January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

[ronyan]

850 temps are forecast to be near the same for NOLA, and the surface should be colder going by current guidance. The real question is whether there will be any moisture available post frontal passage.

[harpman]

Unfortunately, there seems to be no sign of moisture. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[Portastorm]

Should be an interesting week ahead with major-league cold on the way and even a shot at some wintry precip in south central Texas per EWX's afternoon forecast discussion.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Happy January 2nd! Looking for another misty, drizzly day across southeast TX. Still, significant icing potential (in progress) in central/west, panhandle region... A totally different world up there today... No wintry weather here in southeast TX, but with 40s and low 50s for highs, it'll feel more like New England in March, than Houston in January.

Tonight a strong upper system -- resulting from that arctic blast for the southwest -- approaches and enhances our jet stream dynamics (upper-level divergence), resulting in convection (elevated) with overnight storms. Some storms I see as potentially severe with wind gusts the main threat. Low level jet develops with 40kt winds... A downdraft could easily translate that to the ground with gusts over 50mph around sunrise tomorrow. Modest hail potential too...

Then, looking for subsidence behind the front tomorrow and sunshine breaking out by lunch, for a pleasant Saturday afternoon.

After all this chilly weather, low 60s for highs tomorrow will feel delightful.

Anyone going to work today?


-Brooks

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So do tell, Srainhoutex/Portastorm, what colour are Brooks eyes???
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Khe1_O6wH4Q

Last naughty post I can make before I head back to my usual home...after I apologize to David (it just isn't fair that you folks don't see what Cyclenall does).

[jeff]

Unfortunately, there seems to be no sign of moisture. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Very little moisture to none until Thursday along the Rio Grande and then spreading east across TX Friday. Air mass modification will be ongoing with onshore winds returning by Friday...likely some of the coldest lows yet this winter this week, but not looking at any winter precip. unless the Baja low moves toward the state faster than expected.

[unome]

this does not sound fun at all...

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

THURSDAY: WITHOUT CLOUDS TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SETX MAY DROP TO NEAR 10 AND UPPER TEENS IN HOUSTON AND MID 20S AT GALVESTON! BUT (AND THIS IS A BIG BUT) GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AND SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TO THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE (HARD FREEZE) FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS (BRENHAM TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND) FREEZING THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT FREEZE ON THE ISLAND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER HIGH- COLDER AIRMASS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND FORTUNATELY IT SHOULDN`T BE ANY STRONGER. THE NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHT THE UNUSUALLY COLD NATURE OF THE THIS AIRMASS ESPECIALLY FOR LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY BUT NONETHELESS IT IS COMING.

[nuby3]

January 10th - January 13th really has my attention right now. this month looks awesome so far

[srainhoutx]

The cold front cleared the Coast. Whatever the your currents temperature is, do not expect much in the way of daytime heating under sunny skies. Tonight is just a 'teaser' what lies ahead Wednesday. Worrisome to see that some areas may approach 12 hours below freezing...possibly longer if the guidance has under estimated the very dense cold Artic front over a fresh snow cover from the Rockies into the Plains. I'm seeing a lot of -30's Fahrenheit across Western Alaska this morning with plenty of -40's Celsius across our source Regions in Canada as well.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Another strong arctic cold front is headed for the area.

Very cold temperatures expected Wednesday-Friday with a hard freeze possible Thursday morning.

Upper air pattern remains highly amplified with ridging deep into Alaska and a downstream trough across much of the western and central US. This continues to allow large arctic high pressure cells to develop over NW Canada and move SSE down the great plains into TX. This pattern looks to remain in place through this week allowing some of the coldest air of this winter to enter the region.

One such arctic boundary will be crossing the area this morning with gusty NW winds and cold air advection this afternoon. Temperatures will reach their highs around noon and then remain steady or fall slightly this afternoon under the influence of the upstream colder air mass moving into the region. Light freeze is likely for areas NW of US 59 Monday morning with winds weakening overnight and going near calm by sunrise Monday and a dry air mass in place. Lows will range from the 28-32 range NW of US 59 with temperatures warmer toward the coast in the 35-40 degree range where winds remain stronger overnight.

