February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

[nuby3]

Well... Got some racing to do up in Decatur TX next weekend and it's showing some wintry garbage next weekend. Any thoughts on next weekend or are we to far out for that ?

Cold we can do, wet and icy aren't good for road racing.

What kind of race? Bike or run? I have the woodlands marathon next weekend, I am an ultra marathoner, can run in or on anything. If its a run you can surely do it and be fine, bike not so sure.

[wxman57]

Everything indicates very cold rain for most of Houston Monday/Tuesday. North side of Harris County could see some freezing rain (Conroe, Huntsville, up around Bellville and Brenham and north).

[redneckweather]

Yep, just some more typical cold n wet weather on the way for us here in Southeast, TX. Come on flip flop weather!!

[srainhoutx]

The SPC SREF ensemble mean as wxman57 mentioned for any chance of freezing rain N of I-10 would be during the overnight hours of early Tuesday morning.

The attachment 02212015 09Z SPC SREF 03Z Tuesday SREF_LIKELY__f066.gif is no longer available

[redneckweather]

Hopefully it is just rain or sleet. Freezing rain quite honestly just flat out sucks. Here's for hoping we get some good sleet instead.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is precariously close to a freezing rain event across Central and portions of SE Texas mainly N of I-10 and likely somewhere between the N Belt/US 290 and HWY 105 beginning Monday afternoon/evening into the overnight hours of early Tuesday depending on where the freezing line sets up. 2 meter temperatures are worrisome as they are near 32 to 33 degrees, if the GFS is correct. For folks in Louisiana, Lake Charles to near Lafayette may see freezing rain issues as well. For our neighbors across the Dallas/Ft Worth area, it appears Winter Storm Warning may be needed later today and there is some potential that Winter Weather Advisories and possibly Winter Storm Watches could be hoisted across portions of the Hill Country and may include the New Braunfels to Austin areas.

The attachment 02212015 12Z GFS 60 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_10.png is no longer available

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1034 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
WACO TO LAMPASAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT BUT MUCH COLDER AIR IS NOW POURING
INTO THE UPPER PLAINS AND IS ON TARGET TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

IN THE MEANTIME...ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING
AND CLEARING BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
THIS IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SLIGHT WARMUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THINK SKIES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS VERY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY SLEET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...FREEZING RAIN. SOME
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE MODELED BY SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE AND WE WILL ASSESS THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DUNN

[Ptarmigan]

Hopefully it is just rain or sleet. Freezing rain quite honestly just flat out sucks. Here's for hoping we get some good sleet instead.

Freezing rain is also dangerous as it causes ice on roads.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update on the late next week storm system expected Thursday night into Saturday. The GFS has trended much colder and suggest once again p-type issue may well be a problem. The latest MEX text data suggest freezing rain as far S as Hobby may be an issue, so our weather week ahead will be filled with additional issues to monitor beyond Monday night into early Tuesday.

[harpman]

A quick update on the late next week storm system expected Thursday night into Saturday. The GFS has trended much colder and suggest once again p-type issue may well be a problem. The latest MEX text data suggest freezing rain as far S as Hobby may be an issue, so our weather week ahead will be filled with additional issues to monitor beyond Monday night into early Tuesday.

We are monitoring it here in SE Louisiana as well.

[Karen]

Where is the DISLIKE button LOL!!! My fruit trees are in full bloom. NO to frozen temps and precip please ))))

[Texaspirate11]

Pouring rain down by the bay

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Winter Storm heading for TX early next week….possible second winter storm late next week.

Ingredients appear to be coming together to produce a round of winter precipitation across a large part of TX and portions of SE TX Monday and Tuesday. Overnight model guidance has not changed much with respect to the expected surface temperatures (thus there has been no real cooling or warming trend on the model output). Confidence has increased however that the surface freezing line will in fact push into SE TX late Monday afternoon and early evening be driven by cold air advection across what by that time will be an ice/sleet covered north TX. Models also continue to show a very significant warm nose (layer of warm air) a few thousand feet above the surface with the latest NAM model showing temperatures pushing 50 degrees atop the very cold surface layer…this suggests rain drops will be falling to the surface with a “warm” temperature…likely well above freezing and will have to cool to the surface temperature over time. The NAM also now shows the surface freezing line progressing as far south as I-10 Tuesday morning…for now will discount this model as a colder outlier in favor of the slightly warmer GFS and ECMWF models.

