More cold air on the way next week!?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
sleetstorm
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:33 pm
Contact:

I have a feeling that today's forecast high may end up being several degrees too warm, particularly if cloud cover stays much longer over southeast Texas than previously forecast.
User avatar
Portastorm
Posts: 800
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

We're seeing a lot of cold air advection here in AUS. Temps and dew points have been dropping steadily since 6 a.m. Down to 36 degrees now downtown.
User avatar
wxman57
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote:
I'm going to "pick your brain" for a moment wxman57. ;) I am seeing some signals that are rather unusual for the next couple of weeks in SE TX and the areas E of the Rockies. Do you feel that the much discussed MMW/SSW as well as severely negative AO, NAO, +PNA and -EPO episodes we are are experiencing along with a severe blocking regime spell much below average temps and a stormier period ahead for us? You know I and other members follow long range forecasting and would be interested in hearing your thoughts regardless of how painful it may be for those longing for Spring like many of us including yourself.
All those factors you mentioned do point to continued cold and stormy across the U.S. for the next 2-4 weeks (at least). The ECMWF is predicting a very cold period for the rest of February (east of Rockies). While we typically begin to see signs of spring by the 3rd week of February, that may be delayed this year until the 2nd week of March. Certainly can't rule out another winter weather event here based on what I'm seeing, even into late February or early March. I see no light at the end of the tunnel for those, like me, anxious for spring sunshine and warmth...
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

wxman57 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
I'm going to "pick your brain" for a moment wxman57. ;) I am seeing some signals that are rather unusual for the next couple of weeks in SE TX and the areas E of the Rockies. Do you feel that the much discussed MMW/SSW as well as severely negative AO, NAO, +PNA and -EPO episodes we are are experiencing along with a severe blocking regime spell much below average temps and a stormier period ahead for us? You know I and other members follow long range forecasting and would be interested in hearing your thoughts regardless of how painful it may be for those longing for Spring like many of us including yourself.
All those factors you mentioned do point to continued cold and stormy across the U.S. for the next 2-4 weeks (at least). The ECMWF is predicting a very cold period for the rest of February (east of Rockies). While we typically begin to see signs of spring by the 3rd week of February, that may be delayed this year until the 2nd week of March. Certainly can't rule out another winter weather event here based on what I'm seeing, even into late February or early March. I see no light at the end of the tunnel for those, like me, anxious for spring sunshine and warmth...
Thanks wxman57. I know many folks are very interested in your thoughts and your input is always appreciated! I too am more than ready for Spring, but this winter has been anything but typical and part of the reasoning behind some of my postings have been to point out some patterns that we have not seen in many years for not only SE TX, but across the CONUS. Again, thank you for the response. Meanwhile, the morning e-mail from Jeff...
Another strong storm system will bring snow/sleet/ and rain to the state Wed-early Friday.

Strong cold front that passed through the region yesterday evening is now well into the Gulf of Mexico with strong cold air advection in progress. N winds of 15-30mph will continue this morning as large high pressure cell builds into the state. Upstream temperatures in the upper 20’s over N TX will keep cold conditions in place today, even as skies clear from north to south. Surface low will help drag the cold air mass over the plains southward today into tonight while major snows return to the US east coast. High level cirrus already noted in an arc from Baja toward Austin will become more widespread and thicken as the next storm located off the N CA coast drops SSE toward Baja and then tracks eastward over TX late this week.

Clearing skies tonight will likely result in a light freeze for many locations, although winds will likely remain up some helping to mitigate a free fall. Expect lows in the upper 20’s up north to the lower to mid 30’s down south. Clouds will rapidly increase on Wednesday as the CA system and massive slug of Pacific moisture noted SW of Baja this morning heads for the region. High level cirrus will thicken and lower while mid and low level decks advance into the region from the WSW. Dry low levels will take some time to moisten and this does raise some concern for P-type at precipitation onset.

Expect precipitation to develop along the Rio Grande by late morning as isentropic lift becomes established as mid level moisture surges above the surface cold dome. Forecast soundings over SC TX show a dry low level with wet bulb temperatures supportive of evaporational cooling prior to the onset of low level warm air advection. Feel the air will be dry and cold enough to support sleet/snow with the onset of the precip as far east as I-35 and then a transition over the sleet/rain for our western counties as the precip. moves into our region Wed PM. May see the onset as all sleet and then a changeover to rain by late evening as the low level profile warms. For the metro Houston area…it should start as rain although a few sleet pellets can not be ruled out.

