More cold air on the way next week!?

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sleetstorm
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I have a feeling that today's forecast high may end up being several degrees too warm, particularly if cloud cover stays much longer over southeast Texas than previously forecast.
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Portastorm
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We're seeing a lot of cold air advection here in AUS. Temps and dew points have been dropping steadily since 6 a.m. Down to 36 degrees now downtown.
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wxman57
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srainhoutx wrote:
I'm going to "pick your brain" for a moment wxman57. ;) I am seeing some signals that are rather unusual for the next couple of weeks in SE TX and the areas E of the Rockies. Do you feel that the much discussed MMW/SSW as well as severely negative AO, NAO, +PNA and -EPO episodes we are are experiencing along with a severe blocking regime spell much below average temps and a stormier period ahead for us? You know I and other members follow long range forecasting and would be interested in hearing your thoughts regardless of how painful it may be for those longing for Spring like many of us including yourself.
All those factors you mentioned do point to continued cold and stormy across the U.S. for the next 2-4 weeks (at least). The ECMWF is predicting a very cold period for the rest of February (east of Rockies). While we typically begin to see signs of spring by the 3rd week of February, that may be delayed this year until the 2nd week of March. Certainly can't rule out another winter weather event here based on what I'm seeing, even into late February or early March. I see no light at the end of the tunnel for those, like me, anxious for spring sunshine and warmth...
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srainhoutx
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wxman57 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
I'm going to "pick your brain" for a moment wxman57. ;) I am seeing some signals that are rather unusual for the next couple of weeks in SE TX and the areas E of the Rockies. Do you feel that the much discussed MMW/SSW as well as severely negative AO, NAO, +PNA and -EPO episodes we are are experiencing along with a severe blocking regime spell much below average temps and a stormier period ahead for us? You know I and other members follow long range forecasting and would be interested in hearing your thoughts regardless of how painful it may be for those longing for Spring like many of us including yourself.
All those factors you mentioned do point to continued cold and stormy across the U.S. for the next 2-4 weeks (at least). The ECMWF is predicting a very cold period for the rest of February (east of Rockies). While we typically begin to see signs of spring by the 3rd week of February, that may be delayed this year until the 2nd week of March. Certainly can't rule out another winter weather event here based on what I'm seeing, even into late February or early March. I see no light at the end of the tunnel for those, like me, anxious for spring sunshine and warmth...
Thanks wxman57. I know many folks are very interested in your thoughts and your input is always appreciated! I too am more than ready for Spring, but this winter has been anything but typical and part of the reasoning behind some of my postings have been to point out some patterns that we have not seen in many years for not only SE TX, but across the CONUS. Again, thank you for the response. Meanwhile, the morning e-mail from Jeff...
Another strong storm system will bring snow/sleet/ and rain to the state Wed-early Friday.

Strong cold front that passed through the region yesterday evening is now well into the Gulf of Mexico with strong cold air advection in progress. N winds of 15-30mph will continue this morning as large high pressure cell builds into the state. Upstream temperatures in the upper 20’s over N TX will keep cold conditions in place today, even as skies clear from north to south. Surface low will help drag the cold air mass over the plains southward today into tonight while major snows return to the US east coast. High level cirrus already noted in an arc from Baja toward Austin will become more widespread and thicken as the next storm located off the N CA coast drops SSE toward Baja and then tracks eastward over TX late this week.

Clearing skies tonight will likely result in a light freeze for many locations, although winds will likely remain up some helping to mitigate a free fall. Expect lows in the upper 20’s up north to the lower to mid 30’s down south. Clouds will rapidly increase on Wednesday as the CA system and massive slug of Pacific moisture noted SW of Baja this morning heads for the region. High level cirrus will thicken and lower while mid and low level decks advance into the region from the WSW. Dry low levels will take some time to moisten and this does raise some concern for P-type at precipitation onset.

Expect precipitation to develop along the Rio Grande by late morning as isentropic lift becomes established as mid level moisture surges above the surface cold dome. Forecast soundings over SC TX show a dry low level with wet bulb temperatures supportive of evaporational cooling prior to the onset of low level warm air advection. Feel the air will be dry and cold enough to support sleet/snow with the onset of the precip as far east as I-35 and then a transition over the sleet/rain for our western counties as the precip. moves into our region Wed PM. May see the onset as all sleet and then a changeover to rain by late evening as the low level profile warms. For the metro Houston area…it should start as rain although a few sleet pellets can not be ruled out.

