January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

[srainhoutx]

For those that have been following the longer range computer models as we end January, the 12Z GFS has been insistent in developing a significant winter storm across our Region. While it is too soon to know with any certainty what are sensible weather will be beyond 3 to 5 days, we will monitor the computer guidance to see if they are 'sniffing out' a stronger shot of colder air with precipitation than we are currently experiencing as we get a bit closer to the end of the month of January.

01222015 12Z GFS gfs_namer_234_500_vort_ht.gif

01222015 12Z GFS gfs_namer_222_10m_wnd_precip.gif

[Portastorm]

The European computer model for the last several cycles has also been suggesting this type of setup at the 8-10 day range.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1215 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

HARRIS TX-MATAGORDA TX-GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
1215 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 1211 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED PERSISTENT MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR ESTIMATES AND GAGES INDICATE 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS. ANOTHER LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THIS SHOULD NOT POSE A WIDESPREAD FLOOD
THREAT...HOWEVER RUNOFF MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING AT
THE USUAL SUCEPTIBLE SPOTS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...TEXAS
CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...ALVIN...ANGLETON...
DICKINSON...BAY CITY...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...SEABROOK...WEBSTER...
HITCHCOCK...MANVEL...WEST COLUMBIA AND SWEENY.

[kayci]

It's coming down hard here in Alvin! The pond behind my shop is now overflowing it's banks!!!

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Warning issued for SE Harris/Galveston and Central Brazoria Counties until 3:00 PM.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/22/15 1940Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: G-13 1915Z HEEPS
.
LOCATION...SW LOUISIANA...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MOD/HVY RAINFALL ALONG TX/LA COAST
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BROAD TROF AXIS DIVING SEWRD INTO
MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED UL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM HAS HELPED DEVELOP BROAD
SHIELD OF CONVECTION ACROSS E/SE TX. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION/HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TX COASTLINE WHERE COASTAL FRONT HAS SET-UP
AND GULF MOISTURE HAS POOLED TO THE SE OF THIS BOUNDARY. BLENDED TPW
VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BTWN 1.5-1.75" AND KCRP PW OBS CAME IN AT 1.72"
WHICH IS ABOVE 2 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF YR. SFC LOW CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF KLBX ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST COLD
CLOUD-TOP ENHANCEMENT. 850 MB WINDS AS PER VWP DATA ARE SOUTHERLY
FARTHER INLAND INTO E CNTL TX/LA, INDICATIVE OF 850 MB FRONT A LITTLE
FURTHER N AND W. STRONGEST SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINS ALONG SHORELINE BUT MOD RAINS PERSIST INLAND WITH THE 850
MB FRONT. THIS HAS BEEN EVIDENCED BY PRECIP TOTALS FROM 2-3" ACROSS
MATAGORDA/BRAZORIA/GALVESTON COUNTIES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1945Z-2245Z... HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS SW IMPULSE MOVES TO THE E, THIS WILL PUSH
DOWNSTREAM PRECIP FURTHER INTO LA. HEAVY RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN 1"/HR
RATES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG UPPER TX COAST AND INTO
SW LA WITH MORE MOD INTENSITY RAINS ELSEWHERE. ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX/SW LA COAST WITH THE STRONGEST
SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE LIMITED CAPE VALUES IN AREA AS
NOTED BY MOST RECENT WPC MPD.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
148 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

LIBERTY TX-CHAMBERS TX-GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-
148 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 144 PM CST...PERSISTENT RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL GET
HEAVIER AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST. RAINFALL RATES UP TO
1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE GROUND BECOMING
SATURATED...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO RUNOFF AND
COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON ISLAND EAST END...TEXAS
CITY...LAKE JACKSON...ANGLETON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...FREEPORT...
CLUTE...HITCHCOCK...BEACH CITY...SOUTHEASTERN MONT BELVIEU...
RICHWOOD...ANAHUAC...JONES CREEK...BAYOU VISTA...OYSTER CREEK...
JAMAICA BEACH...TIKI ISLAND AND COVE.

[srainhoutx]

Sleet reported a bit ago in Sonora.

