December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

[unome]

TxDOT ( http://www.txdot.gov/ ) has a great map for highway road conditions

http://www.drivetexas.org/#/7/32.340/-99.500

you can also choose to view cameras, it will zoom in to the area when you select the camera icon, showing all the cameras available for that area

[Ptarmigan]

2014 is ending cold, while 2015 is starting cold. There have been cold starts to the new year like in 1928 and 1979.

[Heat Miser]

Seemed much colder with the less talked about front last weekend. This (arctic outbreak) is really just a cold front to me. Nothing to write home about, especially in the Houston area.

I think there is a general mis-understanding of what is meant by arctic front. It is the source region of the air mass behind the front. This event for SE TX has more modified arctic air with the true arctic air trapped across W TX. Many arctic fronts in SE TX result in exactly what is happening currently outside...temps. in the 40's and cloudy skies.

I understand that. When one says arctic outbreak or arctic front for our area the general consensus is extremely cold weather. There was nothing remotely close to being extreme for our area, temperature wise. This front was hyped to be a significant event for our area when in reality the front before was colder. If what we get in this area from such a major arctic outbreak is modified so much we don't even hit freezing, maybe we should just label it (cold front).

[nuby3]

it was the leading edge of air sourced from the arctic. that's why it's called an arctic front. there is no labeling scale based on temperature like with intensity in the tropics. (wave, depression, tropicalstorm, hurricane) what you have described is the misunderstanding he mentioned, so what we are saying is, if your understanding of what arctic front means is wrong, understand that what arctic front means is that the air is sourced from the arctic. from now on, that's what it means. I never saw any hype about this event, in fact, I had thought all along that temps were too warm among outlets

[brooksgarner]

A note about weather psychology ... Not just answering this one person, but to address the public's perception of "weather forecasters" as a whole...

sigmund_froid_249x298.jpg

'Hype', in my humble opinion, is the wrong word to describe the lead-up to this latest cold air outbreak, and in my opinion it is a term that is used too often when a forecast doesn't turn out as one may have expected -- expectations resultant from personal, conscious or subconscious hopes or dreams.

"Excited at the potential", is a probably a more accurate description of the vibe leading up to this latest cold weather event. Various voices on this forum were correct in pointing out there was an unusual strength to an arctic high pressure cell which ultimately tracked into our region before modifying. Considering our latitude and climatology, we did indeed, experience a piece of the arctic temperatures.*

While some may have been consciously or subconsciously hoping or dreaming for wintry weather in Houston, it was never more than talk and shouldn't serve as a consideration when ultimately judging the accuracy of our forecast... We never called for anything more than, "possible brief icing from Conroe to Huntsville on New Year's Day morning." --And, that talk was days before the event. As we drew closer and saw it would be a few degrees warmer, we stopped all mention of icy travel and explicitly disclaimed that, "it would be a plain rain event -- albeit a cold rain -- with no wintry weather nearby."

The point I'm trying to make is that the impression of 'hype' may have resulted not from an actual forecast mistake, but from one's personal expectations of this weather event from personal experience of "what arctic air feels like", and after being exposed to all the "excited talk". (Arctic air means different things for different parts of the country.)

Perception of a weather event is inherently subjective and can not serve as a conclusive, determining factor in how accurate our forecast was. If you review the forecast verses the outcome (verification), a more accurate picture emerges.

-Brooks

* "Arctic" means something different depending on your elevation, latitude and proximity to the parent air mass. This time, the core of the arctic air set up about 200 miles to the west of Houston, reducing our impact. But, we did catch a taste of the arctic blast before it modified, with temperatures falling some 20°-30 with dew points dipping from the 50s into the 20s and low 30s. In some cases with the rain, we were less than 5° from our own icing event -- so the fears and potential for ice down here was nearly realized. Historically, systems in this family have produced icy weather for our region, in southeast TX.

[srainhoutx]

Excellent post Brooks. Over the years of the history of this Weather Community we do a fairly good job of laying out the potential and also folks need to understand as the years have gone by, our reading and member audience has grown to a rather large geographical area that covers areas from New Mexico, Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas and on E into Louisiana and most of the Gulf Coast. Also being the 4th largest city in the Untied States, many folks travel well beyond our Region to other locales and tend to look to our Weather Community for good and accurate forecast analysis as they journey away and into our Region. We are so very fortunate to have the experience of Pro Mets and very knowledgeable weather enthusiasts that literally have combined decades and even over 100 years of combined experience forecasting or watching weather patterns across our Region. We all can be proud of what the KHOU Regional Weather Forum has become since its inception back in 2001 when it was a little SE Texas centric Weather Board to one that folks have grown to trust to get the 'real scoop' into what the sensible weather may bring across a large area, sometime days before weather events even appear in the 3, 5 to 7 day weather charts.

[nuby3]

to me, the front looks to have been pretty significant, because I don't see any warm temperatures in my forecast for the next 7-10 days.

