October 2014: Slight Rain Chances/Halloween Outlook

[srainhoutx]

Elevated storms associated with an upper air disturbance dropping SE in the.NW aloft are firing this morning across Eastern Oklahoma into the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Southerly winds and a fairly quick recovery of low level moisture from the Gulf after our beautiful Fall weekend should allow for temperatures to rise quickly and spark showers/storms later today as the upper air disturbance nears SE Texas. Warm surface temperatures and much cooler mid level temps may allow for some stronger storms to develop. Small hail may not be out of the question later today during peak heating into the afternoon hours.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ163-164-177>179-061400-
TRINITY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-POLK TX-HOUSTON TX-WALKER TX-
804 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN WALKER...
POLK...TRINITY AND NORTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 803 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FAIRFIELD LAKE STATE PARK TO 8 MILES WEST OF FOREST TO ETOILE TO 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PATROON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...LIVINGSTON...APPLE SPRINGS...AUSTONIO...TRINITY...
ONALASKA...CORRIGAN...GRAPELAND...GROVETON...LOVELADY...KENNARD...
LATEXO...SEVEN OAKS...ALABAMA-COUSHATTA RESERVATION...SEBASTOPOL...
NORTHEASTERN WEST LIVINGSTON...CENTRALIA...MOSCOW...LEGGETT AND
PENNINGTON.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Severe weather ongoing over NE/E TX with potential to spread SSW into SE TX over the next several hours.

Well defined bow echo extends from NW Louisiana to near Centerville, TX and is racing SSE at 35-45mph. Leading edge of this feature consists of damaging straight line winds to near 70mph with numerous reports of downed trees and power lines. Radar and satellite images show this feature appears to be holding together well as it marches SSE and will soon begin to encounter a much more moist air mass with dewpoints in the 68-72 degree range. Cold pool generation within the backside inflow of the bow feature should also help maintain a strong forward push and help to increase the temperature difference on the leading edge as the downstream air mass heats.

SPC has expanded the slight risk area to include most of SE TX for this afternoon as the air mass warms into the mid to upper 80’s instability will rise into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Main thrust on ongoing bow echo and corridor of wind damage should be from roughly Lake Livingston to Lake Charles however westward development on a surging outflow boundary to the SSW/SW is expected to affect a good part of the region by midday/early afternoon as suggested by HRRR and TX TECH high resolution models.

Main threat will be wind damage to 70mph with fast forward storm motions.

[srainhoutx]

10062014 mcd1814.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX...LA...MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061431Z - 061630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING
SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 30-35 KT. A
WATCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST.

DISCUSSION...MATURE QLCS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AT 30-35 KT.
IF THIS SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN INTEGRITY LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WILL TAKE
IT TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING AND OFF THE GULF
COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SABINE PASS AROUND NOON. CONVECTIVE
CHARACTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN NEARLY
STEADY-STATE. RECENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...DO SUGGEST A GRADUAL DEMISE
IN STORM INTENSITY WITH DOWNWARD TENDENCIES IN LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
REFLECTIVITY...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN COLD IR CLOUD-TOP TEMPS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPREAD SOUTH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW BUT
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A
MODESTLY AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT LIES ALONG THE GULF
COAST. WHILE LOCALIZED GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CAN MAINTAIN LINEAR CHARACTER AND DEVELOP INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY...CURRENT SPEED AND CHARACTER OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT
SUGGEST A VIABLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND HAZARD...AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

..CARBIN/HART.. 10/06/2014


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1052 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ177>179-199-200-213-214-237-238-061715-
BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-SAN JACINTO TX-POLK TX-WALKER TX-
LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
1052 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1048 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 25 MPH. THIS LINE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MERGE WILL ADDITIONAL CELLS MOVING IN FROM THE
COAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. LOCALIZED ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD LEAD TO
STREET FLOODING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...
FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...
HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...TOMBALL...
JACINTO CITY...WEBSTER...LIBERTY AND CLEVELAND.

[niner21]

Hey guys I have a golf tourney Thursday to Saturday in Montgomery...

Rain is showing 30-40% on those days. Think this is a spotty, quick hitter, kind of rain or is it the all day dreary crap? Judging by the other forecasts it looks like juicy atmosphere and pop up type rain?

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1101 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-
1101 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1059 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES AROUND 3.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE BEING
OBSERVED BY THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM GAGES. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING...BUT RATES THIS HIGH IN SUCH A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WILL CAUSE URBAN STREET FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...EASTERN PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...TEXAS CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...DICKINSON...SOUTH HOUSTON...
SANTA FE...SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...WEBSTER...
KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE...GREATER EASTWOOD...SECOND WARD AND BARRETT.

