Fall 2014 - Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

FWIW, this is my winter forecast issued yesterday. Please understand the whole reference thing to the "PWC" is a tongue-in-cheek series of references from a long-standing "tradition" over on Storm2k. But this is my best guess ... we shall see:

THE HOUNDS OF WINTER WILL BAYING LONG AND STRONG
PWC calling for nasty Texas winter for 2014-15 with many storms

Austin, TX – The Portastorm Weather Center (“PWC”) today revealed its 2014-15 winter forecast for the State of Texas. If the PWC is anything to close to accurate, winter will be a nasty one for the Lone Star State with below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the months of December 2014 through February 2015.

“We’re calling for one heckuva winter with a number of snow/ice threats for the state and a general overall aspect of cold and stormy,” said the lead meteorologist for the PWC. “All the teleconnections, analogs, and data to date tells us to expect an active Southern jet stream and frequent cold fronts of Canadian and Polar origins. This will combine to provide a number of wintry weather events in the state, especially in North Texas. We think those living north of an Abilene to Waco to College Station line are going to have quite a nasty winter season. Yes, the Hounds of Winter will bay long and strong this time.”

This is the first time in three winter seasons in which the PWC has issued a forecast with such certainty. Its abbreviated seasonal forecast for the 2012-13 winter was disastrous and the PWC refrained last winter from issuing any forecasts due to a “re-tooling of internal resources.” Despite occasional criticism from PWC clients and general weather enthusiasts, the PWC this time is more confident in its forecast.

As the press event was ending, one reporter asked the PWC spokesperson a pointed and terse question: “It’s been 10 years since there was measurable snowfall in Austin and your track record ain’t so great. Are you saying this is the year it’s going to happen again?” The PWC spokesperson nodded his head and told the reporter “Yes, the PWC mets believe it will snow in Austin this winter season with more than trace amounts. But I wouldn’t buy that snowblower just yet.”

The PWC also released its reasoning on the winter forecast as follows:

The NE Pacific SST values remain well above normal, possibly even more so than last year at this time. The EPO is currently tanking and we think we’ll see a negative EPO/positive PNA reading for much of the winter. Consequently, we see a repeat of last winter in that strong ridging out west will help facilitate the dumping of cold, Arctic air into the nation’s midsection. Eurasian snow cover is rapidly advancing this month (the Cohen effect) and is at an even higher percentage than this time last year. That, along with predicted occasional Greenland blocking, should help a strongly negative AO and NAO to develop and be a frequent teleconnection couplet this winter. So what does that mean? We think it means that the cold air outbreaks in Texas this winter will not be nearly as transient as they were last winter. When the cold comes, it will last more than 24-36 hours. With a weak Modoki Nino looking more and more likely, we should see enough Southern stream energy to create “excitement” from time to time, let along some strong upper level lows which will create havoc in the midst of Arctic air. Remember that these events usually mean if you end up underneath the upper level low, your chances for ice/snow rise significantly. We also see synoptic situations like this occur where an upper level low traversing the state will shear out as it moves west to east and, consequently, you see a coastal low develop with the possibility of slinging moisture over a cold dome of air and creating a potential winter weather event for Central, East, and Southeast Texas.

The period of below-normal temperatures will not last as long as what we saw last winter. November and December will have some serious cold fronts but they will not put the state into a permanent deep freeze as temps will warm back to normal in intervals. Look for more variable conditions during these months but not without some dramatic, changeable conditions. However, as we get into January the duration and strength of the fronts along with increasing Southern jet activity will ramp up the storm threats. We do think North Texas is going to be in for a banner winter season with multiple snowfall potential. Snow/ice threats for places like Austin, San Antonio, Del Rio, and Houston will be less frequent than North Texas but they will exist as we believe upper level lows traversing the state will sporadically dip that far south as they move west to east. It’s not out of the question that even the Rio Grande Valley could see a frozen precipitation threat this winter at some point, more likely in early 2015.

We are in complete agreement with meteorologist Larry Cosgrove on our best guesses for analog years: 2009-10, 2002-03, and 1969-70.

[BlueJay]

"Snow/ice threats for places like Austin, San Antonio, Del Rio, and Houston will be less frequent than North Texas but they will exist as we believe upper level lows traversing the state will sporadically dip that far south as they move west to east."

This makes me shiver just to read this forecast! I'm not quite ready for this....

[jeff]

I sure would like to see the sub-tropical jet start to show up. October is usually a wet month in TX, yet since last Monday and into next week it has been dry. While I believe the atmosphere is responding to the warm SST's in the Pacific...I am wary of just how "above" the winter rainfall may be in the state. We still have other global factors working negatively toward El Nino which is a possible explantation of why it did not become the "strong" El Nino pointed for in the spring of 2014.

[Ptarmigan]

I sure would like to see the sub-tropical jet start to show up. October is usually a wet month in TX, yet since last Monday and into next week it has been dry. While I believe the atmosphere is responding to the warm SST's in the Pacific...I am wary of just how "above" the winter rainfall may be in the state. We still have other global factors working negatively toward El Nino which is a possible explantation of why it did not become the "strong" El Nino pointed for in the spring of 2014.

I think it will be a weak to moderate El Nino.

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at ImpactWeather have released their Winter Forecast.

11202014 Impact Weather Winter Forecast 64767_10152544438722862_5643624944270815523_n.jpg

[texoz]

Ugh. It's looking like outdoor sports (soccer tournaments) in Dallas and San Antonio for this Saturday are going to be difficult to impossible. Is the rain event for these cities a long duration, or could it happen earlier in the day and start to clear by afternoon?

[BlueJay]

Thanks for posting the Winter forecast srain. This looks like it could be a repeat of the crazy cold of 1977 that wxman57 was talking about. The time to prepare is at hand.

[sambucol]

Is there another shot of cold air for our air that's showing up in the models? When's the cold air returning!

[BlueJay]

This winter is approximately 1/3 over. I am wondering if the predictions for EXTREME COLD will materialize for us in the Houston area...

[harpman]

Doesn't look like it so far......

[jasons2k]

This winter is approximately 1/3 over. I am wondering if the predictions for EXTREME COLD will materialize for us in the Houston area...

In terms of the actual weather, winter is defined as Dec-Jan-Feb in the northern hemisphere. It is closer to 2/3 finished at this point.

The "official" calendar seasons don't align exactly with the weather, and reflect more tradition rather than actual events:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season

[BlueJay]

I'm still counting most of March as winter as I recall the ice storm of March 2014. It was a winter wonderland for a day or so. That could happen again.

[BlueJay]

Yes, it's still winter. And it may be rare, but it looks like we may actually have another cold blast mid part of this week.
I am enjoying these "warmer" 50's weather for now and am looking forward to maybe the 70's before the cold hits us again.

[BlueJay]

Good bye Winter 2014-2015!

Hellooooooooooooo Spring 2015!

[Texaspirate11]

Good bye Winter 2014-2015!

Hellooooooooooooo Spring 2015!

Good riddance Winter!