morning may alter the forecasted recession.

East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River has fallen back within banks and will continue a slow fall. Additional rainfall over the basin yesterday and this morning may alter this recession forecast.

Brazos River:
River has begun a sharp rise at Hempstead after 8-9 inches of rainfall just north of that location this morning. Expect a new rise to begin along the entire lower Brazos basin in the next 24 hours..not sure how high the rise will be at Hempstead, Richmond and Rosharon, but it should remain below flood stage at least at Hempstead and Richmond.

Guadalupe River:
River will begin a steep rise at Victoria today and crest near moderate flood levels by the middle of the week.

Rainfall this morning and additional rainfall over the next few days will likely alter current river forecast and recessions. Residents are advised to remain alert to river conditions.

[unome]

the Emergency Alerts on tv have been atrocious, not sure if it's our cable provider (Comcast) or not, but they are pretty much unintelligible - I feel sorry for those whose only alert option is their tv

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
954 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

BURLESON TX-
954 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 953 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND ANOTHER 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CALDWELL...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...DEANVILLE...CHRIESMAN AND LYONS.

[srainhoutx]

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

...VALID 15Z MON MAY 18 2015 - 12Z TUE MAY 19 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
GTR 10 WNW PIB 20 NNE HDC 15 N LFT 15 NNW BPT 15 NNW 5R5
40 W VCT 20 SSW SSF 10 NNW SKF 20 ENE AUS 15 SW PSN 35 SSW TXK
30 W LLQ 30 S UTA 20 SE OLV 20 NNE TUP GTR.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW BGD 40 WSW AMA 15 SW PVW 65 S CDS 15 NNW SWW 30 SSW BPG
15 W ODO 15 W INK 15 SE ATS 30 SE SRR 35 E 4CR 35 E CQC 25 W LVS
25 ESE SKX 35 SSW VTP 30 NNE VTP AFF 20 W LIC 25 SE LIC
15 SE LHX 15 S EHA 15 SSW BGD.


...SOUTHEAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

AN EXTENDED AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL
CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TX INTO LA/MS AND PERHAPS
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD EASTERN TN. WIDESPREAD SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
RAINS OVERNIGHT IS FUELING INTENSE RAINFALL... AS WPC HAS ISSUED
TWO MPDS FROM TX INTO LA. THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN BY A SMALL
SCALE IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OR UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SHARP SOUTHEASTERN UPPER RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OR A SHARP DELINEATION EXISTS BETWEEN HEFTY 2 INCH PLUS PWS WITH
TDS IN THE 70S SOUTH AND EAST TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS A PRETTY STRONG
SIGNAL OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVOLVING BUT REALLY VARY IN
PLACEMENT OVER TIME. IT APPEARS THE MAIN CORRIDOR FOR INTENSE
RAINS/RAIN RATES WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO WEST CENTRAL
MS BUT PERHAPS SAG SOUTH AND EAST INTO SRN LA/MS BUT ALSO POSSIBLY
REACH INTO NORTHERN AL/EASTERN TN LATER THIS AFTN. THIS ENTIRE
RISK AREA IS FLUID AND STAY TUNED TO LATEST MPD PRODUCTS FROM WPC.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AND DYNAMIC JET STREAK WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIGHT NEG TILT IN THE SRN STREAM TROUGH
IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY SYNOPTIC SCALE
PRECIP LATE TODAY/OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS REGION... AS A LLJ IS FORECAST TO PICK UP STEAM WITH 2O TO
30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE LOCAL TERRAIN OF
NM/CO. THIS SURGE OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER FORCING SUPPORT FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NM
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING OUT INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEFTY RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY SLOW
CELL MOTIONS SUPPORT A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff regarding the remainder of the day into tonight:

Short fused flash flood event ending across the area….for the next few hours at least.

Rainfall this morning has averaged 5-10 inches from Bellville to Navasota, much of which fell in a 2-3 hour window. Ongoing flooding continues in this area even though the rain has ended for the most part. Visible satellite images show clearing skies on the backside of the weakening thunderstorm complex over our northern counties and the air mass over SC/C TX remains moist and unstable. Also a large complex of heavy thunderstorms is advancing SSW through NC LA at the current time.

