January 26-28th 2015 Nor'Easter

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unome
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srainhoutx
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Since our Region is experiencing benign weather, I thought we could focus on the powerful Nor'Easter wrapping up along the Mid Atlantic up into the Canadian Maritimes. The overnight guidance continues to advertise some impressive QPF amounts from near Philadelphia, across New York City into Providence, RI/Boston, MA up to Hartford, ME. The surface low is organizing near Cape Hatteras, NC this morning with a secondary low approaching from the W near West Virginia and Western North Carolina. Rapid cyclogenesis/bombogensis at the surface should occur later today into the overnight hours developing a sub 980mb low with Hurricane Force winds along Cape Cod into Boston and up to Kennebunkport Maine. As Jeff mentioned in his briefing, snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are expected with the possibility of thundersnow with the most intense bands that set up just N and W of the slow moving surface low. Areas across Long Island into Boston may see totals near 36 to possibly 40 inches of snow with drifting near or possibly exceeding 15 feet. The other major concern is tidal flooding along the Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern shore of Massachusetts along Cape Cod into Boston Harbor and Down East Maine. This will be the Major Weather Headline for the next several days and we can use this thread to post pictures, videos etc.. from that Region to cover the event locally.

From Jeff's Morning briefing:

Historic Northeast US Blizzard:

Life threatening….historic…blizzard today-early Wednesday for the NE US.

A powerful upper level trough moving across the OH valley this morning will spawn surface low pressure off the NJ coast today. This surface low will deepen at an incredible rate (30mb in 24hrs surface pressures falling through the 980’s) as it moves ENE toward SE MA. Very heavy snowfall will develop this afternoon in the region from NYC to Boston with hourly snowfall rates nearing 3-4 inches. The storm system slows on Tuesday allowing heavy snow to be prolonged across the region. Storm totals of 2-3 feet appear likely from NYC to eastern Maine with the highest totals upwards of 4 ft near/NW of Boston. Model QPF continues to show a large area of 2.5-3.0 inches of liquid and using standard snow ratios yields 25-30 inches of snow for a large area.

Sustained winds of 45-55mph with gust to 80mph will be likely across the region resulting in extensive blowing and drifting. Snow drifts may approach 10-15 ft in areas of highest accumulation. Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the coast from Long Island to north of Boston and this will result in white out conditions and extensive ground blizzard.

Very strong onshore flow will result in moderate to major storm surge flooding especially in and around Boston where ENE winds will funnel into the coast. Damaging waves on top of the storm surge flooding may result in damage to coastal structures. Prolonged period of blowing sea spray and temperatures in the mid 20’s will support crippling ice accumulations on structures near the coast. The offshore islands and Cape Cod will suffer with hours of near hurricane force winds.

Doubt any NE US airport will remain open past late this afternoon and virtually the entire region will be shut down Tuesday and possibly Wednesday with crippling impacts at New York City, Boston, and Harford. May not see normal airport operations returned to the hardest hit areas until late week which will have a significant impact on US aviation travel.

This blizzard will likely rival some of the greatest storm total snowfalls on record for the region.


Image

Image
01262015 1340Z Surface Charts namussfcwbg.gif
01262015 10Z Day 1 to 3 QPF d13_fill.gif
01262015 730Z Low Track lowtrack_ensembles.gif
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

VALID 12Z MON JAN 26 2015 - 12Z THU JAN 29 2015

DAYS 1 TO 3...

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND WEAKENS WITH A NEW STORM FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS NEW LOW INTENSIFIES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
IT HEADS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A
LITTLE SLOWING MOTION WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOOPING IN THIS
AREA BEFORE WEAKENING WED AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.

THE MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING TODAY IN
WESTERN PA
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS
TROUGH RESULTS IN A SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
THE WV/MD BORDER INTO WESTERN PA TO NY BORDER.

THE LATEST MODELS THOUGH ARE INSISTING THAT THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE
INTO A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...EASTERN NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES MAJOR METROPOLITAN
AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA THROUGH NEW YORK
CITY AND UP TO BOSTON. THE MODELS DEPICT A POWERFUL DEFORMATION
ZONE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING INLAND IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VERY INTENSE
SNOWFALL AS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS COMBINE FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES. ASIDE FROM THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP...THE MOIST
ONSHORE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW FAVORS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
TERRAIN OF WESTERN CT TO THE HILLS WEST OF BOSTON.

MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF
HEAVY SNOW TO RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MANY AREAS FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM NEW YORK CITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATE
EASTERN MA AND RI AS HAVING THE HIGHEST TOTALS. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE TRENDED A FEW INCHES LOWER ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SNOW AREA ACROSS NORTHERN NY/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GFS AND 00Z GEFS MEAN HAD WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE
TRACKS VS THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF. MANUAL PROGS FAVORED THE 00Z
ECMWF/00Z NAM/21Z SREF MEAN/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BlueJay
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Wishing our NorthEastern neighbors warm thoughts and prayers.
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Texaspirate11
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KUDOS to the Governor of Mass.
Just declared that ANYONE that is out on the roads and not part of emergency team (Police, Fire, EMS)
will be fined $500 -
Wish we had that in cane season.

