November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead

[unome]

as long as it's not "protect your plants/pipes/pets" cold, I am looking forward to cool weather & low electric bills

day 3-7 min temp loop
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/minloop.html


day 3-7 max temp loop
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/maxloop.html

[BlueJay]

Steady rain here this afternoon.
So far today we have received 1.26 inches.

[tireman4]

Still nothing at Gulfgate.

[Texaspirate11]

No rain in the bay area. Bust.

[kayci]

Finally gettin the wet stuff in Alvin

[kayci]

Ok weather buddies... can anyone give me a hint as to how long this wetness is gonna continue for the coastal counties tonight?

[wxman57]

Ok weather buddies... can anyone give me a hint as to how long this wetness is gonna continue for the coastal counties tonight?

Looks like the rain my taper off and end on the coast (Galveston area) between sunrise and noon tomorrow.

[kayci]

Ok weather buddies... can anyone give me a hint as to how long this wetness is gonna continue for the coastal counties tonight?

Looks like the rain my taper off and end on the coast (Galveston area) between sunrise and noon tomorrow.

Thank you, sir!

[srainhoutx]

The light showers should end later today as drier air moves in from the N. The pesky upper low the brought much need rainfall will finally begin to shift S and shear out on Friday over NE Mexico. a weak back door front is expected to arrive early Saturday giving us a great weekend.

Attention then turns to our N where the upper jet stream pattern across N America buckles at extratropical cyclone Nuri wraps up into a Major Bering Sea Superstorm. The Arctic and Polar Jet streams drop very far S into the Plains ushering in the coldest air of the season. There are some interesting developments in the tropical Eastern Pacific that raises an eyebrow. The Arctic front will sweep across Texas late on Monday and off the Coast next Tuesday. In the Eastern Pacific, a tropical disturbance is festering (96E) that may provide for a noisy sub tropical jet across our Region after the Arctic boundary passes. The indications are this very chilly airmass will not be in a hurry to modify, so we will also have to watch for additional upper air energy dropping S along the Rockies with re enforcing shots of cold air from the snow covered Prairies of Canada.

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11062014 06Z GFS IR 180 gfs_ir_namer_31.png

[Kingwood32]

 "There are some interesting developments in the tropical Eastern Pacific that raises an eyebrow."

I live when srainhoutx says stuff like this..especially in winter time

[jasons2k]

I think we missed the training cells and flooding rains by a bit more than "tens of miles". A couple hundred miles in the weather wold ain't no big deal, right? Sorry, just had to.

Seriously though, I've had 1.02" over the last two days. Plants are very happy. Next.

Just spare me the freezing weather until Christmas. I need my plants to stay perky for the holiday visitors.

[Portastorm]

So would now be a bad time to report I received about 2.6"?

Hey ... we did need it over here. Good healthy rains fell on the Hill Country and Edwards Acquifer.

[djmike]

Only .70" according to my rain gauge here in Beaumont. Was expecting more than that from what was relayed from our "on tv" mets here. But, It's better than nothing. It just seems when its mentioned that 2-5" are possible with any storm system, we hardly get anything, but when excessive rainfall isn't mentioned, that's when we see the 7". Oh well, .70" is better than nothing though. Congrats to those who got much more. Have a great Thursday!

[ticka1]

Now with the rain having happened - when do we start talking about the artic blast that will hopefully make it all the way south to SE Texas next week? Any guess oh just how cold it will be? Interesting to watch model runs through the weekend and then the actual forecasts once that timeframe happens.

I will say that temps will get between 32-36 degrees

[Heat Miser]

 "There are some interesting developments in the tropical Eastern Pacific that raises an eyebrow."

I live when srainhoutx says stuff like this..especially in winter time

Don't believe it'll be that exciting. Probably colder temps with some rain, that's it. If it were December, January, or February, maybe it would be something to get excited about. December 4th, 2009 was our earliest snowfall. December will be when I start getting excited.