Widespread cold rain on Thursday with temperatures nearly steady in the mid to upper 30’s. Will need to watch Thursday night very closely as core of the upper low moves over the state and forecast sounding become increasingly favorable for P-type transitions to a winter mix over our northern counties. Not sure there will be much moisture left by the time the air column would support sleet/snow…but it may be close north of a line from Austin to Huntsville. Surface temperatures should remain above freezing for the entire duration of the event so anything that does fall as frozen will melt on impact with the ground. Heavier snows will be possible just NW and N of our area and this may cause some travel concerns up I-45 Thursday into Friday.

System should exit east of the area early Friday with the sun returning for at least 24 hours. It will remain cool to cold under continued cold air advection. Next system will be due in late in the weekend and the GFS is trending colder with this event as well. Wetter and colder has been the trend all winter…so will still with that and show increasing clouds over the weekend with highs in the 50’s..some 5-10 degrees below average and then bring rain back late Sunday into Monday. Right now it does not look like P-type will be an issue with this event…but it is over 5 days out.
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srainhoutx
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Take a look at what the storm is doing at the moment via Nesdis...

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
CAZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/09/10 1532Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1515Z
NOAA AMSU:1038Z/1123Z NASA AMSR-E:1001Z/1140Z
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
.
ATTN WFOS...SGX...HNX...LOX...
ATTN RFCS...CNRFC...
.
EVENT...ONE MAIN BAND...SMALLER SECOND BAND FOR HEIGHTEN FF THREAT...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MAIN ENHANCED BAND DOING ITS THING WITH
GENERAL MODERATE TO LOCAL HVY RAIN. A WAVE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED ON THIS
BAND OVER SANTA BARBARA AND THIS COULD HAVE RAMIFICATION FOR SPEED AND
AMOUNTS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTY AND JUST INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THE NEXT 3-8 HRS. DON'T THINK CHANGES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT MAYBE
AN HR OR TWO OF VERY HVY PRECIP COMPARED WITH AN HR OR SO OF JUST MDT TO
HVY MAYBE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FLOOD AND NO FLOOD. IN ANY CASE MOISTURE
VERY COMPACT AND WILL DELIVER THE HVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD WITH
SHWRS BEHIND AS DRY TONGUE TRIES TO COME SE UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW/ VORT
THAT WAS NOW JUST WNW OF SFO BAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SATELLITE RAIN ESTIMATES FOR 6HRS RUNNING
ABOUT 0.5" TO 1.0" WITH MOST OCCURRING IN A 3HR PERIOD.
SEE SATELLITE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC SHORTLY ON THE INTERNET AT ADDRESS BELOW...
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....

Image
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redneckweather
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Just got back from Leakey yesterday. I was completely out of the loop while out there, no t.v. and no cell phone and boy did I enjoy that! I was thinking about the possibility of wintry precip down here later this week but just as I thought, nothing but a bone chilling cold rain as usual. If anyone here wants to see snow, just head north a couple of hours and get into the fun.
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srainhoutx
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GGEM for Friday...

(click to enlarge)
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don
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While that looks nice if you want snow in southeast texas not buying it though...
txsnowmaker
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Thank you for posting the Canadian model for Friday, srain. Would you mind giving a brief summary of the forecast for the city of Houston based on this model, were it to verify?
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srainhoutx
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txsnowmaker wrote:Thank you for posting the Canadian model for Friday, srain. Would you mind giving a brief summary of the forecast for the city of Houston based on this model, were it to verify?

If you will give me the winning numbers to the Lotto! Seriously, there is lack of consistancy with the models regarding the 'finer details'. The GFS says too warm and further S with the Upper Air Feature as well as the Coastal Low/trough. The Canadian wants to get things near the Coast and bring some wrap around moisture behind the low. As wxman57 likes to say or post a picture of, it's like pullling the lever on a slot machine. Most of the time you get nothing. But sometimes (although few) you get all 7's.
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don
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Yea what the CMC suggest is that the low tracks closer to the coast and there for we get under the cold core of the low as rain changes to snow on the backside of the system similar to the 2008 snow event.But i dont think that will happen though...