[srainhoutx]

Hey guys I have a golf tourney Thursday to Saturday in Montgomery...

Rain is showing 30-40% on those days. Think this is a spotty, quick hitter, kind of rain or is it the all day dreary crap? Judging by the other forecasts it looks like juicy atmosphere and pop up type rain?

Probably more typical daytime heating showers/storms niner21. That said a lot still depends on how all that mid/upper level moisture from Eastern Pacific storm Simon evolves as it lift N and E into Northern Mexico and the Southern Rockies. That computer models are having fits with the NW flow aloft and the flat ridge overhead as well as moisture returning from the Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

Storm cell merger about to commence in Eastern Harris and Liberty Counties. These storms are capable of dropping 2+ inches of rain per hour.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1138 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BAYTOWN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...LIBERTY...DAYTON...HIGHLANDS...BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...
MONT BELVIEU...OLD RIVER-WINFREE...AMES...HARDIN...KENEFICK...
COVE...DEVERS...DAYTON LAKES AND WALLISVILLE.

[jasons2k]

I've had some gusts over 40 mph up here.

You should check out the base velocity loop - that collision is going to be something near Hwy 90 south of Crosby:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

Cells in NW/Northern Harris County about to go severe. Frequent CG associated with this cell cluster.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXC201-061800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0158.141006T1656Z-141006T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
1156 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1156 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...SPRING...WILLOWBROOK...SPLASHTOWN AND HOOKS AIRPORT.

[srainhoutx]

53 MPH wind gust reported at IAH

[jasons2k]

Dang it, I missed out again!! It looked great on radar and then it suddenly just collapsed/evaporated on top of me. Lots of wind for sure, and a few quick bursts of what seemed like pouring rain, but strangely the ground is barely wet as it dies off. I can't remember the last time I saw a storm collapse so fast. That was over and done quick. I probably got a few hundredths. More yard debris than anything.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1204 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1204 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED OVER JERSEY VILLAGE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. PENNY
SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLAIRE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL
VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...SPRING BRANCH
WEST...ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...SPRING VALLEY...ADDICKS PARK TEN...
GREATER GREENSPOINT...HEDWIG VILLAGE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...MEYERLAND
AREA...WESTBURY...BRIAR FOREST...SPRING BRANCH CENTRAL...SPRING
BRANCH EAST...WESTWOOD AND FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1209 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1208 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OLD RIVER-WINFREE...
OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF DAYTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...DAYTON...MONT BELVIEU...OLD RIVER-WINFREE...AMES...
KENEFICK AND COVE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1210 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ199-200-212>214-227-237-238-061815-
BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-
CHAMBERS TX-FORT BEND TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
1210 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...EASTERN WALLER...SOUTHERN LIBERTY...NORTHEASTERN FORT
BEND...NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA...GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES UNTIL
115 PM CDT...

AT 1210 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAMSHIRE TO NEAR
HIGHLANDS TO EAST HOUSTON TO NEAR HOCKLEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...SUGAR LAND...BAYTOWN...MISSOURI
CITY...GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...GALVESTON
ISLAND EAST END...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...
EASTERN ROSENBERG...ALVIN...DICKINSON...STAFFORD...SOUTH HOUSTON...
BELLAIRE AND HUMBLE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1219 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ197-210>213-226-227-061815-
COLORADO TX-HARRIS TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-
WASHINGTON TX-
1219 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AUSTIN...SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON...WEST CENTRAL HARRIS...WALLER...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND AND NORTHERN WHARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM
CDT...

AT 1219 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BRENHAM TO NEAR PATTISON...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEALY...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...BELLVILLE...WALLIS...
PINE ISLAND...SIMONTON...SAN FELIPE...PATTISON...INDUSTRY...CAT
SPRING...FRELSBURG...NEW ULM AND MONAVILLE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ211>213-226-227-061800-
HARRIS TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN...WEST
CENTRAL HARRIS...SOUTHEASTERN WALLER...NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND AND
NORTH CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1221 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER KATY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSENBERG...KATY...RICHMOND...BROOKSHIRE...PECAN GROVE...SOUTHWESTERN
ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...FULSHEAR...PLEAK...
SIMONTON...FAIRCHILDS...BEASLEY...KENDLETON...ORCHARD...CINCO RANCH
AND CUMINGS.