[jasons2k]

I thought the front was supposed to wash out yesterday ?!?!?

[srainhoutx]

All system are go for a pleasant weekend and the upper low currently just S of the Big Bend finally weakens and shears out. The pesky upper low which helped in steering the remnants of EPAC TC Vance NE across Texas brought and 8 foot rise in the Edwards Aquifer in a 48 hour period. This sort of steady rainfall was sorely needed across Central Texas. A cold front will arrive on Saturday reinforcing the pleasant Fall temperatures before the big pattern change we've all heard about by now ahead for next week.



The Global Ensembles and Operational computer guidance is in remarkably good agreement the former Super Typhoon Nuri will transition into a powerful Extratropical Storm near the Bering Sea. In the water vapor satellite imagery above, the storm is now entering the far upper left of the imagery and should wrap up and be rather impressive via satellite visible pictures over the weekend into Monday. Winds near or above 80 MPH with wave heights nearing 50 feet are forecast and expect near the Aleutian Island and the Bering Sea. The Super Storm will buckle the jet stream and allow very impressive cold air that has been building across Eurasia/Siberia due to extremely heavy October snowfall near record territory to be pulled across the Arctic into North America and spill very far south into Texas, Mexico and eventually into the Yucatan and Cuba later next week. The Canadian Prairies have been getting snow over the past several weeks, but the Northern/Central Plains are lacking any snow, so airmass modification will occur. That said the coldest air of the season will plunge S along and E of the Continental Divide and remain entrenched with reinforcing shots of cold air with the fast moving Northerly flow aloft and embedded upper air energy (shortwaves) bring cold fronts in fairly rapid progression during next week. The teleconnection indices are aligning in a very impressive fashion that bring a very - Arctic Oscillation/AO (-4+) -North Atlantic Oscillation/NAO (-1.5+) -East Pacific Oscillation/EPO (-4+) +Pacific North America Pattern/PNA (+3) regime together next week and just beyond the mid November timeframe. What this means for the Southern Plains and Texas is a Ridge of High Pressure build off the West Coast into Eastern Alaska into the Arctic while a very deep trough develops across Central and Eastern North America. The Pattern become blocked across the Atlantic which would allow the cold air to sweep E and miss our Region as we see in most Fall and Winter patterns. The fly in the ointment is the sub tropical jet across the Pacific and what it may or may not bring as El Nino continues to unfold.

There is convection associated with a tropical disturbance (96E) several hundred miles off the W Coast of Mexico and the track guidance is suggesting this disturbance remains rather weak, but does turn it NE toward the Pacific Coast of Mexico next week. At the same time the computer guidance is 'sniffing' a robust piece of upper level energy (shortwave) under cutting the Ridge out W and developing a low pressure system along the front range of the Southern Rockies near New Mexico/Colorado. This happens later next week (around November 15th -17th) after the Arctic front arrives late on Monday into Tuesday. IF, and it is a big if the models such as the European are correct a big Winter like storm may develop across the Panhandle and cross the Southern Plains ushering in even colder air and build a snow cover across the Plains. If that happens, then much less airmass modification is a possibility. The guidance is suggesting another stronger Arctic front following this energy, so we have a lot of moving parts to follow on our weather plate and should lead to some interesting discussions as next week unfolds.

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[srainhoutx]

A quick update on the 12Z parallel GFS regarding early next week. It is not often even in the heart of Winter we see a 1052mb Arctic High settling into Montana, much less on November 11th-12th. This my friends will be a true 'blue norther'...

[Kingwood32]

A quick update on the 12Z parallel GFS regarding early next week. It is not often even in the heart of Winter we see a 1052mb Arctic High settling into Montana, much less on November 11th-12th. This my friends will be a true 'blue norther'...

U always know how to word stuff to get me all excited lol. ..bring on the blue norther!!!

[Heat Miser]

Think this will be a glancing blow with the majority of the cold air headed to the east southeast. Could be record breaking for Florida. My opinion and it's not a professional one.