May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[Cromagnum]

If that line SE of San Antonio holds together, it's going to be another ugly afternoon for Houston.

[ticka1]

going south not east -that line of storms

[unome]

from Corpus NWS
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

TORNADO WARNING
TXC355-151815-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0032.150515T1742Z-150515T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1241 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO OVER
CLARKWOOD...OR NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...CORPUS
CHRISTI DEL MAR EAST CAMPUS...CLARKWOOD...DOWNTOWN CORPUS
CHRISTI...DRISCOLL CHILDRENS HOSPITAL...CORPUS CHRISTI DEL MAR WEST
CAMPUS...COLE PARK...CORPUS CHRISTI NORTH BEACH AND TULOSO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A
MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 9758 2784 9749 2782 9747 2784 9738
2782 9739 2781 9741 2781 9739 2780 9738
2778 9739 2774 9736 2772 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 259DEG 26KT 2780 9752

$$

TJ

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC007-355-409-151815-
/O.NEW.KCRP.SV.W.0078.150515T1733Z-150515T1815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1233 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
ST. PAUL TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DRISCOLL...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...SINTON...TAFT...CORPUS CHRISTI
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...ODEM...
GREGORY...ST. PAUL...PALM HARBOR...INGLESIDE--ARANSAS PASS...CORPUS
CHRISTI COUNTRY CLUB...KINGS CROSSING GOLF COURSE...CLARKWOOD...
CHRISTUS SPOHN HOSPITAL SOUTH...MUSTANG ISLAND STATE PARK...
DRISCOLL CHILDRENS HOSPITAL...CORPUS CHRISTI NORTH BEACH AND COLE
PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2813 9758 2801 9716 2797 9719 2803 9689
2790 9701 2794 9706 2789 9702 2795 9710
2785 9707 2790 9714 2785 9712 2787 9756
2784 9738 2763 9735 2771 9715 2756 9723
2756 9762 2757 9762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 267DEG 39KT 2813 9755 2755 9759

$$

TJ

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC175-152030-
/O.NEW.KCRP.FF.W.0057.150515T1725Z-150515T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 1224 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. GROUNDS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ALREADY SATURATED. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GOLIAD...FANNIN...BERCLAIR...CHARCO...SCHROEDER...ANDER...WESER AND
WEESATCHE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 2886 9730 2884 9730 2885 9725 2884 9722
2855 9719 2839 9739 2848 9755 2852 9756
2852 9764 2854 9767 2867 9776 2890 9743

$$

[srainhoutx]

Flood Watch coming for Harris, Brazoria, Galveston and Liberty Counties until 9:00 PM.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WINNIE
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS EXPANDED
THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WALLER AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MANY PARTS OF THE
WATCH AREA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 4 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN
THE PAST WEEK. EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

[unome]

yup, it's starting to pop all over

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... gx&wwa=all

http://nmq.ou.edu/

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite ... xas-rad-48

[srainhoutx]

Definitely looks like a potent meso low (MCV) is moving ENE just S of I-10.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
204 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

JACKSON TX-COLORADO TX-MATAGORDA TX-WHARTON TX-
204 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON...JACKSON AND WEST CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 203 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF SALEM TO
NEAR GREEN LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

EDNA...GANADO...LA WARD...LOLITA...LAKE TEXANA...MORALES...
LOUISE...GARWOOD...VANDERBILT AND CORDELE.

[Paul Robison]

When it matters, trust the pros.


000
FXUS64 KHGX 170230
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL CAP DEVELOPING OVER SE TX.
THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND JUST EAST OF CHAMBERS
AND LIBERTY COUNTIES AT 920 PM. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE MOVING
INLAND AND STAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STORMS THAT WERE LOCATED ALONG THE DRY LINE OUT IN WEST AND
NORTH TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
THE 01Z RAP13 AND HRRR PLUS THE 00Z NAM12 WERE ALL PUSHING THE
AREA OF STORMS INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY.

