Morning Update from Jeff:
Flash Flood Watch extended until 1000pm
Yet another day of slow moving heavy rainfall across the region within a very moist 2.0 inch PWS air mass. Already this morning numerous showers and thunderstorms have develop in NW to SE bands with rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour. Very slow storm motions on the order of 5mph or less is resulting in quick rainfall accumulations on already soggy grounds. Areas most impacted currently are along I-10 from Sealy to Downtown Houston and over coastal Galveston County where rainfall rates of 1-2 inches are occurring. A HCFCD rain gage on Mason Creek SSE of Katy recorded 2.64 inches of rainfall in an hour this morning.
Pretty much the same factors are in place today that were in place yesterday except storm motion appear the slowest we have seen this entire week. Think the morning activity will go on for another 3-4 hours then maybe stabilize the local air mass as suggested by the rapid refresh models. Not sure how the afternoon will play out as any heating will only set things off again.
Given the very slow storm motions and high moisture levels looks like another 1-3 inches of rainfall is possible with isolated amounts of 4-6 inches on top of the 1-6 inches over the last 2-3 days. With grounds saturated run-off into area watersheds will be greater leading to quicker and more significant rises.
Street flooding continues to be a significant threat given the hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches which will overwhelm most street system capacities.
Should finally see this pattern break tonight as drier air moves into the region from the NE shunting the moisture SW. Still have Odile remains over NM this morning that will push across W TX this weekend and this could help to keep a more moist pattern in place a little longer so rain chances over the weekend may need to be raised some.
Hydro:
All rivers, bayous, and creeks are within banks this morning, but elevated from rainfall run-off.
September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month
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srainhoutx
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srainhoutx
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0391
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
705 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 191104Z - 191604Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE 08Z. CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, HOURLY
RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FORMED OVER A
STATIONARY FRONT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS JUST INLAND OF THE TX
COAST, NEAR A ZONE OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TX. ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY A JET STREAK
ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES (MIXED AND UNSTABLE) OF 1000-2000 J/KG LIE
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY PER THE MOST RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS. LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MINIMAL,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OF A SINGLE CELL OR PULSE NATURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2", AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER, SUPPORT HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 2.5" WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY.
MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF CELL
MERGERS. AS CAPE/INSTABILITY BECOMES EXHAUSTED IN THE COLD SECTOR
OF THE BOUNDARY RELATIVELY EASILY, THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY COASTAL WITH TIME. THE 00Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING THREE HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE
REGION COULD PERSIST AT LONG AS 19Z ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TX COAST. SINCE CONVECTION IS OF THE PULSE VARIETY,
BELIEVE THE THREAT COULD BE OF SHORTER DURATION, SO USED A FIVE
HOUR WINDOW FOR THIS MPD. THE REGION HAS BEEN SATURATED BY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, MAKING IT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE HERE.
ROTH
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...
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srainhoutx
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From Nesdis:
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/19/14 1054Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1045Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...DEVELOPING BAND OF SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1045-1545Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO
CONGEAL AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS SERN TX BTWN AUS AND HOU.
ERLY/SERLY LLVL FLOW HAS ALLOWED GULF MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MID TO UP LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE STREAM
IN FROM THE W. THIS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ENHANCED
VERTICAL MOTIONS/UL DIFFLUENCE FROM APPROACHING JET STREAK NOTED IN RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SLIDING SE ALONG THE RED RIVER BASIN. GOES SOUNDER
DOES INDICATE AN AIRMASS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS
CONTAINING AROUND 2000 K/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION IN PLACE.
THINKING GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTMS WOULD BE FROM
JUST E OF CLL TO GLS BASED ON POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY PER 10Z SFC
ANALYSIS...WHERE LLVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE GREATEST. HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT APPEARS POISED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS WITH RATES NEAR
2.0"/HR POSSIBLE. IR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HR FAVOR UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT
WHICH RAISES CONCERN FOR CELL TRAINING/MERGING LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
2-4" OF RAINFALL THRU 15Z.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/19/14 1054Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1045Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...DEVELOPING BAND OF SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1045-1545Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO
CONGEAL AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS SERN TX BTWN AUS AND HOU.
ERLY/SERLY LLVL FLOW HAS ALLOWED GULF MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MID TO UP LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE STREAM
IN FROM THE W. THIS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ENHANCED
VERTICAL MOTIONS/UL DIFFLUENCE FROM APPROACHING JET STREAK NOTED IN RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SLIDING SE ALONG THE RED RIVER BASIN. GOES SOUNDER
DOES INDICATE AN AIRMASS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS
CONTAINING AROUND 2000 K/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION IN PLACE.
