January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

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Belmer
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Ptarmigan wrote:Looks to be a rainy one. January can be wet, like in 1891 or 1991.

You create your own precipitation type by moving around wet bulb and air temperature. You can get snow, sleet, or just rain.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/wxfest/PcpnType/pcpn.html

This is so cool! How have I not come across this yet? Thanks for posting!
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By the way, has anyone seen the last two runs of the GFS?
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Belmer
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harpman wrote:By the way, has anyone seen the last two runs of the GFS?

I'm assuming you're referencing what it's showing out in "la-la" land with snow and sleet all the way down to the gulf coast first part of February? Looks like an interesting pattern is setting up in the longer range via the Euro and GFS. How it actually evolves and unfolds is another.
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Hello KHOU Weather Board,

I've been an active member for quite sometime now. I don't get to post as much as I'd like, but I'm on here probably 5 times out of the week checking what you all have to say. It's the only part of "home" I get up here in Oklahoma. As some of you may all know from when I posted in the past, I'm wrapping up my junior year here in the meteorology program at OU and one more year of this crazy program before who knows what has in store for me. Although it's been a long time since I've posted, I iust wanted to say it's amazing to see how far this community has grown since before I was a member. It sure is moving in the right direction with all the help over the years.
I leave in a couple weeks to head to Melbourne, Australia to do a semester of study abroad at Monash University and won't be back in the US until early July. For those who are winter lovers, hang on tight. I know its been a grey winter so far, but often times, February can produce the most exciting weather around these neck of the woods.

Latest data says don't rule out a sleet pellot or two possibly near the Huntsville area with the 540 line down in that area and wrap around moisture left from this storm as it moved eastward.
Looks like I'll be seeing my last snowfall here in Norman until next winter (assuming we get snow tonight. Might just be a cold rain).

Nonetheless, best wishes to everyone and hope to be more active and contribute more on here upon my return.
Good night, mate! :D
Blake
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Rain has transitioned to snow near San Angelo this morning around 3:00 AM and may cause some ptype issues N and W of the Metroplex. The Coastal low/trough is beginning to organize along the Lower Texas Coast at this hour. Rain with embedded elevated storms should increase today along and N of the surface boundary. QPF is still suggesting 2+ inches of rainfall across SE Texas into Louisiana today into tonight before the surface low shifts E. The cold core upper trough shifts E on Friday and should end our precipitation chances. The longer range guidance continues to advertise a significant winter storm across our Region as we end January and begin February.
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Morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong storm system approaching the area this morning.

Radar shows widespread shower and even a few thunderstorms ongoing over central into SE TX this morning with the main bulk of the activity along I-35. Strong upper air forcing is spreading into SE TX from the west and expect the activity along I-35 will expand ESE into SE TX over the next few hours as suggested by the short term HRRR model. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity from roughly 900am to about 300pm. Scattered showers will linger into the late evening hours and possibly into a good part of Friday.

Will maintain rainfall forecast of widespread 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3 inches since moisture levels are very high for this time of year. Given a little more convective activity out to the west this morning, short term rainfall rates may be a little higher than thought and could be enough for some ponding on roadways and low lying areas today.

Winds will be the other story with gusts already up to 29mph at Hobby Airport and the buoy 60nm south of Freeport gusting up to 25kts. Will see winds increase even more this afternoon and evening with sustained values of 20-30mph along the coast and gust to 40mph over the waters. Wind direction is slightly more ESE than ENE or NE which is not as favorable for a tidal increase. Still expect strong winds today to pile some water on the coast and will have to monitor coastal water levels to see just how high they might go. Think any concerns will be from Galveston Island up the coast toward Sabine Pass.

Upper trough crosses the area late Friday with light rainfall ending and clearing skies. Cool but dry and sunny for the weekend with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s. Gradual but sustained warming trend into next week with highs above 70 by Wednesday.
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Belmer wrote:
harpman wrote:By the way, has anyone seen the last two runs of the GFS?

I'm assuming you're referencing what it's showing out in "la-la" land with snow and sleet all the way down to the gulf coast first part of February? Looks like an interesting pattern is setting up in the longer range via the Euro and GFS. How it actually evolves and unfolds is another.
Hey, we haven't had much fun to talk about this winter, so I thought I would point it out.....
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srainhoutx
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

