March Ends As One Of The 'Wettest' March On Record

[Paul Robison]

Where will the best lift for very strong T-storms be? North or South of I-10? Any opinions?

[nlosrgr8]

Long time lurker here We have a wedding Saturday in Richmond. Any chance the rain will let up by 6pm? Thanks! You guys are the best!

[Paul Robison]

NWS Beaumont AFD says:

NEXT MAIN WEATHER EVENT WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS 500
HPA TROUGH WILL CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCHES AND HPC 5 DAY TOTALS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS LAKES
REGION TO THE ALEXANDRIA AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

Where is the Texas lakes region? Is that north of Houston?

[srainhoutx]

Long time lurker here We have a wedding Saturday in Richmond. Any chance the rain will let up by 6pm? Thanks! You guys are the best!

Unfortunately it could be wet around that time frame for you in Richmond. We'll try to keep an eye on things as we get a bit closer. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall beginning early Friday into late Saturday for locations across the Hill Country on South early this morning.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Another strong storm system will approach TX early this weekend with widespread rainfall likely.

A weak frontal boundary is nearly stationary this morning from C TX into E TX, south of this boundary the air mass is moist and even a little unstable with dewpoints in the 60’s. High dewpoints over the cool nearshore waters is leading to sea fog formation and this will plague the coast for the next few days. Radar also shows a cluster of showers over Jackson and Colorado Counties moving NNE at around 10mph.

Boundary just to our north may sag into our northern counties today and with heating into the upper 70’s may spark a shower or two from College Station to Livingston.

Main show gets underway Friday evening and all day Saturday as the next Baja low moves across TX. Expect an increase in showers Friday evening and overnight as moisture increases off the western Gulf of Mexico and lift increases from the SW. The boundary to our north will very slowly sag into the area and add an additional focus for rainfall especially on Saturday. Will likely see periods of heavy rainfall in training bands on Saturday especially from Columbus to Conroe northward, but the entire area will see rainfall. Not expecting any severe weather with limited instability. Sea fog will continue along the coast likely through Sunday morning.

Rainfall amounts Friday-Sunday will average 1-2 inches across the region with isolated totals of 3-5 inches possible. The highest threat for the heaviest rainfall will be along and NW of US 59 or across the areas that have already been hard hit over the last week with heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns especially on already elevated watersheds is possible this weekend into early next week.

Hydro:
River continue in recession from last week’s rainfall with only the lower Trinity still in flood from releases from Lake Conroe. Forecasted rainfall amounts this weekend will almost certainly produce new rises and with wet grounds run-off will be maximized across the region. New rises to flood stage will be possible this weekend into early next week on several of the local rivers.

[wxman57]

Long time lurker here We have a wedding Saturday in Richmond. Any chance the rain will let up by 6pm? Thanks! You guys are the best!

The peak of the rain appears to be between noon and 5pm Saturday. However, light rain will likely continue through Saturday evening. Plan on a widespread light rain Saturday evening with temperatures in the mid 60s.

[djmike]

NWS Beaumont AFD says:

NEXT MAIN WEATHER EVENT WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS 500
HPA TROUGH WILL CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCHES AND HPC 5 DAY TOTALS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS LAKES
REGION TO THE ALEXANDRIA AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

Where is the Texas lakes region? Is that north of Houston?

Lakes region is just north of Jasper. Lake Sam Rayburn and Sabine Lake. Here in Beaumont/Lake Charles, we call that the lakes region. Have a great day!

[srainhoutx]

Flood Watch hoisted for portions of Central Texas. Probably the first of several to come as far S as Corpus Christi and extending E into portions of SE/E Texas and Louisiana...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY...

.A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM MEXICO PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-
CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...
CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
955 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
DIMMIT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON AND ZAVALA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES FROM SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

* RAPID RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND URBAN
AREAS NORMALLY SUBJECT TO FLOODING. RECENT RAINFALL ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS LED TO
SATURATED SOILS WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH
LESS RAINFALL THAN USUAL...POSING AN ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests plenty of 1 to 2 inch amounts of rainfall with some isolated totals nearing 4-6 inches across portions of our Region.

[srainhoutx]

Almost half an inch in the gauge during the past hour here in NW Harris County. So glad to see all Oak and Pine pollen being washed away!

[nlosrgr8]

Thank you, Ive come to respect and rely on your insights!

[djjordan]

My lawn is still wet from last week .... so any additional rainfall will definitely run off around here.

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

Strong storm system will bring another round of heavy rainfall to SE TX Friday night/Saturday…flooding will be possible.

Impressive moisture return is underway across the region from both the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean with moisture values forecasted to peak near the climatological 99th percentile late Friday into early Saturday morning. This coupled with strong lift from an approaching upper level storm system and a slow moving surface front will set the stage for widespread heavy rainfall. Expect activity to develop over C TX midday Friday and begin to spread into our western counties late Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Cell training from SW to NE appears likely on Friday night with an enhanced flash flood threat as strong low level inflow brings copious moisture northward into this system. Overall slow motion points toward several hours of potentially heavy training rainfall from midnight to noon on Saturday.