There will be little to no room for evaporative cooling as the air mass will saturate tomorrow behind the front and remain saturated through the period…this leaves only cold air advection to cool the surface temperature to freezing or below. Best chances of surface temperatures falling to freezing Monday evening will be along and north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Cleveland and this will support a change of light rain/drizzle to freezing light rain/freezing drizzle. QPF amounts are forecasted in the .05 to .10 of an inch range within the sub-freezing air mass suggesting some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces is possible. Current QPF amounts suggest a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch may be needed for the counties of: Burleson, Madison, Walker, Trinity, Polk, and San Jacinto on Sunday with the critical time period being Monday evening after 600pm through about 1000am Tuesday morning.

South of a College Station to Conroe to Cleveland line surface temperatures are still expected to remain above freezing suggesting no change to freezing rain or ice accumulation. Would not at this point rule out any southward shift in the freezing line over the next 48 hours, but there is no strong indication at this moment that freezing rain/drizzle would impact Harris County or the metro Houston area. Lows Tuesday morning across Harris County will likely range from 33-35 degrees.

Accumulations:
Ice accumulation will be possible north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Cleveland Monday night and Tuesday morning and most likely north of a line from Caldwell to Huntsville to Livingston where surface temperatures will likely be closer to 30. Tough call on accumulations given the very warm temperatures aloft and only 30-32 at the surface. Elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines will likely see some accumulations with bridges and overpasses a little tougher call. General thinking right now is less than .10 of ice accumulation, but a degree or two colder could make for better accumulation potential especially on the elevated bridges and overpasses. No ice accumulation is currently expected in Harris County.

As with all winter weather events there is a high degree of uncertainty and with this event in particular much depends on 1-2 degrees making a big difference between ice and no ice. No other P-type (sleet or snow) is expected across SE TX with the impressive warm layer aloft.

Late Next Week:
Another strong arctic cold front looks to cross the area late Thursday and then a storm system approaches from the west Friday/Saturday with the cold air in place. Could once again be dealing to P-type concerns across a large part of TX including portions of SE TX next Friday evening into Saturday.

Will likely see winter weather products issued Sunday for portions of the area as well as surrounding portions of C and N TX to match with the Winter Storm Watch already issued for a large portion of N TX. Travel to N TX is strongly discouraged after noon on Sunday as ice and sleet begin to accumulate over that portion of the state. Little to no improve to surface travel is expected over N TX until after noon on Tuesday resulting in a prolonged period of impact.

[Heat Miser]

It will be cold, rainy, and raw for us, just as wxman suggested. I'll appreciate Spring that much more after these next bouts of nasty cold weather.

[Texaspirate11]

100 days til cane season.....
Just thought I throw that warm thought in....

[TexasBreeze]

It will be cold, rainy, and raw for us, just as wxman suggested. I'll appreciate Spring that much more after these next bouts of nasty cold weather.

Definately agreed!

[ticka1]

looks like next we get another chance at frozen precip in area....from posts i am seeing on social media

[jasons2k]

It was so nice outside today - a great day for yard work and some - and I emphasize some - spring prep. Geez I was hoping to start my spring planting and pruning but I need to hold off, it appears. *sigh* Maybe by two weekends from now....

I am SO done with this winter weather garbage. I sure hope we're done after this week. Yes, the fruit tree gardeners do need to keep a close watch. The trees think it's spring already. Wish they were right...

[Paul Robison]

A quick update on the late next week storm system expected Thursday night into Saturday. The GFS has trended much colder and suggest once again p-type issue may well be a problem. The latest MEX text data suggest freezing rain as far S as Hobby may be an issue, so our weather week ahead will be filled with additional issues to monitor beyond Monday night into early Tuesday.

We are monitoring it here in SE Louisiana as well.

QUESTION: Is this projected storm packing enough ice to shut the city of Houston down for (maybe) days? Or are we just looking at the usual bridge, icing issues, too?