Link:

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog ... w-updates/
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BlueJay
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Could someone explain why the temperatures in the Northeast will be well below freezing tonight but they expect to receive 2 to 3 feet of snow but if our temperatures are "too cold" (below freezing) we get ice with NO snow? Obviously, I am a novice and request everyone's patience while I learn.
Thank you in advance.
harpman
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BlueJay wrote:Could someone explain why the temperatures in the Northeast will be well below freezing tonight but they expect to receive 2 to 3 feet of snow but if our temperatures are "too cold" (below freezing) we get ice with NO snow? Obviously, I am a novice and request everyone's patience while I learn.
Thank you in advance.
It all depends on the thickness value. In other words, many times along the gulf coast our arctic air is very shallow(mainly at the surface) the air aloft is above freezing and it does not allow the formation of snow. That is it in a nushell.
BlueJay
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Thank you for your reply harpman. I appreciate this understandable explanation.
unome
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Latest Storm Summary from WPC:

storm summary number 06 for mid-atlantic to northeast major winter storm
nws weather prediction center college park md
1000 am est tue jan 27 2015

...high-impact winter storm continues to bring heavy snowfall amounts and blizzard conditions to much of the northeast...

blizzard warnings are in effect for the coastal areas of eastern long island to maine.

winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect for portions of northern and central new jersey and eastern pennsylvania northward into interior new england.

coastal flood advisories are still in effect for most of the northeast coastline.

for a detailed graphical depiction of the latest watches...warnings and advisories...please see http://www.weather.gov

at 900 am est...a surface low pressure center with an estimated pressure of 975 mb...28.79 inches...was centered approximately 85 miles southeast of nantucket ... massachusetts and moving in a north-northeastward direction. an occluded front extended north and eastward out of the low and out into the atlantic ocean. national weather service radar and surface observations indicated that widespread light to moderate snow...with occasional heavy snow...continued to fall from new jersey into much of new england. gusty winds continued to increase across the northeast. sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph...with higher gusts were reported from much of new jersey northeastward to near boston. sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph...with gusts of 50 to 60 mph...were reported at marthas vineyard and nantucket. farther south and west...scattered areas of light to occasionally moderate snow were reported across western new york state and southward to the central/northern mid-atlantic states.

...selected storm total snowfall in inches from 1100 pm est sun jan 25 through 900 am est tue jan 27...

...connecticut...
baltic 20.5
killingly 20.0
norwich 16.0
old saybrook 15.5
berlin 2.4 sse 14.2
tolland 14.0
marlborough 13.8
moosup 1.7 ne 13.0
north guilford 13.0
manchester 12.5
staffordville 0.4 nnw 11.5
new haven 7.0
west hartford 2.0

...washington dc...
washington 1.1

...delaware...
newark 3.9 ssw 1.6
dover 1.1 nne 1.0

...massachusetts...
shrewsbury 26.2
worcester 25.0
littleton 23.5
chelmsford 22.5
burlington 19.5
falmouth 19.0
methuen 19.0
east freetown 18.5
harwich 18.0
new bedford 18.0
sandwich 18.0
south plymouth 18.0
berlin 1.3 wsw 16.0
salem 9.0
taunton 7.0

...maryland...
cascade 6.0
mc henry 5 sse 6.0
oakland 5.0
germantown 4.5
eckhart mines 4.0
point of rocks 3.5
westminster 2 se 3.5
hagerstown 1 e 3.0
frederick 3 nw 2.8
silver spring 5.7 nw 2.8
gaithersburg 3.1 ne 2.7
columbia 2.3 n 2.5

...maine...
portland 1 w 14.8
yarmouth 12.5
rockport 2.8 sw 11.0
rockport 3 sw 11.0
lewiston 2 e 10.5
westport island 2.2 ssw 9.5
gray nws office 9.4

...new hampshire...
windham 22.1
hudson 21.5
west hampstead 3 wsw 21.0
salem 1.7 nne 16.2
dover 0.8 e 12.5
exeter 1.5 e 12.5

...new jersey...
north bergen 8.1
berkeley twp 8.0
howell twp 8.0
harrison 0.3 n 7.2
long branch 0.5 w 7.0
pennington 0.6 ene 7.0
ocean twp 0.8 se 6.3
newark airport 6.0
toms river twp 2.8 sse 5.5
cheesequake 5.0
trenton 4.0

...new york...
mattituck 24.8
medord 22.3
islip airport 20.9
north babylon 18.0
plainview 17.0
massapequa 14.2
carle place 13.1
seaford 12.7
nyc/la guardia 11.0
rocky point 2.0 n 11.0
central park 5.5

...pennsylvania...
windber country club 14.0
quiggleville 10.0
saint marys 10.0
roaring spring 9.5
laurel summit 8.5
moon township 7.5
schellsburg 2.6 wnw 7.5
evans city 7.3
cabot 7.0
canonsburg 7.0
state college 2.4 ene 4.0
northeast philadelphia 2.5

...rhode island...
burrillville 19.5
west glocester 16.6
west glocester 3.4 se 16.6
charlestown 15.0
portsmouth 15.0
cranston 4.1 e 13.0
greenville 0.7 nnw 12.5
coventry 7.0
north kingstown 7.0
wakefield 7.0
west warwick 6.0
providence 5.0
westerly 5.0

...virginia...
fairfax 4.3
winchester 2 s 3.5
chester gap 3.0
cedar hill 3 nnw 2.5

...selected peak wind gusts in miles per hour earlier in the event...

