March Ends As One Of The 'Wettest' March On Record
Can anyone please give a heads up as to the potential pattern for the week of March 14-21for middle Tennessee area? We plan on traveling. Thanks!
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srainhoutx
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The 09Z SREF Ensembles tend to raise an eyebrow particularly across Central and portions of SE/E Texas into Louisiana Thursday morning. As Andrew mentioned yesterday in his excellent analysis regarding the dynamics and synoptic set up with this Arctic front compared to last week, the processes at work are further S and merit monitoring as the guidance continues to come in throughout today into tomorrow.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Heat Miser
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As of now the NWS H/G isn't quite as excited. But, as we've all witnessed, sometimes they don't predict an event until it's already commenced.
The chance for a rain/sleet mix across the
northern third of the forecast area from midnight Thursday through
late Thursday morning is modest but...as of now...the recent
(warmer) forecast soundings are indicative of rain.
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Portastorm
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12z model guidance is coming in wetter post front for south central Texas. In fact, the 12z RGEM shows possible thundersleet in Austin! I haven't seen that around here in more than a decade. The RGEM did very well last week on how it handled the winter storms.
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srainhoutx
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I just got home and have looked at the various raw data and computer guidance for IAH on N. It's beginning to look like we may have some issues just N of I-10 mainly N of the W of the Beltway 8 areas and the I-35 Corridor on S to College Station into Conroe certainly look worrisome for a round of freezing rain and heavy sleet possibly ending as some snow during the day on Thursday. That is a powerful Western storm brewing with lots of tropical moisture streaming NE and the Arctic front is moving quickly through Kansas at this hour.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Here is a snippet from WPC Forecaster Kocin regarding our wintry weather threat update a bit ago...
DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...
...CENTRAL ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE GENERAL LOCATION
AND AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW FOR A COMPLEX AND
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS A WIDE SECTION OF THE NATION.
BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN WHICH A LARGE BAND OF
MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS AN INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER AIR...THERE IS
ALSO THE COMPLEXITY OF RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VERY DRAMATIC GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE AXIS FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOWFALL OVER FAIRLY SMALL
DIFFERENCES. BOTH SITUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BECAUSE
VERY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL AGREEMENT AND CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST THEMSELVES HAVE LARGE CONSEQUENCES FOR CHANGES IN THE
FORECASTS.
THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR THIS EVENT ARE THE COMBINATION OF A LIFTING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT CAN PROVIDE A
SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE INITIALLY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THEN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY COLD AIR RETURNING ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. TO SOME...PERHAPS
THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE UNITED
STATES ON FRIDAY...A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO
FOLLOW FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ON DAY 1/TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE SOME MODERATE SNOW IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES WHILE
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS...WITH A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT SNOWFALL WILL EXCEED 4 INCHES.
AS THE ENTIRE TROUGH COMPLEX MOVES EASTWARD...A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS EXCEEDING 175 KTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITHIN A BROAD CONFLUENT ZONE COVERING THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SLIPS SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...A LARGE AREA
OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. COLDER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
MOSTLY SLEET AND SNOW. THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL
INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD...BUT IN A MUCH MORE SHALLOW LAYER. SNOW WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4
INCHES FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS
UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SPANNING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND
OHIO...AS WELL AS NORTHERN KENTUCKY/NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
FARTHER SOUTH...THE SAME PATTERN OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE
SLEET VERSUS FREEZING RAIN ALTERNATES. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN .25 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE.
BY DAY 2/WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...THE JOINT TROUGHS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY GENERATING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL FALL FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HEAVIEST SNOW COMBINED FROM DAYS 1 TO 2 WILL FALL FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST TENNESSEE ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCLUDING MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA. THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL THEN EXTEND EASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO NEAR NEW YORK CITY WHERE THIS IS A MODERATE
TO HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND EVEN A LOW TO
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN
MARYLAND/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE.