GUADALUPE-HAYS-KENDALL-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-CALDWELL-BLANCO-BEXAR-COMAL-
703 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY...
COMAL COUNTY...
EAST CENTRAL KENDALL COUNTY...
HAYS COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN BLANCO COUNTY...
TRAVIS COUNTY...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 658 AM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND ROAD OFFICIALS ARE
REPORTING MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
SEVERAL ROAD WEBSITES INDICATE THAT LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE
BEGINNING TO FLOOD AS MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY RAIN MOVES
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. RAIN GAUGES HAVE REPORTED
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SPOTS OVER 2 INCHES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING RAINFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR
WHICH WILL LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANDERSON MILL...AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...CANYON LAKE
DAM...CEDAR PARK...DRIPPING SPRINGS...GEORGETOWN...NEW BRAUNFELS...
PFLUGERVILLE AND ROUND ROCK.
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Getting reports of rain and snow mix in Denton.
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From TXDot 20 miles S of Dumas on US 287...
01222015 828 AM  Dumas 287 287%20-20%20Mi_%20S%20of%20Dumas_AMA.jpg
01222015 828 AM Dumas 287 287%20-20%20Mi_%20S%20of%20Dumas_AMA.jpg (13.89 KiB) Viewed 4587 times
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A live shot of Kachina Peak at Ski Taos. They are going to have some real avalanche issues up at 12,400 feet to take care very soon.
01222015 Katchina Peak 732AM kachina.jpg
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Belmer
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harpman wrote:
Belmer wrote:
harpman wrote:By the way, has anyone seen the last two runs of the GFS?

I'm assuming you're referencing what it's showing out in "la-la" land with snow and sleet all the way down to the gulf coast first part of February? Looks like an interesting pattern is setting up in the longer range via the Euro and GFS. How it actually evolves and unfolds is another.
Hey, we haven't had much fun to talk about this winter, so I thought I would point it out.....
Yeah, hopefully it pans out. Honestly, GFS long range hasn't been all too terribly bad this winter. It's been good at showing the cold and moisture in the long range, just the placement of where it sets up is always the problem.
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srainhoutx wrote:The longer range guidance continues to advertise a significant winter storm across our Region as we end January and begin February.
Does that mean possibly snow in our area?
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Belmer wrote:Hello KHOU Weather Board,

I've been an active member for quite sometime now. I don't get to post as much as I'd like, but I'm on here probably 5 times out of the week checking what you all have to say. It's the only part of "home" I get up here in Oklahoma. As some of you may all know from when I posted in the past, I'm wrapping up my junior year here in the meteorology program at OU and one more year of this crazy program before who knows what has in store for me. Although it's been a long time since I've posted, I iust wanted to say it's amazing to see how far this community has grown since before I was a member. It sure is moving in the right direction with all the help over the years.
I leave in a couple weeks to head to Melbourne, Australia to do a semester of study abroad at Monash University and won't be back in the US until early July. For those who are winter lovers, hang on tight. I know its been a grey winter so far, but often times, February can produce the most exciting weather around these neck of the woods.

Latest data says don't rule out a sleet pellot or two possibly near the Huntsville area with the 540 line down in that area and wrap around moisture left from this storm as it moved eastward.
Looks like I'll be seeing my last snowfall here in Norman until next winter (assuming we get snow tonight. Might just be a cold rain).

Nonetheless, best wishes to everyone and hope to be more active and contribute more on here upon my return.
Good night, mate! :D
This is awesome news Belmer. The tradition of our young people that have 'grown up' on the KHOU Weather Board going on to become Professional Meteorologists continues. We are so proud of ALL of you that are pursuing your dream to become Professional Meteorologists! :mrgreen:
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Let's wait until next week sambucol before we get too excited about any potential wintry mischief around SE Texas in early February. We all know the global models are really not reliable with 'finer details' beyond 3-5 days out. That said if the upper air pattern projected is correct, we could see a decent shout of very chilly air dropping S from Canada. The computer models are suggesting a cold 1055mb+ Arctic High Pressure settling S, so we will see.
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srainhoutx
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Interesting factoid from NWS San Angelo. San Angelo as received 1.26 rainfall this year to date. They did not hit that mark until May 23rd, 2014. Also Abilene as received 1.42 inches of rain this year to date. Abilene did not hit that mark until April 19th in 2014. This weak/neutral El Nino pattern has been beneficial for a lot of Texas that has been very dry.
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Stuck in this sliver of no rain...what are the odds?
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Midland and Odessa has switched to all snow at this hour.
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Light to moderate rain continues here in Austin ... started raining around 6 p.m. last night. So far, a little more than 2" in the ol' rain bucket in SW Austin. Radar continues to show more rain coming. Fortunately some of this rain also fell in the Hill Country. Boy do we need it!
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srainhoutx wrote:Midland and Odessa has switched to all snow at this hour.
And that's ahead of the model-forecasted 540 line... granted they're at a bit of elevation, but it makes you wonder about our Houston snow chance tomorrow... it'll be in the 40s, but with cold air aloft I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a few flakes up around Huntsville (TX) thru the morning.

Roughly "now" forecast by GFS ... (forecast for an hour and a half from now) 540 line just north of Midland...
gfs_op_apcp_f06_us.png
GFS forecast for tomorrow morning... if we have precip, it could mix with a few flakes well north of Houston.
gfs_op_apcp_f36_us.png
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