...massachusetts...
nantucket 78
edgartown 61
nantucket memorial arpt 61
yarmouth 61
oak bluffs 60
provincetown muni arpt 59
fairhaven 58
vineyard haven 58
barnstable 53
chatham muni arpt 52
scituate 52
plymouth muni arpt 49

...new hampshire...
mount washington 78

...rhode island...
block island muni arpt 53
middletown 50

...selected storm total snowfall in inches where the event has ended...

...ohio...
galion 8.0
mansfield/ontario 8.0
bowerston 7.0
mineral city 7.0
dalton 6.5
lexington 1 nw 6.5
ashland 4 sw 6.0
calcutta 6.0
glasgow 6.0
quaker city 5.3
bellefontaine 2 n 5.0
richmond 5.0
steubenville 5.0
bellevue 1 n 4.3
barnesville 4.0

...tennessee...
gatlinburg 6 se 4.5
newfound gap 1 n 4.3

...west virginia...
terra alta 1 ne 7.0
chester 5.0
mount storm 5.0
burlington 4.0
canaan heights 4.0
kline gap 2 ese 4.0
weirton 4.0
falling waters 2 nw 3.8
inwood 3.8
martinsburg 2 e 3.5
falling waters 3.0
mozart 3.0
follansbee 2.5

...selected storm total freezing rain in inches where the event has ended...

...west virginia...
flat top 0.38


the surface low off the new england coast is forecast to continue moving northeastward along the new england coastline on tuesday and into nova scotia by wednesday. high winds and heavy snow will continue throughout the day on tuesday for much of the northeast. this heavy snowfall combined with sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph...with gusts in excess of 50 mph...may create life-threatening whiteout or blizzard conditions with concerns for power outages and severe impact to road and air travel. along the immediate coastline...hurricane force wind gusts will be possible as well as coastal flooding and beach erosion. an additional 8 to 15 inches...with locally higher amounts...of snow is expected for eastern new england today...while lesser amounts generally up to 6 inches is still possible for portions of new jersey and eastern new york state. the snow and strong winds across new england and the northeast are expected to persist throughout the day today before slowing tapering off from south to north overnight tonight and into wednesday morning.

the next storm summary will be issued by the weather prediction center at 400 pm est. please refer to your local national weather service office for additional information on this event.

santorelli

last updated: 1007 am est tue jan 27 2015
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brooksgarner
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While southern New England is getting it pretty good with a typical "heavy" snowfall (I've seen worse), but atypical winds -- it was a dud for New York and New Jersey. The wind was so bad, it's blown much of the snow away into piles and drifts... The forecast was NYC (up to 2 feet," if you recall) was so off (they only got around 6"-8") and travel was by car was absolutely easy for locals, a NWS forecaster actually apologized for the bad forecast.

This also calls into question the legitimacy of imposing "travel bans" based on a weather forecast, instead of observation of actual conditions. (Same applies to cancelling school before the first flake flies.) Of course, when I lived there for 20 years -- thru many blizzards -- there were never travel bans. (There was a concept known as personal responsibility.)
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Ptarmigan
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brooksgarner wrote:While southern New England is getting it pretty good with a typical "heavy" snowfall (I've seen worse), but atypical winds -- it was a dud for New York and New Jersey. The wind was so bad, it's blown much of the snow away into piles and drifts... The forecast was NYC (up to 2 feet," if you recall) was so off (they only got around 6"-8") and travel was by car was absolutely easy for locals, a NWS forecaster actually apologized for the bad forecast.

This also calls into question the legitimacy of imposing "travel bans" based on a weather forecast, instead of observation of actual conditions. (Same applies to cancelling school before the first flake flies.) Of course, when I lived there for 20 years -- thru many blizzards -- there were never travel bans. (There was a concept known as personal responsibility.)
First time I have heard travel ban imposed for a blizzard. There have been much worse blizzards like in 1888 and 1978.
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jasons2k
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The bans weren't done just to 'protect the citizens of New York'. It was a political ploy by the Governor and Mayor of New York. I won't get into the details as there are other forums and websites for this...but there is more to the story if you do some research.

And yes there used to be a concept of personal responsibility. Some parts of the country have forgotten what that means. They need the Mayor to give them permission to walk on an icy sidewalk to go buy eggs....a Mayor who would probably fail a sixth grade earth science quiz on the water cycle.
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