February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

[kayci]

Sleet here in Alvin, TX

[djmike]

Flurries just started in Beaumont...

[BlueJay]

Cue the music...Here Comes the Sun! : - D

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center continues to advertise well below normal temperature and slightly above to above normal precipitation in their Day 6 to 10 Forecast. Some of the analog dates are very impressive for our Region. The WPC Day 3 to 7 surface charts suggest the first in a series of cold fronts arrives Sunday morning. The fly in the ointment continues to be what happens to our West as a deep trough and upper level storm develops across the Great Basin. This upper low and positive tilted cold upper trough may bring some significant snow across portions of the Southern Rockies (Colorado/New Mexico) that has been lacking a bit lately. It does appear there may be a second storm system dropping S from Central/Western Canada into the Great Basin around the middle of next week bringing an additional surge of very cold air across the Inter Mountain West and Plains into Texas and Louisiana.

02172015 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

02172015 CPC Day 6 to 10 Temps 610temp_new.gif

02172015 CPC Day 6 to 10 Precip 610prcp_new.gif

02172015 Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

[Heat Miser]

That's just depressing, srain.

[srainhoutx]

A light freeze this morning across NW Harris County as well as DW Hooks where we have reached 31F so far and the typical cold spot in Conroe has dropped to 29F. Temperatures should rebound nicely to the upper 60's today and continue moderating into Saturday.

It still looks like a strong front arrives Sunday, but the computer models are flip flopping on the exact timing as well as precipitation chances. The steady European model slowed down the front until Monday and the GFS is now faster with the front by about 18 to 24 hours. There remains a lot of uncertainty on our sensible weather next week with a pesky upper low/trough to our West, but it looks to be rather chilly and possibly unsettled until the trough eventually swings East across our Region.

[wxman57]

That's just depressing, srain.

There's a light at the end of the cold tunnel. All models agree on a major pattern shift by the end of the month. The Polar vortex will depart southeastern Canada, replaced by faster zonal (west to east) flow across the U.S. This will lead to a big warm-up across the U.S. and central/eastern Canada for early March.

[jasons2k]

Hit 31 here with a forecast low of 34. It freezes when it's not forecast, and it doesn't freeze when it's supposed to. Frustrating to say the least.

[wxman57]

Hit 31 here with a forecast low of 34. It freezes when it's not forecast, and it doesn't freeze when it's supposed to. Frustrating to say the least.

That's within a typical margin for error across the city, though it just happens to cross a critical temperature (32F). No one notices or cares when the forecast is for a low of 77 and the low turns out to be 74.

[wxman57]

I've been monitoring this patch of wildflowers on the Hermann Park side of the relatively new Bill Coats bridge over Brays Bayou since last spring. There hasn't been one time when I passed this patch and didn't see at least one bluebonnet blooming since last spring. Here's a shot I took on February 7th. Most of the plants in the picture appear to be bluebonnets, but they look different than earlier this winter when most were brown and shriveled up. That one lone bloom is signaling the arrival of spring!

[ticka1]

It will be nice to see the bluebonnets and indian paint brushes this year - should be an awesome year of viewing them.

Heading up to Angel Fire/Red River NM over spring break - hopefully the heat will not arrive there until later in March - would like to enjoy the snow activities we have planned.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests some possibility of wintry mischief (freezing rain/sleet) across the Hill Country and possibly the Northern areas of SE Texas on Monday.

02182015 12Z GFS f120.gif

02182015 12Z GFS f126.gif

02182015 12Z GFS f132.gif

[jasons2k]

Hit 31 here with a forecast low of 34. It freezes when it's not forecast, and it doesn't freeze when it's supposed to. Frustrating to say the least.

That's within a typical margin for error across the city, though it just happens to cross a critical temperature (32F). No one notices or cares when the forecast is for a low of 77 and the low turns out to be 74.

From a purely statistical standpoint, yes. But it's about more than just the raw numbers. There's a lot more context behind those raw numbers. The NWS (and Media) had been consistently saying for days a freeze was not expected in the Houston Metro area. It's been mentioned in numerous AFDs out of our local NWS office that there 'may be a light freeze in some of the cooler spots in our northern counties, like Trinity & Houston'

Here's a quote from yesterday afternoon's AFD: "A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BRIEFLY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK"

Given all that, it's pretty clear the NWS was not expecting any freezing temps in our immediate area and they were being a bit too conservative.