LOWERED THE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO 20 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHAMBERS...LIBERTY... AND
POLK COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 8-12KTS TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS. CIGS
SHOULD DROP TO MVFR FOR THE MORNING HOURS. KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE
A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING LIKE THIS MORNING. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION COMING OUT OF C TX TO SEE IF IT WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS IN THE MORNING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSSIBLY
BEING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH VCSH AS CAPPING WILL STILL BE STRONG AND DAY TIME HEATING MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INITIATE.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING IS WORKING THE MAGIC THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE 59 CORRIDOR. STORMS HAVE
BEEN SMALL AND NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS /
VIL 25-40G/KG /STORM MOTIONS OF 23 KNOTS AND RAINFALL RATES OF
25-.75"/HOUR THANKS TO FAIRLY QUICK MOTION. THOUGH THE INSTABILITY
DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH PEAK
HEATING CAPE VALUES LIMITED TO 2100-2700J/KG WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT THAT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER NORTH...THEN
WANE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW MODELS HIGHLIGHT
DEVELOPMENT WELL DOWN THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS BETWEEN MAF/SJT.
IF THIS OCCURS THEN WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TAIL- DRAGGERS
AS THEY MAY GET CLOSE TO THE NW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LOOKS LOW HERE BUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THE THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE WHERE STORMS LINE UP AND TRAIN AS LLJ INTENSIFIES WITH
STORMS GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ST DECK TO RETURN THE AREA AND SSE FLOW TO
CONTINUE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT LESS FORCEFULLY INLAND SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL SLOWLY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER/WINDS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGER PART IN OUR DAILY
RAIN CHANCES AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA 588-590DM 500MB
HEIGHTS COVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE MORE CAPPING. THEN
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY RIDGE FLATTENS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS STORM TRACK
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE THIS
WEEK LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS TX/NW LA AND THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS.
HEAVIER RAINS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS A THREAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGING RETURNS AND RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TAPER OFF.
NEXT TROUGH DROPS INTO THE DESERT SW FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY SET
THE STAGE FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN OUR WESTERN ZONES
BUT EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF POSSIBLY
EXERTING ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING
THE DAY AND 4 TO 9 DEGREES WARMER ON MINS WITH THE PERSISTENT
MOIST GULF RETURN.
45

MARINE...
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP KEEP ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. CAUTION FLAGS
ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE BEGINNING ON MONDAY...AND MAINLY
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 87 74 87 72 / 20 30 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 88 75 88 73 / 20 20 20 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 85 79 85 76 / 10 20 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

[srainhoutx]

A line of storms developed overnight and maintained their strength and organization into the Hill Country extending NE into Texarkana and SW Arkansas. Cloud tops suggest some warming this morning, but a big concern is left over boundaries associated with the squall line and the potential for redevelopment today. I have been tracking a shortwave since Thursday that was near Hawaii and has now made it into Northern Mexico and West Texas near the Big Bend. Additional storm development today along a dryline to the West and boundaries nearby raise an eyebrow for potentially heavy rainfall later today into tomorrow in the very stagnant pattern we currently are experiencing.



No real change in the forecast philosophy with a persistent upper trough to our West and moisture and embedded disturbances moving East across the Pacific Ocean somewhat associated with two typhoons that have affect the Western Pacific the past week. The ensembles are suggesting yet another cold core upper low developing later this week as we approach the long Memorial Day Holiday period. The is no real change in this pattern throughout the end of May, so expect additional chances of daytime showers and storms, some possibly producing heavy rainfall continuing into at least the Memorial Day time frame.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
809 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
ATASCOSA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN KARNES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 806 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO TO
AUSTIN. CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINS WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. UP TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. MANY OF THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS MAKING SOILS SATURATED AND RUNOFF MORE RAPID.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS...SAN MARCOS...SEGUIN...
UNIVERSAL CITY...LOCKHART...PLEASANTON...ELGIN...GONZALES...
BASTROP...FLORESVILLE...LULING...GIDDINGS...LA GRANGE...
JOURDANTON...SMITHVILLE...POTEET...WIMBERLEY AND POTH.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[unome]

the last 24-hr radar: http://floyd.atmos.colostate.edu/~smsal ... latest.htm

a huge image, so you may want to reduce screen size to view it all & you need to select to animate (top left). amazing storm, all the way from Canada to Mexico - hope it's helping to replenish some over-stressed aquifers

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/

[srainhoutx]

Update from the Weather Prediction Center and Nesdis:

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0096
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 171425Z - 171900Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY OVERALL SHOWS A TENDENCY
FOR CLOUD TOPS TO WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TX
INVOLVING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MORNING QLCS. HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF KBAZ SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF KCOT HAS BEEN QUITE INTENSE THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE LATEST GOES-OTD ALGORITHM IS STILL SHOWING A FEW OVERSHOOTING
TOPS...AND THERE HAS BEEN A STRONG CONCENTRATION OF LIGHTNING AS
PER THE EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT. THIS SUGGESTS
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/ASCENT WHICH APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED TO A
FAVORABLY DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS SEEN IN LATEST
WV/GOES-RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY.

THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TREND TO THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE TX COAST...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. BASED ON
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE...THERE IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...AND
FOSTER VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL OVERSHOOTING TOP ACTIVITY EXPECTED. AREAS FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST WILL SEE THE CONVECTION BE MORE DISORGANIZED BY
COMPARISON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KHOU.

REGARDLESS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
SOUTHEAST TX IS HEAVILY CONNECTED TO RECENT RAINFALL WHICH HAS
LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED IN MANY AREAS. THE APPROACHING
CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LOCALLY OF 2 TO 3
INCHES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXACERBATE RUNOFF CONCERNS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...


Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/17/15 1457Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1445Z HEEPS
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL PERIOD FOR SPENES RETIREMENT APPEALS HAS ENDED,
NESDIS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCEPT ADDITIONAL APPEALS THROUGH EMAILS TO
JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPE FOR HVY RAINS ASSCD WITH SRN EDGE OF
SQUALL LINE
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OVER THE PAST FEW HRS SINCE LAST SPENES
MESSAGE WAS SENT...NOTICED A CONSIDERABLE AMNT OF CLOUD-TOP WARMING
IN IR IMAGERY ALONG MUCH OF THE FLANKS OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE MOVING THRU TX. EVEN STILL...HAVE NOT NECESSARILY
NOTICED A LARGE AMNT OF CLOUD-TOP WARMING OCCURRING WITHIN THE CORE OF
THE CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF AS IT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EWRD. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
TO REMAIN STRONG WITHIN SFC TROF NOTED IN RECENT OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS
THAT HUGS THE TX COASTLINE AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE
OVER MUCH OF SRN TX IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS NOTED IN
EXPERIMENTAL CIMSS SATL DERIVED WINDS. PERSISTENT LOW LVL SRLY WINDS
HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS RIGHT
OUT AHEAD OF THE QLCS...PW VALUES OF 1.5"-1.75" PER GPS PW NETWORK...AND
STRONG MST CONVERGENCE ALONG GULF COAST FROM RECENT SFC ANALYSIS. THIS
SHOULD IMPLY FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH CLOUD-TOP WARMING HAS BEEN NOTED ASSCD
WITH CONVECTION FROM IR IMAGERY...THE QLCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWRD
AS IT HEADS INTO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FUNNELED
IN FROM A 40-50 KT SRLY LLJ SEEN IN REGIONAL VWPS NOSING JUST INLAND
INVOF KHGX. MORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALSO BEEN SEEN OUT AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE...AND RAINFALL RATES COULD FURTHER INCREASE AS THESE
SCATTERED CELLS MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS PLUS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF
CONVECTIVE TRAINING...MOST LIKELY INVOF LAVACA/DEWITT COUNTIES AND SW
TOWARDS THE SRN EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE...WOULD LIKELY IMPLY RAINFALL
RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR...AND HIGHER WITHIN AREAS OF CELL MERGING. AS
GROUNDS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ONLY EXACERBATE ANY LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS LINE OF THINKING MATCHES WELL WITH LATEST
MPD #0096.

[Katdaddy]

Srain beat me to it.

A line of weakening thunderstorms are moving into W portions of SE TX. Of more interest are the isolated thunderstorms developing in advance of this line. Its possible this could become a new line of thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall threat. Something to watch over the next several hours.

[texoz]

At 11:15 am, the wind in Austin has suddenly increased as though a cold front has moved through. Light rain with steady wind at 22 mph with gusts to 33mph from the SE.

[srainhoutx]

Luling (Caldwell County just E of San Antonio is reporting County wide flooding issues with many County roads and low water crossings impassable. Emergency responders are unable to reach some areas due to flooding.

