January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

[Ptarmigan]

More of the same it looks like. A rollercoaster with warmer days mixed in between cold fronts.
Nothing crazy on the horizon, but models can't be trusted after 5-7 days. Stay tuned

I remember freezes in late January last year. There was also freezing rain.

[Katdaddy]

A chilly foggy morning across SE TX with temps running in the 40s. Slight rain chances are back for Tuesday and Wednesday followed by mostly sunny skies and a slow warming trend through next weekend. Highs will be in the low 60s Saturday to near 70F Sunday.

[djmike]

Is it just me or does it seem this winter is warmer than usual? Cold shots here and there, but rebounds quickly back to 60s and 70s for a while.

[Texaspirate11]

Is it just me or does it seem this winter is warmer than usual? Cold shots here and there, but rebounds quickly back to 60s and 70s for a while.

This is one of the coldest January's. I dont know where you're getting 70's?

[BlueJay]

Winter is not over.
Stay tuned.

[snowman65]

I know they predicted a much wetter and much colder than normal winter for this region. I agree with the wetter part for sure but actually we may not have any wintry weather this year at all. We have had at least SOME sort of frozen precip the last 2-3 years, even if short lived but nothing even close this year.....js

[jasons2k]

We don't have to have frozen precip to have below normal temps. NWS HGX issued a climate statement over the weekend with a summary that this one the coldest/below-normal starts to the new year on record.

This is typical for El Nino. Cold, but not record-shattering bitter cold. Winter weather (precip) threats tend to be marginal where a few degrees make all the difference.

On another note, I have virtually no freeze damage from last week. Maybe it was the constant moisture, but for example my Florida Gardenia, which normally fries and goes limp at exactly 32 degrees (or any frost), is still green and perky with white flower buds on it. Odd.......

[brooksgarner]

Of interest, last March Houston saw WILD swings in temperature from the 30s to the 80s. That month we also saw our last bout of freezing rain and sleet: on March 4th, 2014. So -- while things seem marginal to warmer now (for winter weather potential), we still have long way to go this winter.
(The low that day was 31, high 38, with -ZR/-IP recorded for a time around SETX.)

[walterh2k]

We don't have to have frozen precip to have below normal temps. NWS HGX issued a climate statement over the weekend with a summary that this one the coldest/below-normal starts to the new year on record.

This is typical for El Nino. Cold, but not record-shattering bitter cold. Winter weather (precip) threats tend to be marginal where a few degrees make all the difference.

On another note, I have virtually no freeze damage from last week. Maybe it was the constant moisture, but for example my Florida Gardenia, which normally fries and goes limp at exactly 32 degrees (or any frost), is still green and perky with white flower buds on it. Odd.......

The same thing happened to my Philodendron. No freeze damage. I covered it but the wind blew the cover off.

[Ptarmigan]

We don't have to have frozen precip to have below normal temps. NWS HGX issued a climate statement over the weekend with a summary that this one the coldest/below-normal starts to the new year on record.

This is typical for El Nino. Cold, but not record-shattering bitter cold. Winter weather (precip) threats tend to be marginal where a few degrees make all the difference.

On another note, I have virtually no freeze damage from last week. Maybe it was the constant moisture, but for example my Florida Gardenia, which normally fries and goes limp at exactly 32 degrees (or any frost), is still green and perky with white flower buds on it. Odd.......

The last time it was this cold was in 2009-2010 and that was very cold. I notice most of those cold start to new years usually occur during El Nino in which the previous winter was La Nina.

El Nino Winters Years That Started La Nina And Ended El Nino
1911-1912
1976-1977
2009-2010

One of the coldest start to new years was a La Nina Winter, 2000-2001.

[Andrew]

For those of you looking for warmer weather across the area, temperatures should begin to rebound late this weekend as a more zonal upper air flow takes shape across much of the central US. Until then, expect similar temperatures to today with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s. Some models indicate that parts of SE Texas could see a minor freeze come Friday morning, but more on that later.

[Katdaddy]

Another cold and dreary day across much of TX as Winter continues. A weak disturbance is pushing across Central and SE TX this morning bringing a cold light rain. An additional round of cold rain is possible again tonight and Wednesday with additional disturbances. Thursday looks to be the turning point toward sun and a warming trend. The warming trend continues through the weekend but clouds and rain low chances look to begin next Sunday and Monday.