I can acknowledge I'm being a stickler here - but I've had a problem dating back years now, about how our local NWS office tends to take a very lackadaisical approach to freezing temps. They frequently bust and they frequently do not adequately warn the gardening community of potential risks.

If it was going to be that close of a call, this late in the season with everything in bloom, they should have at least issued a freeze watch. And their AFD should have ready something like this: 'although guidance consistently keeps the area above freezing tomorrow morning, with calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points, some locations may dip to freezing so precautions should be taken to protect tender vegetation.'

Plus, there was a heavy frost and that wasn't even mentioned.

I might not be so upset about this if there wasn't such a discrepancy between our local NWS office and how other offices treat these events. For example, this would have been handled much differently by the NWS Ruskin office. They always err on the side of caution and alert the public because of the simple fact that it's their primary job.

[unome]

they issue freeze warnings for the 1st freeze only http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=freeze_info

Freeze Warning: Issued for the first freeze of the year with lows ≤ 32°F. Freeze warnings are only reissued for counties that did not experience a freeze yet. Can also be reissued if late season freeze is expected (after March 15th).

[srainhoutx]

Jason, I tend to agree with you on this issue. As unome just posted, the official guidelines that HGX follows are what they are. I've seen it questioned many times via NWSchat and the answer is always the same. I knew last evening that we were likely going to get to freezing up here in NW Harris County and took some precautions. The wild card last night was what was happening upstream with the clouds and elevated storms that developed late yesterday across the Panhandle/Oklahoma and N Central Texas. This mornings frost was probably the second biggest frost I've seen up here this winter season. The frost was all the way down to ground level and the grass was covered in frost.

Next week probably needs to be monitored fairly closely. The GFS as well as the ECMWF have been rather insistent that it will get cold and when the Western upper low/trough finally moves E, a stronger surge of very cold Canadian air arrives ahead of the upper level storm setting the stage for a messy late week winter like storm potential. Time will tell, but it bears watching.

02182015 12Z GFS 222 gfs_T2ma_us_38.png

02182015 12Z GFS 234 gfs_T2m_us_40.png

[jasons2k]

There is also this in their official guidelines:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=freeze_info

Freeze Watch: Potential for freezing conditions in the next 24 to 48 hrs.

The "freeze watch" was created specifically for borderline events like last night, especially this late in the season and when we are experiencing an early spring. It was the perfect opportunity to use it and alert the public.

The "potential for freezing conditions" was certainly there. So it's either a) they busted or b) they chose to ignore it and shrug it off. They can't have it both ways!

And I won't even get started on frost advisories. Geez, what a mess that was.

[wxman57]

I agree that there should have been a freeze watch issued for northern and western parts of the city last night (from your comments, I assume it wasn't). There is always some uncertainty in the temperature forecast, particularly across such a large metropolitan area. Interesting that the NWS raised the predicted low at IAH from 34 to 36 between 3pm and 8pm last evening. The low at IAH was 33, but it was at least 28 in Conroe and 32-33 at Huntsville. Was there no freeze watch/warning issued for those areas?

[srainhoutx]

Not a lot of change today from yesterday from the Climate Prediction Center regarding the Day 6 to 10 Range.

02182015 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

02182015 CPC Day 6 to 10 Temps 610temp_new.gif

02182015 CPC Day 6 to 10 Precip 610prcp_new.gif

[jasons2k]

Interesting that the NWS raised the predicted low at IAH from 34 to 36 between 3pm and 8pm last evening. The low at IAH was 33, but it was at least 28 in Conroe and 32-33 at Huntsville.

Yes, I picked-up on the increase last night, and I attributed it to the clouds that were to our NW. I thought they would save us. I am typically one-degree colder than IAH and one degree warmer (or the same) as my 'point to click' forecast on the NWS grid. I was expecting a low of 33-34, but dipped to 31&32 (I have two thermometers at two different locations).

And I didn't even think about the frost -- that was more damaging than the cold.

[srainhoutx]

The leading edge of a strong front that will give the Eastern half of Texas a glancing shot of cold air is making progress SW from Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. Temperatures may approach the freezing mark again tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10 and East of 290. This shot of cold air will threaten Florida with freezing temperatures very far S into South Florida just NW of Ft Lauderdale.