Brief warm up on Monday and Tuesday before a massive 1055mb arctic high comes crashing down the plains mid week.

Next strong arctic front will arrive late Tuesday and the air mass behind this boundary means business. Strong cold air advection will onset Tuesday afternoon and last into Thursday as surface pressures of nearly 1050mb build as far south as N TX…fairly impressive. Forecast models show a very dry and cold air mass building into the region on Wednesday with high temperatures struggling to get much into the 40’s even with sunny conditions. North winds of 15-25mph will produce wind chills into the 20’s and 30’s much of the day.

Wednesday night/Thursday AM:
Critical time period for potentially widespread damaging hard freeze will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast models are showing a bitter cold and dry air mass in place by Wednesday evening and Thursday morning with GFS forecast dewpoints across the region in the 1’s and lower 10’s. Current guidance is showing hard freeze conditions for nearly all locations except the coastal counties Thursday AM (2 hours or greater below 25) with a few locations north of HWY 105 possibly falling into the upper 10’s. Temperatures could go even lower given the very low dewpoints that will be in place, but strong winds should continue into the overnight hours along with increasing upper level cirrus clouds ahead of the next storm system over the Baja region. Even with the winds and clouds, guidance is still showing a hard freeze Thursday morning and this freeze would likely be somewhat advective in nature which is usually more damaging in this area as the “greenhouse” method of vegetation protection generally fails for advective freezes. Wind chills Thursday morning will be well into the 10’s across the region!

Friday-Next Weekend:
Next upper level storm system moves across MX from Baja and toward TX on Friday. Cold arctic air mass will still be in place Friday with lows possibly once again falling below freezing. Surface layer is very dry as noted by the very low dewpoints…so while clouds will be thickening from the SW do not expect any precipitation while the surface temperatures are below freezing. Coastal trough is formed over the NW Gulf Friday in response to incoming system from the WSW in the upper levels. While the air mass should modify models are usually too fast in warming arctic cold domes suggesting with clouds and developing light rain Friday temperatures may be stuck in the 30’s. GFS tries to back door a surge a cold sub freezing arctic air into the region from the NNE on Sunday with widespread overrunning conditions in place. For now will keep everything liquid from Friday through next weekend awaiting better model consistency and indications on how the surface air mass over the region will behave as moisture returns.

[Portastorm]

Folks need to take this seriously and ensure all external pipes and faucets are wrapped. A large portion of Texas will see below to well below freezing temperatures several nights/early mornings. This will be the coldest airmass of the season.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Corpus Christi issues Freeze Warning roughly from Cotulla to Victoria until 9:00AM tomorrow morning.

[Portastorm]

Some interesting chatter from the NWSFOs in Austin/San Antonio and Houston/Galveston about a late week possibility of wintry precip in portions of south central and southeast Texas:

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARMING BY THIS TIME AND ALL LIQUID...
BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE WATCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

HOUSTON/GALVESTON
THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING IF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS LINGERS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH WHEN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THE GFSBUFR
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FORECAST MOISTENING IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH A VERY DRY LEVEL BELOW 850 MB...WITH THE DRY
LAYER MOISTENING FRIDAY MORNING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH TO ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

[brooksgarner]

Pretty stout high coming down from Canada! Approach 1060mb and modifying more slowly -- plus setting up farther east -- to push colder arctic air toward Houston than last week's.

[Paul Robison]

Pretty stout high coming down from Canada! Approach 1060mb and modifying more slowly -- plus setting up farther east -- to push colder arctic air toward Houston than last week's.

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Will ERCOT likely issue power conservation alerts when these temperatures fall? Sorry to be hung up on this, but, well, it is important to me.