NOTE: Significant model disagreement exists. GFS is strong with the front, but the ECMWF (usually the better one) is much weaker with it. I'm sure everyone will watch temps closely again, but think atmosphere will probably change over the next several days. In other words: a possible disappointment for ice fans.

[Paul Robison]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Winter Storm heading for TX early next week….possible second winter storm late next week.

Ingredients appear to be coming together to produce a round of winter precipitation across a large part of TX and portions of SE TX Monday and Tuesday. Overnight model guidance has not changed much with respect to the expected surface temperatures (thus there has been no real cooling or warming trend on the model output). Confidence has increased however that the surface freezing line will in fact push into SE TX late Monday afternoon and early evening be driven by cold air advection across what by that time will be an ice/sleet covered north TX. Models also continue to show a very significant warm nose (layer of warm air) a few thousand feet above the surface with the latest NAM model showing temperatures pushing 50 degrees atop the very cold surface layer…this suggests rain drops will be falling to the surface with a “warm” temperature…likely well above freezing and will have to cool to the surface temperature over time. The NAM also now shows the surface freezing line progressing as far south as I-10 Tuesday morning…for now will discount this model as a colder outlier in favor of the slightly warmer GFS and ECMWF models.

There will be little to no room for evaporative cooling as the air mass will saturate tomorrow behind the front and remain saturated through the period…this leaves only cold air advection to cool the surface temperature to freezing or below. Best chances of surface temperatures falling to freezing Monday evening will be along and north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Cleveland and this will support a change of light rain/drizzle to freezing light rain/freezing drizzle. QPF amounts are forecasted in the .05 to .10 of an inch range within the sub-freezing air mass suggesting some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces is possible. Current QPF amounts suggest a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch may be needed for the counties of: Burleson, Madison, Walker, Trinity, Polk, and San Jacinto on Sunday with the critical time period being Monday evening after 600pm through about 1000am Tuesday morning.

South of a College Station to Conroe to Cleveland line surface temperatures are still expected to remain above freezing suggesting no change to freezing rain or ice accumulation. Would not at this point rule out any southward shift in the freezing line over the next 48 hours, but there is no strong indication at this moment that freezing rain/drizzle would impact Harris County or the metro Houston area. Lows Tuesday morning across Harris County will likely range from 33-35 degrees.

Accumulations:
Ice accumulation will be possible north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Cleveland Monday night and Tuesday morning and most likely north of a line from Caldwell to Huntsville to Livingston where surface temperatures will likely be closer to 30. Tough call on accumulations given the very warm temperatures aloft and only 30-32 at the surface. Elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines will likely see some accumulations with bridges and overpasses a little tougher call. General thinking right now is less than .10 of ice accumulation, but a degree or two colder could make for better accumulation potential especially on the elevated bridges and overpasses. No ice accumulation is currently expected in Harris County.

As with all winter weather events there is a high degree of uncertainty and with this event in particular much depends on 1-2 degrees making a big difference between ice and no ice. No other P-type (sleet or snow) is expected across SE TX with the impressive warm layer aloft.

Late Next Week:
Another strong arctic cold front looks to cross the area late Thursday and then a storm system approaches from the west Friday/Saturday with the cold air in place. Could once again be dealing to P-type concerns across a large part of TX including portions of SE TX next Friday evening into Saturday.

Will likely see winter weather products issued Sunday for portions of the area as well as surrounding portions of C and N TX to match with the Winter Storm Watch already issued for a large portion of N TX. Travel to N TX is strongly discouraged after noon on Sunday as ice and sleet begin to accumulate over that portion of the state. Little to no improve to surface travel is expected over N TX until after noon on Tuesday resulting in a prolonged period of impact.

What do you mean "prolonged period of impact?"

[FtIJ]

Longtime lurker who appreciates all y'all do in educating guys like me on weather.

My question is about flying in and out of Dallas on Monday. I noticed the update said any travel to Dallas should be avoided but does that include all areas of travel or just staying off the roads?

Excuse my ignorance, but I've got a lot of family in for son's birthday and while some are headed out tomorrow others won't be until Monday. Appreciate any thoughts.