[srainhoutx]

Greetings from Northern New Mexico. Currently here about 20 miles N of Santa Fe we have light snow falling, but it is not more than a 'mood snow' at 6000 ft. The light snow showers started just as my fight arrived into Santa Fe early yesterday afternoon. Tomorrow morning I'll drive up to Taos Ski Valley where a bit heavier snow is expected today and particularly tonight as the storm system to the NW wraps up into a closed 500/700mb upper low and taps some moisture streaming in from the Eastern Pacific. We have Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories issued for a lot of New Mexico and the Mountains above 7500 ft are expecting anywhere between a foot to a couple of feet of snow from this storm system.



Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cloudy and cold conditions will continue for the next 24 hours…

BUSH IAH has not reached 50 degrees for a high temperatures since January 7th. In fact the first 12 days of January 2015 show a monthly average temperature of 44 degrees or 8.6 degrees below normal and ranks as the 8th coldest 1-1 to 1-12 period on record. Rainfall has been above average with 2.22 inches recorded thus far in 2015 or .96 of an inch above normal. Of the last 12 days only 2 of those days have recorded highs above 60 degrees (6-7).

Another cloudy cold and at times wet day on tap for today as another cold front moved off the coast last night an SW flow aloft continues allowing disturbances to cross the region. One such disturbance is moving across the region currently with a band of light rain in progress mainly along and south of US 59. Expect this rainfall to come to an end this morning with cloudy skies remaining in place through the day as moisture is trapped below the frontal inversion. Expect highs to struggle to reach 50 degrees with continued cold air advection and clouds today.

Another disturbance moves across the area early Wednesday morning with another chance of light rain and drizzle. Not expecting much more than .10 to .25 of an inch of rainfall. Temperatures will remain safely above freezing so no concerns with freezing or frozen precipitation either. Clouds look hard to clear Wednesday afternoon yet again and another cloud, cold, and at time wet day is in store with high temperatures around 50 degrees.

Subsidence behind the disturbance on Wednesday should finally allow cloud cover to break Thursday morning and a partly cloudy to mostly sunny day both Thursday and Friday. This will result in high temperatures warming into the 60’s for the first time in over week.

Clear conditions looks short lived however as the active southern stream jet remains in place and the next upper air system begins to approach over the weekend. Expect clouds to increase Saturday afternoon with rain chances returning Sunday afternoon into Monday. Southerly winds should help to moderate temperatures over the weekend with lows in the 40/50’s and highs in the 60’s.

[Portastorm]

Is this guy (srainhoutx) amazing or what?! Still posting weather updates from his vacation spot.

Only thing of interest I see in the models besides a slight warmup later this week ... the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro show a significant winter storm impacting Texas in about 10 days. The "wintry" precip would be in west Texas and the Panhandle primarily with cold rain east of there. Looks like one of those cold trough type storms with no connection to the polar jet. Something we have seen a lot of already. But again, this is 10 days out ... who knows.

[tireman4]

Keep tuned right here for the Winter of 2015. Surprises afoot? Who knows. Yeah, Steve rocks. Still making his forecasts while on vacation.

[Andrew]

Is this guy (srainhoutx) amazing or what?! Still posting weather updates from his vacation spot.

Only thing of interest I see in the models besides a slight warmup later this week ... the 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro show a significant winter storm impacting Texas in about 10 days. The "wintry" precip would be in west Texas and the Panhandle primarily with cold rain east of there. Looks like one of those cold trough type storms with no connection to the polar jet. Something we have seen a lot of already. But again, this is 10 days out ... who knows.

Yea most of those models (Euro in particular) keep the winter event rather shallow and weak. Euro shows it barely making it to SE Texas with most of the progressed colder air in west Texas. Fortunately this is still 10+ days out and I suspect handling of this system is still in question...

[wxman57]

Besides some light snow in the panhandle tomorrow, the Euro has no winter weather for Texas through the next 10 days. 12z GFS is similar. At least Saturday doesn't look too bad - sunny with highs in the 60s for a change. Possibly a bit warmer by next Tuesday - upper 60s in both the Euro and GFS.

[jasons2k]

The NWS has another update on their site about the climate. 9th coldest 12/18 - 1/12 period on record. Brrrrrr. I'm ready for some sun!

[BlueJay]

Yes! What jasons said.

[Katdaddy]

Another day of clouds and temps in the 40s with increasing rain chances this afternoon and evening. Rain chances will come to an end tomorrow morning as the low clouds move E allowing for some sun and high clouds during the afternoon leading to highs in the 50s. Today will make 7 days with high temps not reaching above 40F. The 50s and 60s under partly sunny skies tomorrow through Sunday will feel like Spring.