[brooksgarner]

Excellent post Brooks. Over the years of the history of this Weather Community we do a fairly good job of laying out the potential and also folks need to understand as the years have gone by, our reading and member audience has grown to a rather large geographical area that covers areas from New Mexico, Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas and on E into Louisiana and most of the Gulf Coast. Also being the 4th largest city in the Untied States, many folks travel well beyond our Region to other locales and tend to look to our Weather Community for good and accurate forecast analysis as they journey away and into our Region. We are so very fortunate to have the experience of Pro Mets and very knowledgeable weather enthusiasts that literally have combined decades and even over 100 years of combined experience forecasting or watching weather patterns across our Region. We all can be proud of what the KHOU Regional Weather Forum has become since its inception back in 2001 when it was a little SE Texas centric Weather Board to one that folks have grown to trust to get the 'real scoop' into what the sensible weather may bring across a large area, sometime days before weather events even appear in the 3, 5 to 7 day weather charts.

Thanks much! The success of your forum speaks for itself, when seeing it grow from local to national in scope. Very cool!

[Ptarmigan]

A note about weather psychology ... Not just answering this one person, but to address the public's perception of "weather forecasters" as a whole...

sigmund_froid_249x298.jpg

'Hype', in my humble opinion, is the wrong word to describe the lead-up to this latest cold air outbreak, and in my opinion it is a term that is used too often when a forecast doesn't turn out as one may have expected -- expectations resultant from personal, conscious or subconscious hopes or dreams.

"Excited at the potential", is a probably a more accurate description of the vibe leading up to this latest cold weather event. Various voices on this forum were correct in pointing out there was an unusual strength to an arctic high pressure cell which ultimately tracked into our region before modifying. Considering our latitude and climatology, we did indeed, experience a piece of the arctic temperatures.*

While some may have been consciously or subconsciously hoping or dreaming for wintry weather in Houston, it was never more than talk and shouldn't serve as a consideration when ultimately judging the accuracy of our forecast... We never called for anything more than, "possible brief icing from Conroe to Huntsville on New Year's Day morning." --And, that talk was days before the event. As we drew closer and saw it would be a few degrees warmer, we stopped all mention of icy travel and explicitly disclaimed that, "it would be a plain rain event -- albeit a cold rain -- with no wintry weather nearby."

The point I'm trying to make is that the impression of 'hype' may have resulted not from an actual forecast mistake, but from one's personal expectations of this weather event from personal experience of "what arctic air feels like", and after being exposed to all the "excited talk". (Arctic air means different things for different parts of the country.)

Perception of a weather event is inherently subjective and can not serve as a conclusive, determining factor in how accurate our forecast was. If you review the forecast verses the outcome (verification), a more accurate picture emerges.

-Brooks

* "Arctic" means something different depending on your elevation, latitude and proximity to the parent air mass. This time, the core of the arctic air set up about 200 miles to the west of Houston, reducing our impact. But, we did catch a taste of the arctic blast before it modified, with temperatures falling some 20°-30 with dew points dipping from the 50s into the 20s and low 30s. In some cases with the rain, we were less than 5° from our own icing event -- so the fears and potential for ice down here was nearly realized. Historically, systems in this family have produced icy weather for our region, in southeast TX.

People out west are getting some big freeze right now, especially in California, Arizona, and Nevada. There had been big freezes in that region in February 1989 and December 1990.

[sambucol]

Anything like that in the near future for us in SE Texas?

[Electric Lizard]

What I find unusual about this cold snap is that the really cold air seems to be uncharacteristically bottled up to the west. Is this the result of the particular phases that the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations are in?

[harpman]

I believe it is due to the strong southern ridge that may be keeping it from advancing much to the east. Thoughts anyone?

[Heat Miser]

Thanks Brooks. I appreciate the time and effort you took to explain perceptions. I think srain clarified what my issues were with this latest outbreak. I need to remember this KHOU weather forum, unlike the television station itself, isn't just for the local KHOU viewing area. We've suggested in the past, at least some have, to have separate regional areas such as southeast Texas, Hill Country, west Texas, north Texas, and the Panhandle area. Also states that surround Texas would also help clarify some misconceptions some may have. When you live in the KHOU viewing area and see a thread titled (December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible) you tend to believe maybe just maybe that applies to this particular area. I have to remember that this applies to a very large swath of the CONUS, not just the KHOU viewing area.

[brooksgarner]

Thanks Brooks. I appreciate the time and effort you took to explain perceptions. I think srain clarified what my issues were with this latest outbreak. I need to remember this KHOU weather forum, unlike the television station itself, isn't just for the local KHOU viewing area. We've suggested in the past, at least some have, to have separate regional areas such as southeast Texas, Hill Country, west Texas, north Texas, and the Panhandle area. Also states that surround Texas would also help clarify some misconceptions some may have. When you live in the KHOU viewing area and see a threat titled (December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible) you tend to believe maybe just maybe that applies to this particular area. I have to remember that this applies to a very large swath of the CONUS, not just the KHOU viewing area.

I'm in agreement with you, Heat Miser, that being a weather forum hosted by KHOU -- a TV station in Houston -- it's going to be more Houston-centric than otherwise, but certainly the brilliant minds on this board [not including me! Haha] have attracted a much broader audience, so some topics will skew from Houston, to CONUS regional, to national. Hope your have an awesome 2015!!!