[ronyan]

It doesn't look likely we will get to near freezing here tonight. Sitting at 48.4F with a dewpoint of 38.

[Paul Robison]

It doesn't look likely we will get to near freezing here tonight. Sitting at 48.4F with a dewpoint of 38.

Sorry, I meant on Wednesday. Remember this?:

No rotating outages at this time.

AUSTIN, TX, Jan. 6, 2014. – With cold temperatures and high electric use this morning, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has announced an Energy Emergency Alert and has implemented the first two stages of its steps to protect the grid.

"We have brought on all available electric generation and have deployed all demand response programs that have contracted with ERCOT to reduce electric use in emergency situations," said Dan Woodfin, ERCOT director of System Operations. "Conditions appear to be improving at this time, and we do not expect to implement rotating outages at this time."


Here are some ways to help until operating reserves are restored to target levels:

Keep your thermostat as low as is comfortable, preferably no higher than 68 degrees.


Turn off and unplug non-essential lights and appliances.


Avoid running large appliances such as washers, dryers and electric ovens during peak energy demand hours (6-9 a.m. and 4-8 p.m.).


Close shades and blinds at night to reduce the amount of heat lost through windows.


Businesses should minimize the use of electric lighting and electricity-consuming equipment as much as possible.


Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.


See more conservation tips at Power to Save Texas, Public Utility Commission of Texas: http://www.powertosavetexas.org/

Power Warnings are issued by the regional electric grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), when there is a likelihood that rotating outages will be needed to reduce load .

Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electrical service initiated by each utility when supplies of reserve power are exhausted. Without this safety valve, generators would overload and begin shutting down to avoid damage, risking a domino effect of a region-wide outage.

Rotating outages primarily affect residential neighborhoods and small businesses.

The outages are typically limited to 10-45 minutes before being rotated to a different neighborhood. Some customers may experience longer outages if power surges cause equipment failure during the restoration process. Customers can minimize power surges by turning off appliances, lights and other equipment, except for one task light to determine when power has been restored.


I have to go up in an elevator in an multi-story building early Thursday morning. I'd hate to be stuck in that thing during a rotating outage. That is why I'm mentioning this. This does, after all, seem to be a pretty serious freeze we're talking about.

Oh, one more thing: Where are the "northern parts" of the watch area that might see a little frozen precip on Friday per HGX disco?

[Portastorm]

Paul, ERCOT has publicly stated that it would have enough power this winter to avoid what happened last January and back in 2012. They also promised the Legislature they would avoid such an outcome this winter. So I think you'll be fine.

[Paul Robison]

Paul, ERCOT has publicly stated that it would have enough power this winter to avoid what happened last January and back in 2012. They also promised the Legislature they would avoid such an outcome this winter. So I think you'll be fine.

Good to know, Portastorm. I'm still curious, however, about the "northern portions" of the CWA that might see frozen precipitation on Friday. My geography is a little rusty. Do they mean Conroe, Tomball, places like that?

BTW: Don't worry. When ERCOT tells me to conserve, I do my part.

[srainhoutx]

It doesn't look likely we will get to near freezing here tonight. Sitting at 48.4F with a dewpoint of 38.

Already down to 39F here in NW Harris County with dp of 29 ronyan. This likely will be more of N and W of Metro Houston light freeze/frost event versus further S tonight.

[unome]

well after covering our plants tonight, I checked some northern discussions, just to feel warmer...

a bit of NWS Duluth's 3:15 PM, aka "why I don't live there"

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ABOUT -5 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN FA...TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN FA. THE WIND SPEEDS WERE ABOUT 5 TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILLS RANGED FROM ABOUT 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO OVER THE SOUTHERN FA...TO 30 TO 35 BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN FA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ZERO. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. THE NORTHERN FA WILL BE THE COLDEST REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE 5 TO 15 WNW TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 35 TO 50 BELOW ZERO.

that's a 100 degree difference from S FL to N MN