WHILE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WILL BE A RAIN TO
SLEET TO SNOW TRANSITION WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ENDING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OCCURS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS STILL A LOW
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN .25 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. THERE EVEN IS A CHANCE THAT
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA ON
DAY 3.
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS/LOUISIANA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH OF FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL IN THIS
REGION. ON DAY 3...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY MAKE IT ALL THE
WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.
KOCIN
DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...
...CENTRAL ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE GENERAL LOCATION
AND AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW FOR A COMPLEX AND
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS A WIDE SECTION OF THE NATION.
BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN WHICH A LARGE BAND OF
MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS AN INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER AIR...THERE IS
ALSO THE COMPLEXITY OF RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VERY DRAMATIC GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE AXIS FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOWFALL OVER FAIRLY SMALL
DIFFERENCES. BOTH SITUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BECAUSE
VERY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL AGREEMENT AND CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST THEMSELVES HAVE LARGE CONSEQUENCES FOR CHANGES IN THE
FORECASTS.
THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR THIS EVENT ARE THE COMBINATION OF A LIFTING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT CAN PROVIDE A
SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE INITIALLY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THEN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY COLD AIR RETURNING ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. TO SOME...PERHAPS
THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE UNITED
STATES ON FRIDAY...A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO
FOLLOW FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ON DAY 1/TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE SOME MODERATE SNOW IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES WHILE
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS...WITH A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT SNOWFALL WILL EXCEED 4 INCHES.
AS THE ENTIRE TROUGH COMPLEX MOVES EASTWARD...A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS EXCEEDING 175 KTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITHIN A BROAD CONFLUENT ZONE COVERING THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SLIPS SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...A LARGE AREA
OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. COLDER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
MOSTLY SLEET AND SNOW. THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL
INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD...BUT IN A MUCH MORE SHALLOW LAYER. SNOW WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4
INCHES FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS
UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SPANNING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND
OHIO...AS WELL AS NORTHERN KENTUCKY/NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
FARTHER SOUTH...THE SAME PATTERN OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE
SLEET VERSUS FREEZING RAIN ALTERNATES. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN .25 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE.
BY DAY 2/WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...THE JOINT TROUGHS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY GENERATING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL FALL FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HEAVIEST SNOW COMBINED FROM DAYS 1 TO 2 WILL FALL FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST TENNESSEE ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCLUDING MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA. THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL THEN EXTEND EASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO NEAR NEW YORK CITY WHERE THIS IS A MODERATE
TO HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND EVEN A LOW TO
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN
MARYLAND/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE.
WHILE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WILL BE A RAIN TO
SLEET TO SNOW TRANSITION WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ENDING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OCCURS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS STILL A LOW
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN .25 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. THERE EVEN IS A CHANCE THAT
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA ON
DAY 3.
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS/LOUISIANA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH OF FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL IN THIS
REGION. ON DAY 3...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY MAKE IT ALL THE
WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.
KOCIN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
from http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
The graphics on this page combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) depiction of expected weather type.
NDFD Rain (Chance) - There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01") at the valid time.
NDFD Rain (Likely) - Measurable rain (≥0.01") is likely at the valid time.
NDFD Snow (Chance) - There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01" liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
NDFD Snow (Likely) - Measurable snow (≥0.01" liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
NDFD Mix (Chance) - There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01" liquid equivalent) at the valid time. "Mixed" can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
NDFD Mix (Likely) - Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01" liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time. "Mixed" can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
NDFD Ice (Chance) - There is a chance of measurable freezing rain (≥0.01") at the valid time.
NDFD Ice (Likely) - Measurable freezing rain (≥0.01") is likely at the valid time.
NDFD T-Storm (Chance) - There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time. Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) - Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.
The graphics on this page combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) depiction of expected weather type.
NDFD Rain (Chance) - There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01") at the valid time.
NDFD Rain (Likely) - Measurable rain (≥0.01") is likely at the valid time.