[srainhoutx]

The Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs as well as temperature and rainfall projections continue to advertise a fairly robust cooling trend as we end January and begin February. I was speaking to Mario Gomez a bit ago and he also mentioned some concern about the polar vortex dropping into SE Canada and some impressive temperature departs across the Plains in the longer range. Something to monitor as we end the month of January and begin our climatologically peak period for Winter Weather events across Texas. It appears that the sub tropical jet will remain rather noisy with disturbances riding NE across Mexico and Texas after the 'colder' air arrives. We will see.

01222015 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif

01222015 CPC Temps 814temp_new.gif

10222015 CPC Precip 814prcp_new.gif

[BlueJay]

Good luck on your up coming journey Belmer! Enjoy yourself and hurry home-back to Texas.

[jasons2k]

Only .53" here. Quite a bit less than forecast/expected, at least here in South Montgomery.

[jeff]

5.24 recorded down in Brazoria County on the Brazos River at SH 35...

[Katdaddy]

Upper level low to push E across TX today bringing an end to light rain across S, S Central, and SE TX later this afternoon and evening. Perhaps some clearing skies by dusk. Saturday will be the beginning of a very nice stretch of sunny and mild weather lasting through Thursday of next week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Fairly impressive coastal low that affected the region yesterday is now moving east with the main upper trough approaching from the west.

A very wet day across the region on Thursday with rainfall totals along the coast ranging from 3-5 inches and 2-2.5 inches over our northern counties. Period of strong surface winds from late morning to late afternoon with gust to near 50mph along the coast.

Main upper level trough is approaching from SW TX this morning where light rain is changing over to light snow. Rainfall coverage has been increasing over SE TX as lift increases ahead of this feature. Temperatures in the low 40’s over the region, but profile remain warm enough to preclude any threat of snow or sleet. Rain chances should begin to subside by early afternoon as the trough axis passes overhead.

Stretch of very nice weather is in store for the region Saturday-Thursday as the upper pattern takes on a trough in the eastern US and ridge of high pressure over the SW US. Skies will clear tonight leading to a sunny and mild weekend with temperatures in the 40’s for lows and the 60’s for highs. Ridging and sunny skies next week will lead to a gradual warm up with highs breaking 70 by Tuesday and lows warming to near 50 by Thursday.

Next cold front and SW US storm system expected to affect the region starting next Friday. Will need to keep an eye on just how much cold air may come southward with this storm as some of the models have been suggesting the potential for winter weather over a good part of TX next weekend.

Selected Thursday Rainfall Totals:

Hobby Airport: 2.35 (new record for 1-22). Previous record was 1.95 in 198
Galveston: 3.09
College Station: 2.97
Brazos River at West Columbia: 5.08
Bay City: 5.13
Alvin: 3.60
Caldwell: 3.68
Texas City: 4.96
Port Bolivar: 3.20
La Marque: 3.15
Angleton: 2.83
Palacios: 2.72
Friendswood: 2.48
Caldwell: 2.91
League City: 2.06
Navasota: 2.08
Sugar Land: 1.18
Victoria: 1.08
Tomball: 1.00
BUSH IAH: .87
Wharton: .39

[srainhoutx]

The only reports I see of any winter precipitation this morning is across the Edwards Plateau and mostly in Kerr County where some light snow has been falling. Little in the way of accumulation with most of it happening on elevated and metal surfaces.

Edit: Some reports coming in now across Travis Count of light rain/snow mix

01232015 14Z TX WV latest.jpg

01232015 14Z TX VIS latest.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Reports of sleet/rain and snow mix 4 miles West of Fredericksburg in Gillespie County. Also large snow flakes reported in Kerrville at this time. No accumulation though.

[srainhoutx]

All snow falling in Harper...Gillespie County at this time.

[srainhoutx]

Report: 19 miles E of Rocksprings in Real County...2 inches of snow on the ground. Slushy roads in this area of the Edwards Plateau.

[texoz]

Kind of wacky precip going on in C. Texas. Temps in the area are colder than temps around Dallas/Ft. Worth. Perhaps the low is pulling down colder air due south from Panhandle while DFW area hasn't felt that influence?

[jasons2k]

Kind of wacky precip going on in C. Texas. Temps in the area are colder than temps around Dallas/Ft. Worth. Perhaps the low is pulling down colder air due south from Panhandle while DFW area hasn't felt that influence?

Precip is probably helping transport colder air from the core of the ULL to the surface...