February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:35 am

Water Vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning further S across Southern California than was previously expected. Additional embedded disturbances are riding NE across Mexico toward S Central/SE Texas and Louisiana as the thundersleet moves NE away from the Dallas/Ft Worth Area. Further N in Canada you can see the next surge of cold air dropping S into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains.

Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:54 am

Eric Berger's blog today is exceptional.

He also delves into Houston's freeze history along with the current freezing rain threat. We've had 4 freezes this winter at IAH, two in November and two in January.

http://blog.chron.com/weather/2015/02/w ... -all-week/

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:04 am

jasons wrote:Eric Berger's blog today is exceptional.

He also delves into Houston's freeze history along with the current freezing rain threat. We've had 4 freezes this winter at IAH, two in November and two in January.

http://blog.chron.com/weather/2015/02/w ... -all-week/

his SciGuy & Weather blogs have been in my favorites for a long time, I just love them!

His Facebook page updates more frequently: https://www.facebook.com/ericbergersciguy

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:09 am

You know, speaking of Eric Berger, they have him listed as a meteorologist in the paper. Hummm....Did I miss something?

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:15 am

Oh this question is for Srain, Andrew or Wxman 57. Will they send up balloons at A&M or UH today?

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:21 am

Have a feeling Harris, Liberty, Jefferson and Orange counties will be in for a surprise later tonight as far a freezing rain goes. Often these counties come in a few degrees colder than always forecasted. We shall see...

Love Eric Berger's posts, but he doesn't go into much detail as I'd like. Many times it's very vague. He is on my "favorites" list ever since Ike though. Interesting facts he pulls together weather wise.

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:28 am

tireman4 wrote:Oh this question is for Srain, Andrew or Wxman 57. Will they send up balloons at A&M or UH today?

I believe Andrew stated they will launch a balloon today...if they haven't already. Andrew is probably doing some training of the new Met students since he is getting close to graduating with a Meteorological Degree from A&M this Spring...

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:33 am

It sure would be nice to see some frozen precip tonight into tomorrow before Winter ends this weekend! One last chance.. I sure hope we have some surprises tonight!

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:33 am

Temperature has dropped to 38F here in NW Harris County with light rain at this time.

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:39 am

Temp has dropped more than expected so far in Beaumont. 41 degrees at 530am and now flirting with 36. Still think many will be in for a surprise tonight/tomorrow...We shall see....

Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:59 am

until that temps gets to 34 or 32 degrees it will just be cold rain....come on temps - drop......

Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:50 am

Update from Jeff:

Freezing line progressing into SE TX with light rain and drizzle changing over to freezing light rain and freezing drizzle.

Surface temperatures continue to fall as expected with strong cold air advection processes underway over the region. College Station has fallen to 33 and Caldwell to 32 with Austin going over to 30 and freezing rain. Upstream P-types are all over the place with freezing rain/sleet/snow being reported at numerous sites and road conditions are quickly deteriorating from central TX into the southern portions of north TX and getting very close to our northern counties. Suspect with temperatures at freezing in Caldwell ice accumulation on elevated surfaces over Burleson County is likely underway…thus far bridges and overpasses are ok, but expect them to begin to freeze over in the next few hours and this will likely progress into the College Station/Brazos County area as well as Madison County by noon…or the start time of the freezing rain advisory.

Temperatures are running a few degrees colder than models have been forecasting…or at least the colder air is getting into the area faster. Not sure if this will have any impact on the freezing lines southward progression this afternoon and early evening. For now will not make any changes with the ongoing impacts across the region, but watch trends very closely this afternoon

Note: Warm layer aloft continues to strongly support a freezing rain/freezing drizzle profile. Airport METAR sensors reporting mixed precipitation or unknown precipitation are likely suspect or ice could be forming on the sensors causing error in P-type.

Will update again by mid afternoon.

Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:27 am

djmike wrote:Temp has dropped more than expected so far in Beaumont. 41 degrees at 530am and now flirting with 36. Still think many will be in for a surprise tonight/tomorrow...We shall see....

I don't think there will be any big surprises. Still quite warm aloft and above-freezing at the surface. Cold rain is all we'll see in most of Houston eastward through Beaumont. Certainly, no snow, and little chance of a stray sleet pellet.

Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:33 am

wxman57 wrote:
I don't think there will be any big surprises. Still quite warm aloft and above-freezing at the surface. Cold rain is all we'll see in most of Houston eastward through Beaumont. Certainly, no snow, and little chance of a stray sleet pellet.

Cold rain, as you first predicted a few days back.
When I was a kid weather often surprised me because honestly I never watched the news, and I certainly had no access to this internet.
We've been told numerous times a warm layer aloft will keep anything here strictly liquid.

Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:39 pm

KDWH (Hooks Airport - Tomball) currently (12:53PM) reporting Light Snow and 39 degrees - really?

Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:43 pm

Weather Bug in Baytown is showing the pressure dropping since around noon. Prior to that, it was steady. What does the pressure drop mean?

Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:53 pm

Launching a sounding around the 23z to 00z timeframe to analyze the depth of the cold air and how deep saturation is occurring at the lower levels. I expect that the threat for freezing rain accumulation has decreased and impacts across most of SE Texas will be relatively minimal. I will update later with more.

Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:03 pm

cajun wrote:KDWH (Hooks Airport - Tomball) currently (12:53PM) reporting Light Snow and 39 degrees - really?

That Automated Weather Observation Sensor (AWOS) was actually 'seeing' a heavy drizzle. I am about 14 miles W as the crow flies of DW Hooks and our visibility dropped and temperatures cooled as a heavy drizzle passed over. There is some verified light snow and sleet S of Waco at this time though.

Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:08 pm

My area is supposed to get to the freezing mark somewhere around 6pm. When I woke up this morning it was 39 degrees....currently sitting at 37 a little after 2pm. I don't see my area hitting freezing till late tonight. I agree with Andrew, do not see this being anything at all. Just another cold miserable wet day in Southeast Texas. Enough already... bring on the heat!!

Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:24 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.A SUB FREEZING AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
CITY OF HOUSTON WILL LIKELY BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING...POINTS NORTH OF A CALDWELL
TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON LINE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A BELLVILLE TO CONROE
TO CLEVELAND LINE WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS EITHER AS
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY FREEZE UPON CONTACT WITH COLD METAL
SURFACES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES. THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN REMODIFIED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING
AT 6 PM AND TO PERSIST THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHIFT IN
TIME IS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ONSET AND...IF THERE IS
MINOR GLAZING...A SLIGHTLY LONGER TIME TO MELT ANY THIN ICE. ANY
LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BUT A LIGHT ICING EVENT MAY BE ONGOING AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AROUND 9 AM.
OVERALL ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND ONE HUNDREDTH TO FIVE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...OR LESS THAN AN EIGHTH OF AN INCH. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD PICK UP SLIGHTLY
MORE ICE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...LIVINGSTON...CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...
CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN
222 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...POINTS NORTH OF A BELLVILLE TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND
LINE.

* TIMING...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE HUNDREDTH TO AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...OR GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE EIGHTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...ICY ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SAN JACINTO-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...BRENHAM...
NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON
222 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...POINTS NORTH OF A BELLVILLE TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND
LINE.

* TIMING...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE HUNDREDTH TO AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...OR GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE EIGHTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...ICY ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE SHOULD BE LIGHT.

February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

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