On a Sidenote some of the GFS Esembles also show the same scenario playing out FWIW...
Last edited by don on Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
txsnowmaker
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Thank you for the feedback srain and don. I read on another forum that some of the GFS ensembles appear to be in agreement with the Canadian run. At this point, I will keep my expectations quite low for anything interesting this week. Of course, I am always happy to see expectations surpassed. ;)
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srainhoutx
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Updated HPC 5 Day QPF Totals...
(Click to enlarge) We are working on some issues if you haven't guessed. ;)
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srainhoutx
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HPC Model Peference...hmmm...

...SYSTEM INITIALLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET/CMC COMPROMISE

THE NAM BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE UPR LOW COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND MAJORITY OTHER SOLNS FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD. SOME 09Z
SREF/06-12Z GEFS MEMBERS DO OFFER POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOWER TIMING
THOUGH. THE NAM HAS YET TO DISPLAY A TREND TOWARD THE MAJORITY
FASTER SOLN BUT GIVEN A TYPICALLY SLOW BIAS WHEN THE NAM IS ON THE
SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD... WOULD FAVOR LEANING AWAY FROM
THE NAM WITH THE UPR SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY THE SFC LOW THAT TRACKS
OVER THE GULF. AMONG THE NON-NAM GUIDANCE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE GULF SFC LOW THAN MOST SOLNS ASIDE FROM THE
06-12Z GEFS MEANS... WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW FASTER TIMING THAN THE GFS. THE
UKMET/CMC/ECMWF ARE ALL SOMEWHAT DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE CORE
OF THE SHRTWV ALOFT BY LATE FRI. OVERALL THE GFS FCST APPEARS
BETTER THAN THE NAM... BUT GFS FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO APLCHNS BY
LATE IN THE FCST IS NOT THE MOST PREFERRED. AS THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN... WILL ULTIMATELY
RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WHICH TRACK THE
GULF OF MEXICO SFC LOW FARTHER NWD THAN THE GFS.
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sleetstorm
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Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?
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Portastorm
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sleetstorm wrote:Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?
Sleet, it will be pumping warm gulf air over our heads ... and slowly but surely working its way down to the surface so that the entire air column is saturated.
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srainhoutx
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Lets set a realistic, but not too easy target for ourselves, and forget about Houston and maybe a few pellets or flakes in all the rain, but instead follow instead whether winter weather can cancel school this week for the DISD.

Maybe a bit further S than Dallas Ed. Del Rio to Austin to College Station to Huntsville to Lufkin and points N may very well get in on the action IMHO. Anything S would be icing on the cake at this point IMHO...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 12 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2010


...WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/09 ECMWF FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A
GRADUAL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO
ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO THAT TIME
RANGE. PREFER THE NORTHERN MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE WAVE CROSSING
THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH MANY WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WINTER ULTIMATELY TRACKING LESS SUPPRESSED
THAN THE MODELS INITIALLY PROG. THE MANUAL PROGS INDICATE SNOW
AND ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH
CAROLINA WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE ORDER OF THE WEEK
FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE ROCKIES. FRONTS ARE EXPECT TO COME INTO THE NORTHWEST
OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH LESS ENERGY DIVING INTO CALIFORNIA.


FINAL...

THE 12Z/09 GEFS MEAN...ECMWF...AND GEM GLOBAL ALL TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH THE GULF WAVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...SO BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE GEM GLOBAL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW ONCE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC...LIFTING A DEEP CENTER A
GOOD BIT OF THE WAY TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A
TREND TO WATCH...WITH LARGE IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN
TERMS OF WINTER WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...STUCK WITH THE EARLIER BLEND
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...RULING THE GEM GLOBAL AS AN
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST DAY 6.


CISCO
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harpman
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Local mets are giving us a decent chance of sleet/snow/rain/mix in the New Orleans area Thursday night into Friday.
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Mr. T
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At 72 hours (day 3), the 12z GFS is by far the warmest in the upper levels of any global model. Why HGX is following it the closest, I have no idea, but I think at least areas north of Conroe will see some snow by friday morning... The 12z CMC and UKMET like this idea. I cannot see Euro QPF maps, but it looks closer to the CMC and UKMET than the warm GFS.
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TxLady
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redneckweather wrote:Just got back from Leakey yesterday.
Completely O.T.: redneckweather, have you ever driven the "3 Sisters" drive, in/around, Leakey? I had lunch in Leakey, back in July...a little family-owned place...quite tasty! :)
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