Expect a break in the action for the next few hours with the sun eventually breaking through the overcast and allowing surface heating especially our western and southwestern counties. Will have to watch the complex up to our NE as it may attempt to move into our area as suggested by some of the guidance over the last few days. This would only add more heavy rainfall on top of an already water logged area. Flash flood guidance is as low as 1 inch in 1 hour over Washington County and we have been seeing an 1 in 15 minutes with some of the storms this morning. Additional rainfall is going to cause flooding.

No point in trying to figure out activity and trends more than about 6-12 hours out as meso scale influences are driving the development and ill defined low level boundaries and sparking the activity.

[jasons2k]

It's getting pretty warm now with the sun coming out. Over 90 degrees in parts of SW Houston. It feels like a sauna. I think we're about to see some storms fire up across the area.

[srainhoutx]

Beginning to get a bit concerned about the Memorial Day Holiday Week. The global guidance is suggesting a further south upper low across Northern Mexico developing with a bit of a SE Ridge organizing. If that solution is close to being correct at this range, that would tend to suggest strong to severe storms may develop closer to Central and SE Texas as well as being on the Western periphery of the SE Ridge meaning abundant deep tropical moisture streaming inland from the NW Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

Please stop raining... Enough already.

I wish I could offer some better news, niner21. There are many folks in your situation that cannot work with this prolonged wet pattern we've been experiencing. Unfortunately the Climate Prediction Center Update this afternoon offers little hope of this wet pattern ending anytime in the foreseeable future.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Air mass is recovering over the area this afternoon with surface temperatures rising into the mid 80’s. Large outflow boundary from central Louisiana thunderstorm complex is making its way across the Sabine River and moving WSW to W toward SE TX. Recently thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of this feature. Another outflow boundary is laying across the City of Houston SW along US 59 and yet another boundary can be seen shifting westward across central TX.

I am very leery of what has transpired over the last 7 days (5 separate rainfall events of 6 inches or greater) and the general lack of model guidance to forecast much of this. Current high resolution guidance is not handling the storms over E TX very well and this morning’s activity fired along an old outflow boundary from yesterday when the low level jet increased lift along the feature. Even though no model guidance suggest storm formation overnight…with so many boundaries moving about…I would not rule out another flare up of early morning storms. The air mass remains very moist and capable of some really big short term rainfall rates…case in point the almost 10 inches over southern Grimes County this morning.

Upper level ridge will attempt to gain some ground over the region…especially along the coast…toward the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame, but this does not take our inland locations out of the risk for more heavy rainfall and it is this area that has been hit so hard over the last 7 days. Additional disturbances moving across in the SW flow aloft will likely trigger late afternoon and evening storms along the dry line over SW TX and some of this activity could grow into a thunderstorm complex and move into the area during the morning hours. Thursday is potentially a day for this to happen.

Another large upper level storm system drops into the SW US Friday and then moves toward TX next weekend. Moisture levels look to surge to near summer levels ahead of this storm system and lift looks sustained so the attention will be on the Saturday-Sunday time period for widespread excessive rainfall yet again. With grounds already soggy and rivers high additional rainfall will almost certainly cause flooding.

[srainhoutx]

Another day with a fairly good chance of heat of the day thunderstorm activity across portions of Central and SE Texas with boundaries draped across the Region. Overnight thunderstorm clusters dropped nearly 5 inches of rainfall in San Angelo and with a stalled frontal boundary laying across the Hill Country as well as a westerly flow aloft, slow moving showers and strong storms with heavy rainfall rates are possible today.

We may see a break tomorrow, but the overnight guidance continues to advertise a deepening upper low near the Baja Peninsula Thursday into the weekend returning a SW flow aloft with embedded disturbances rounding the base of the trough as well as additional disturbances riding E from the Pacific Ocean. Friday could be a very active weather day with additional showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates possibly continuing into the Memorial Day weekend.

[BlueJay]

We are currently getting one of those stray showers.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS AND CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 112 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CONROE TO GREATER
GREENSPOINT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT
LOCATIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN CONROE AND BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT... WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO LIMITING
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ROADWAY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...HUMBLE...WILLIS...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...ALDINE...GREATER
GREENSPOINT...KINGWOOD...OAK RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
SHENANDOAH...CUT AND SHOOT...MONTGOMERY...WOODLOCH...BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...LAKE CONROE DAM...PORTER HEIGHTS...
SPLASHTOWN...HOOKS AIRPORT AND THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next 7 Days that includes the busy Memorial Holiday Weekend. Stay weather aware if you are on the Lakes & Rivers as well as traveling this busy Holiday Weekend.