NDFD Snow (Chance) - There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01" liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
NDFD Snow (Likely) - Measurable snow (≥0.01" liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
NDFD Mix (Chance) - There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01" liquid equivalent) at the valid time. "Mixed" can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
NDFD Mix (Likely) - Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01" liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time. "Mixed" can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
NDFD Ice (Chance) - There is a chance of measurable freezing rain (≥0.01") at the valid time.
NDFD Ice (Likely) - Measurable freezing rain (≥0.01") is likely at the valid time.
NDFD T-Storm (Chance) - There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time. Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) - Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.
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Paul Robison
Anything to fret over? HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-041245-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
635 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
Some wind gusts could be as high as 35mph. What problems will this cause, if any?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-041245-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
635 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
Some wind gusts could be as high as 35mph. What problems will this cause, if any?
I would say that 35 mph wind gusts would cause issues for people with comb overs and wigs!Paul Robison wrote:Anything to fret over? HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-041245-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
635 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
Some wind gusts could be as high as 35mph. What problems will this cause, if any?
Yes. Definite fret alert.Paul Robison wrote:Anything to fret over?
Some wind gusts could be as high as 35mph. What problems will this cause, if any?
Those that are susceptible to panic attacks, and enjoy attempts to hype, over-dramatize, and cause mass hysteria should huddle in a closet during this event.
[Disclaimer: not an official weather forecaster. Or psychoanalyst.]
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
After near 80F and some partly cloudy skies this afternoon, a strong cold front will move across SE TX this evening bringing dropping temps and winds gusting to 35MPH. Winter will be back with a 40F difference between today and tomorrow. Upper 20s and 30s expected Thursday morning across most of SE TX. Precip and clouds are forecast to move out of SE TX Thursday afternoon with cold but mostly clear skies Thursday night and Friday before slow warming trend and increasing rain chances. NTX will see the Winter precip fun beginning later today through tomorrow morning as Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect. 1-3" of sleet and snow are expected. Some thunder sleet and thunder snow may be possible tonight across the Dallas-Ft Worth areas.
-
Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
I see no reason to deviate from my thoughts yesterday about what the Austin area faces in the next 24-36 hours. Freezing rain after midnight into sleet and possible thunder sleet at that. This will be the worst winter storm we've seen in several years. It is unconscionable that no watches or warnings have been issued by the local NWS office based on existing data. The public will be mightily surprised.
SRH criteria for winter weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/meg/Wint ... riaMEG.pdf
current NWS San Antonio/Austin discussion uses 15Z as expected arrival time for wintry stuff, from their 4:35 AM discussion, looks like they're on top of it
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
RIO GRANDE...UNTIL 10 AM CST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG
THE RED RIVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...WILL SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF 15
TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR AREA. UPWARD MOTION FROM
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD CONTINUE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING
TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING...INCLUDING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH FROM THE MORNING HOURS.
current NWS San Antonio/Austin discussion uses 15Z as expected arrival time for wintry stuff, from their 4:35 AM discussion, looks like they're on top of it
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
RIO GRANDE...UNTIL 10 AM CST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG
THE RED RIVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...WILL SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF 15
TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR AREA. UPWARD MOTION FROM
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD CONTINUE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING
TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING...INCLUDING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH FROM THE MORNING HOURS.
-
Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
unome, you're kidding right? Read the criteria again if you're not. A Watch should have been issued yesterday given the existing model data at the time and per SRH's guidelines. As for onset of wintry precip at 15z ... uh ...what? Every model I have seen shows wintry precip beginning in the Austin area at 6z Thursday and ending around 12-14z Thursday.
The public here is being given conflicting information and if this storm pans out like much of the short-range guidance is suggesting, many individuals/businesses/schools will be caught off guard. The planning for these things begins a day before the actual event. There are conference calls ongoing now between agencies and schools and businesses and private meteorological firms discussing these possibilities.