Widespread cold rain on Thursday with temperatures nearly steady in the mid to upper 30’s. Will need to watch Thursday night very closely as core of the upper low moves over the state and forecast sounding become increasingly favorable for P-type transitions to a winter mix over our northern counties. Not sure there will be much moisture left by the time the air column would support sleet/snow…but it may be close north of a line from Austin to Huntsville. Surface temperatures should remain above freezing for the entire duration of the event so anything that does fall as frozen will melt on impact with the ground. Heavier snows will be possible just NW and N of our area and this may cause some travel concerns up I-45 Thursday into Friday.

System should exit east of the area early Friday with the sun returning for at least 24 hours. It will remain cool to cold under continued cold air advection. Next system will be due in late in the weekend and the GFS is trending colder with this event as well. Wetter and colder has been the trend all winter…so will still with that and show increasing clouds over the weekend with highs in the 50’s..some 5-10 degrees below average and then bring rain back late Sunday into Monday. Right now it does not look like P-type will be an issue with this event…but it is over 5 days out.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Take a look at what the storm is doing at the moment via Nesdis...

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
CAZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/09/10 1532Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1515Z
NOAA AMSU:1038Z/1123Z NASA AMSR-E:1001Z/1140Z
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
.
ATTN WFOS...SGX...HNX...LOX...
ATTN RFCS...CNRFC...
.
EVENT...ONE MAIN BAND...SMALLER SECOND BAND FOR HEIGHTEN FF THREAT...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MAIN ENHANCED BAND DOING ITS THING WITH
GENERAL MODERATE TO LOCAL HVY RAIN. A WAVE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED ON THIS
BAND OVER SANTA BARBARA AND THIS COULD HAVE RAMIFICATION FOR SPEED AND
AMOUNTS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTY AND JUST INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THE NEXT 3-8 HRS. DON'T THINK CHANGES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT MAYBE
AN HR OR TWO OF VERY HVY PRECIP COMPARED WITH AN HR OR SO OF JUST MDT TO
HVY MAYBE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FLOOD AND NO FLOOD. IN ANY CASE MOISTURE
VERY COMPACT AND WILL DELIVER THE HVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD WITH
SHWRS BEHIND AS DRY TONGUE TRIES TO COME SE UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW/ VORT
THAT WAS NOW JUST WNW OF SFO BAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SATELLITE RAIN ESTIMATES FOR 6HRS RUNNING
ABOUT 0.5" TO 1.0" WITH MOST OCCURRING IN A 3HR PERIOD.
SEE SATELLITE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC SHORTLY ON THE INTERNET AT ADDRESS BELOW...
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
redneckweather
Posts: 1022
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Just got back from Leakey yesterday. I was completely out of the loop while out there, no t.v. and no cell phone and boy did I enjoy that! I was thinking about the possibility of wintry precip down here later this week but just as I thought, nothing but a bone chilling cold rain as usual. If anyone here wants to see snow, just head north a couple of hours and get into the fun.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

GGEM for Friday...

(click to enlarge)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

While that looks nice if you want snow in southeast texas not buying it though...
txsnowmaker
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:07 pm
Location: SW Houston (Galleria area)
Contact:

Thank you for posting the Canadian model for Friday, srain. Would you mind giving a brief summary of the forecast for the city of Houston based on this model, were it to verify?
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

txsnowmaker wrote:Thank you for posting the Canadian model for Friday, srain. Would you mind giving a brief summary of the forecast for the city of Houston based on this model, were it to verify?

If you will give me the winning numbers to the Lotto! Seriously, there is lack of consistancy with the models regarding the 'finer details'. The GFS says too warm and further S with the Upper Air Feature as well as the Coastal Low/trough. The Canadian wants to get things near the Coast and bring some wrap around moisture behind the low. As wxman57 likes to say or post a picture of, it's like pullling the lever on a slot machine. Most of the time you get nothing. But sometimes (although few) you get all 7's.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information