[srainhoutx]

Current thinking is the main MCS will continue to weaken, but the bigger concern is there are numerous boundaries across Central, South and SE Texas and daytime heating with the presences of a dryline across West Texas and a very impressive jet streak moving from West to East across the Southern half of Texas additional showers and strong thunderstorms will again develop later today. Current meso analysis suggests some very impressive parameters are developing basically from Sonora down to Kerrville and into Deep South Texas. The latest visible imagery suggests some agitation developing to our West and SW and that will need to be monitored for another potential MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) later this afternoon into the overnight hours.

[niner21]

There has to be a light at the end of the tunnel?

Things are pretty bleak income wise due to this and the little league baseball season has literally been washed out for 2 months. It'll take 5 days of sun and no rain to allow real work to be done.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-WHARTON TX-FORT BEND TX-
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN WHARTON...WESTERN HARRIS...EASTERN
AUSTIN...SOUTHERN WALLER AND FORT BEND COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 1255 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER WESTON LAKES...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF BROOKSHIRE...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...WESTERN MISSOURI CITY...ROSENBERG...STAFFORD...KATY...
RICHMOND...TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...SEALY...BROOKSHIRE...HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING
VALLEY...TOWN WEST...PECAN GROVE...FIRST COLONY...SPRING BRANCH
WEST...ADDICKS PARK TEN AND MISSION BEND.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/17/15 1830Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1815Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1622Z 1528Z DMSP SSMIS:1411Z 1345Z 1203Z
.
LOCATION...
SE AND E CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL PERIOD FOR SPENES RETIREMENT APPEALS HAS ENDED,
NESDIS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCEPT ADDITIONAL APPEALS THROUGH EMAILS TO
JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...INCREASED PRECIP WATER...ANTICYCLONIC BULGE IN GOES IR INDICATING
A WEAK WAVE...
CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY BUT CAN PUT DOWN 1.5"-2.5 ISOLATED HIGHER ON
SATURATED SOIL IN A FEW HRS...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...COUPLE OF NOTICEABLE CHANGES FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WERE INCREASED PRECIP WATER VALUES AS SEEN
FROM LATEST VICTORIA, BEEVILLE AND ALICE, TX GPS SITES IN WHICH VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO 2.15", 2.1" AND 2.05". THIS ALONG WITH ANTICYCLONIC
BULGE IN GOES IR INDICATING AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE THAT WAS PUSHING THE
CONVECTIVE BAND EAST AND ENE, BUT ALSO TAKING ADVANTAGE OF INCREASED
EXCESSIVE MOISTURE AND ITS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION TO HELP PRODUCED INCREASED
RAINFALL JACKSON TO WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY. ALSO NOTED WAS A VERY WEAK
SEABREEZE-LIKE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT CAN FURTHER BE/OR WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL WITH SOME TRAINING OR MERGING CELLS. PWAT VALUES RIGHT NOW
FROM GPS WHEN COMPARED WITH CRP PW CLIMO WOULD NOW PUT MOISTURE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON AS WELL.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1815-2115Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ENOUGH INFO FROM MOISTURE INCREASE AND GOES IR
AND SLOW MOVEMENT ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FOR HVY RAIN TO GO FROM
ITS CURRENT JACKSON TO SAN JACINTO/POLK THAT ALSO INCLUDED WESTERN
HARRIS COUNTY AND SHIFTING IT SLOWLY EAST AND ENE NEXT 3HRS THAT CAN
HELP PRODUCE POTENTIAL HVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1.5"-2.5" AND ISOLATED 3"+
AMOUNTS IN A FEW HRS. AND IF BAND WERE TO SLOW DUE TO ENCOUNTERING
SEAS BREEZE-LIKE BAND OUT AHEAD WITH MORE MERGERS ON ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS THIS WOULD FURTHER HELP INCREASE FF THREAT THOUGH THIS PERIOD.
IN ADDITION, STILL CAN DETECT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION THOUGH
NARROW AND WITH WEAK 700-500MB WINDS TO GET THE MOISTURE OVER THE MEXICAN
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY ALSO HAVE HELPED NUDGE UP PWAT VALUES RECENTLY.
SEE LATEST NCEP WPC METWATCH AND EXCESSIVE DISCUSSION AND GRAPHICS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFO ON THIS HVY RAIN SITUATION.
.