The public here is being given conflicting information and if this storm pans out like much of the short-range guidance is suggesting, many individuals/businesses/schools will be caught off guard. The planning for these things begins a day before the actual event. There are conference calls ongoing now between agencies and schools and businesses and private meteorological firms discussing these possibilities.
see the NWS' reference to 15Z here, their words, not mine
000
FXUS64 KEWX 041200
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AT ALL TERMINALS WILL KEEP FLYING CATEGORY
IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS
WILL RISE TO MVFR WITH STRONG...GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. AT AUS THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR FZDZ THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 041200
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AT ALL TERMINALS WILL KEEP FLYING CATEGORY
IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS
WILL RISE TO MVFR WITH STRONG...GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. AT AUS THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR FZDZ THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AN
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES...WITH FURTHER COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST GULF
AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WITH THE RESULT EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS IS A LONGER PERIOD BELOW
FREEZING...AND HIGHER FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE
WARNING AREA. WE EXPECT THIS EVENT MAY HAVE THE LARGEST IMPACT OF
THE WINTER WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN. FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1/10 INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT FROM NEW BRAUNFELS TO SAN ANTONIO TO
BRACKETTVILLE.
TXZ171>173-183>192-050045-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0003.150305T0600Z-150305T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY.
* TIMING...ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA AFTER 6
PM...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER NOON THURSDAY.
* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CAUSING ICING OF 1/10 INCH
AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ICY ROADS AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
* OTHER IMPACTS...SIDEWALKS...DECKS...AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO WALK ON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY.
&&
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AN
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES...WITH FURTHER COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST GULF
AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WITH THE RESULT EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS IS A LONGER PERIOD BELOW
FREEZING...AND HIGHER FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE
WARNING AREA. WE EXPECT THIS EVENT MAY HAVE THE LARGEST IMPACT OF
THE WINTER WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN. FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1/10 INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT FROM NEW BRAUNFELS TO SAN ANTONIO TO
BRACKETTVILLE.
TXZ171>173-183>192-050045-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0003.150305T0600Z-150305T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY.
* TIMING...ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA AFTER 6
PM...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER NOON THURSDAY.
* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CAUSING ICING OF 1/10 INCH
AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ICY ROADS AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
* OTHER IMPACTS...SIDEWALKS...DECKS...AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO WALK ON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY.
&&
$$
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AN
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES...WITH FURTHER COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST GULF
AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WITH THE RESULT EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS IS A LONGER PERIOD BELOW
FREEZING...AND HIGHER FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE
WARNING AREA. WE EXPECT THIS EVENT MAY HAVE THE LARGEST IMPACT OF
THE WINTER WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN. FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1/10 INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT FROM NEW BRAUNFELS TO SAN ANTONIO TO
BRACKETTVILLE.
TXZ193-194-202>208-050045-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0006.150305T0600Z-150305T1800Z/
BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETTVILLE...
UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET..WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY.
* TIMING...ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA AFTER 6 PM...
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER NOON THURSDAY.
* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CAUSING ICING OF LESS THAN
1/10 INCH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PATCHY ICE ON ROADS AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
* OTHER IMPACTS...SIDEWALKS...DECKS...AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE
SLIPPERY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AN
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES...WITH FURTHER COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST GULF
AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WITH THE RESULT EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS IS A LONGER PERIOD BELOW
FREEZING...AND HIGHER FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE
WARNING AREA. WE EXPECT THIS EVENT MAY HAVE THE LARGEST IMPACT OF
THE WINTER WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN. FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1/10 INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT FROM NEW BRAUNFELS TO SAN ANTONIO TO
BRACKETTVILLE.
TXZ193-194-202>208-050045-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0006.150305T0600Z-150305T1800Z/
BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETTVILLE...
UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET..WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY.
* TIMING...ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA AFTER 6 PM...
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER NOON THURSDAY.
* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CAUSING ICING OF LESS THAN
1/10 INCH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PATCHY ICE ON ROADS AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
* OTHER IMPACTS...SIDEWALKS...DECKS...AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE
SLIPPERY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$