More cold air on the way next week!?

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don
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Yea what the CMC suggest is that the low tracks closer to the coast and there for we get under the cold core of the low as rain changes to snow on the backside of the system similar to the 2008 snow event.But i dont think that will happen though...

On a Sidenote some of the GFS Esembles also show the same scenario playing out FWIW...
Last edited by don on Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
txsnowmaker
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Thank you for the feedback srain and don. I read on another forum that some of the GFS ensembles appear to be in agreement with the Canadian run. At this point, I will keep my expectations quite low for anything interesting this week. Of course, I am always happy to see expectations surpassed. ;)
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srainhoutx
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Updated HPC 5 Day QPF Totals...
(Click to enlarge) We are working on some issues if you haven't guessed. ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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HPC Model Peference...hmmm...

...SYSTEM INITIALLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET/CMC COMPROMISE

THE NAM BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE UPR LOW COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND MAJORITY OTHER SOLNS FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD. SOME 09Z
SREF/06-12Z GEFS MEMBERS DO OFFER POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOWER TIMING
THOUGH. THE NAM HAS YET TO DISPLAY A TREND TOWARD THE MAJORITY
FASTER SOLN BUT GIVEN A TYPICALLY SLOW BIAS WHEN THE NAM IS ON THE
SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD... WOULD FAVOR LEANING AWAY FROM
THE NAM WITH THE UPR SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY THE SFC LOW THAT TRACKS
OVER THE GULF. AMONG THE NON-NAM GUIDANCE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE GULF SFC LOW THAN MOST SOLNS ASIDE FROM THE
06-12Z GEFS MEANS... WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW FASTER TIMING THAN THE GFS. THE
UKMET/CMC/ECMWF ARE ALL SOMEWHAT DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE CORE
OF THE SHRTWV ALOFT BY LATE FRI. OVERALL THE GFS FCST APPEARS
BETTER THAN THE NAM... BUT GFS FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO APLCHNS BY
LATE IN THE FCST IS NOT THE MOST PREFERRED. AS THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN... WILL ULTIMATELY
RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WHICH TRACK THE
GULF OF MEXICO SFC LOW FARTHER NWD THAN THE GFS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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sleetstorm
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Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?
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Portastorm
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sleetstorm wrote:Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?
Sleet, it will be pumping warm gulf air over our heads ... and slowly but surely working its way down to the surface so that the entire air column is saturated.
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srainhoutx
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Lets set a realistic, but not too easy target for ourselves, and forget about Houston and maybe a few pellets or flakes in all the rain, but instead follow instead whether winter weather can cancel school this week for the DISD.

Maybe a bit further S than Dallas Ed. Del Rio to Austin to College Station to Huntsville to Lufkin and points N may very well get in on the action IMHO. Anything S would be icing on the cake at this point IMHO...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 12 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2010


...WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/09 ECMWF FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A
GRADUAL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO
ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO THAT TIME
RANGE. PREFER THE NORTHERN MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE WAVE CROSSING
THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH MANY WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WINTER ULTIMATELY TRACKING LESS SUPPRESSED
THAN THE MODELS INITIALLY PROG. THE MANUAL PROGS INDICATE SNOW
AND ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH
CAROLINA WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE ORDER OF THE WEEK
FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE ROCKIES. FRONTS ARE EXPECT TO COME INTO THE NORTHWEST
OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH LESS ENERGY DIVING INTO CALIFORNIA.


FINAL...

THE 12Z/09 GEFS MEAN...ECMWF...AND GEM GLOBAL ALL TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH THE GULF WAVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...SO BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE GEM GLOBAL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW ONCE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC...LIFTING A DEEP CENTER A
GOOD BIT OF THE WAY TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A
TREND TO WATCH...WITH LARGE IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN
TERMS OF WINTER WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...STUCK WITH THE EARLIER BLEND
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...RULING THE GEM GLOBAL AS AN
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST DAY 6.


CISCO
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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harpman
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Local mets are giving us a decent chance of sleet/snow/rain/mix in the New Orleans area Thursday night into Friday.
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Mr. T
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At 72 hours (day 3), the 12z GFS is by far the warmest in the upper levels of any global model. Why HGX is following it the closest, I have no idea, but I think at least areas north of Conroe will see some snow by friday morning... The 12z CMC and UKMET like this idea. I cannot see Euro QPF maps, but it looks closer to the CMC and UKMET than the warm GFS.
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TxLady
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redneckweather wrote:Just got back from Leakey yesterday.
Completely O.T.: redneckweather, have you ever driven the "3 Sisters" drive, in/around, Leakey? I had lunch in Leakey, back in July...a little family-owned place...quite tasty! :)
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