With grounds still soggy from frequent rainfall of late, run-off will be maximized across the region. Hourly rainfall rates may approach 2.0 inches in the stronger storms leading to quick run-off problems. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is likely with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. Models have been suggesting the heaviest rainfall axis falls along and NW of a Columbus to Conroe to Livingston line, but latest 18Z guidance has shifted this southward a little and closer to metro Houston/Harris County.

Hydro:
Rivers and creeks are still in recession from last week, and the magnitude of rainfall forecasted will certainly produce new rises likely to flood stage on some of the mainstem rivers. Main concerns are the Trinity, Navasota, San Bernard, San Jacinto, and possibly the lower Brazos along with many of the smaller feeder creeks and tributaries. Flood gate operations continues at Lake Livingston which is resulting in minor flooding on the lower Trinity River below Liberty. Gate operations at Lake Conroe may resume this weekend depending on rainfall patterns.

A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued for portions of SE TX later tonight.

Residents near rivers and creeks should remain alert to the flooding potential over the next several days.

[Ptarmigan]

I see this as a late Friday night to early Saturday morning event.

[Katdaddy]

Today marks the official beginning of Spring 2015. A very wet weekend on the way. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for N and W portions of SE TX and will likely be expanded S and E to Houston metro and coastal areas later today. Flash Flood Watches continue for Central and STX as well as ETX. Some areas could see up to 6" of rain through Sunday.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-220500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0002.150320T1700Z-150322T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
333 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
COLORADO...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER AND WASHINGTON.

* FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* DISTURBANCES MOVING UP AHEAD OF A NORTHWESTERN MEXICO UPPER
TROUGH WILL ENTER AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
AIR MASS TODAY INTO TOMORROW. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY...
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. PRECEDENT SATURATED GROUND WILL INHIBIT
RAINFALL TO DRAIN INTO THE LOWER SOIL LEVELS...INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR ENHANCED RUNOFF LEADING TO FLOODING.

* POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE WATER OVER ROADWAYS AND
SWOLLEN RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES COMING OUT OF BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[wxman57]

Peak rain should be from early tomorrow morning to early Sunday. Heaviest will be during the daylight hours tomorrow. Nothing extreme, just an inch or two of steady light to moderate rain. Minor street flooding in places that flood easily.

[unome]

looks like much of the areas that really need it will be getting some welcome precip !

[Andrew]

Looks like the front is currently stalled over Central Texas on a line from Austin to College Station. Pwats across the area are already up to 1.5 inches but most models really indicate that most of the precipitation will stay over central Texas. The HRRR, Tx WRF, and global models all indicate that a strong gradient will be present with highest totals staying well north of Harris County. With current radar trends, I would tend to agree with this, but would keep an eye on mesoscale development later tonight into the overnight hours. That could throw a wrench into things overnight tonight and spread precipitation further south than indicated.

[BlueJay]

Although our backyard is flooded the rain gauge says we have only received 0.62 inches of rain this evening...so far...

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall event underway over TX this evening.



Slow moving upper level storms system will combine with a slow moving frontal boundary to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight/Saturday. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms in progress this evening across the NW ½ of SE TX stretching SW to the Mexican border and NE to E TX. Radar indicates already 2.5 inches of rainfall has fallen over SE Walker County and portions of San Jacinto County and several more inches are likely. Surface frontal boundary is currently along a Columbus to Conroe line and sagging southward with the bulk of the rainfall along and behind this feature. A few showers have developed ahead of this boundary. Storms motions thus far have been on the slow side which is allowing for increased short term rainfall rates.



Meso scale models keep the bulk of the activity overnight across the NW ½ of SE TX closer to the best lift from the approaching upper level trough and behind the surface front. This appears to be where the greatest potential for heavy rainfall will be tonight into Saturday morning. Thus far the front has continued to move southward and this could bring the focus of heavy rainfall a bit southward than expected, but meso guidance does not suggest this at this time although observation trends of the frontal movement indicate otherwise.



Will continue with widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches across much of the area with the lowest amounts near the coast and the highest amounts inland from Columbus to Livingston. Isolated totals could approach 4-6 inches especially north of HWY 105. This magnitude of rainfall on top of already saturated grounds (March rainfall running 200% of normal) suggests run-off will be maximized across the region.



Hydro:



Lake Conroe has increased their releases this evening to 1058cfs up from 529cfs this morning. Forecasted rainfall amounts over the headwaters of the San Jacinto River basin will likely require additional flood gate operations at Conroe.



Lake Livingston is continuing flood releases from last week currently releasing 16,000cfs into the lower Trinity River.



Forecasted rainfall over the inland portions of SE TX will almost certainly generate new flood waves on area rivers…and some rivers may rise to or above flood stage late this weekend or early next week. Persons along area rivers should monitor river levels and be prepared to act if needed.