THINKING GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTMS WOULD BE FROM
JUST E OF CLL TO GLS BASED ON POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY PER 10Z SFC
ANALYSIS...WHERE LLVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE GREATEST. HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT APPEARS POISED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS WITH RATES NEAR
2.0"/HR POSSIBLE. IR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HR FAVOR UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT
WHICH RAISES CONCERN FOR CELL TRAINING/MERGING LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
2-4" OF RAINFALL THRU 15Z.
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BlueJay
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2.92 inches and it is currently pouring down rain here.
Unfortunately, we do not have a system in place at our house to capture and contain this water for future use. I need to figure out how to do that.
Unfortunately, we do not have a system in place at our house to capture and contain this water for future use. I need to figure out how to do that.
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srainhoutx
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Getting a bit concerned for the Bear Creek/Mayde Creek/Cypress Creek water sheds as creek levels continue to rise and additional heavy rains are advancing slowly E from Austin/Waller/far Western Harris County. We have a lot of new developments under construction up here in NW Harris County and have been concerned how this rapid growth/construction across Western/NW Harris County would impact our drainage systems (creeks).
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srainhoutx
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HGX reports 3.16 inches of rain at South Mayde Creek and Greenhouse Rd in 3 hours.
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srainhoutx wrote:Getting a bit concerned for the Bear Creek/Mayde Creek/Cypress Creek water sheds as creek levels continue to rise and additional heavy rains are advancing slowly E from Austin/Waller/far Western Harris County. We have a lot of new developments under construction up here in NW Harris County and have been concerned how this rapid growth/construction across Western/NW Harris County would impact our drainage systems (creeks).
flood zone mapping tool, compliments of Harris Co Flood Control District - enter an address or even just a zip code, browse around, etc...
http://www.harriscountyfemt.org/
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
738 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
* AT 737 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ON GOING AND MAY
WORSEN.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...ROSENBERG...STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...RICHMOND...JERSEY VILLAGE...SEALY...
BROOKSHIRE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY
POINT VILLAGE...MIDTOWN HOUSTON...FOURTH WARD...GREATER THIRD
WARD...MISSION BEND...PECAN GROVE AND NEARTOWN / MONTROSE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
738 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
* AT 737 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ON GOING AND MAY
WORSEN.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...ROSENBERG...STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...RICHMOND...JERSEY VILLAGE...SEALY...
BROOKSHIRE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY
POINT VILLAGE...MIDTOWN HOUSTON...FOURTH WARD...GREATER THIRD
WARD...MISSION BEND...PECAN GROVE AND NEARTOWN / MONTROSE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
817 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...VALID 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SOUTHEAST NM AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE, ALONG WITH THE OTHER
ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS SETTING SAIL WELL TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF T.S. POLO INTO WESTERN TX, WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERWASH A STALLED W-E STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT S-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF ODILE'S SLOW-MOVING CENTER OF CIRCULATION, THOUGH IT SHOULD
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MCV/OLD 700 HPA CENTER OF ODILE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TX BY THIS EVENING SHOULD CLEAR NM
OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WEAK
ANTECEDENT UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE ODILE-RELATED CIRCULATION AND WITH
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, SATURATED SOILS BEDEVIL THE REGION, AND
CANNOT STAND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM ANY SORT OF
THUNDERSTORM, REGARDLESS OF ITS CONVECTIVE MODE. THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH FORM WITHIN THE REGION COULD ORGANIZE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS NEAR 25 KTS. MAINTAINED THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
AND WESTERN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE AREA TODAY. PER
THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3-6+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE OVERALL MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT (WARM RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. SEE MPD #0390 FOR MORE
ON SHORT TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER.
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX, A SEA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE, IN THE 2-2.25" RANGE, IS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER AND LIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
25 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ADVERTISED BY RECENT RAP GUIDANCE.
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING IN LEAGUE WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD GUARANTEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX IS
ONGOING AND SHOULD EXHAUST LOCAL INSTABILITY FOR A TIME WHICH
COULD FORCE NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS
ELUSIVE SEARCH FOR CAPE-RELATED BOUNTY. SEE MPD #0391 FOR MORE ON
SHORT TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX.
ROTH/HURLEY
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
817 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...VALID 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SOUTHEAST NM AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE, ALONG WITH THE OTHER
ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS SETTING SAIL WELL TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF T.S. POLO INTO WESTERN TX, WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERWASH A STALLED W-E STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT S-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF ODILE'S SLOW-MOVING CENTER OF CIRCULATION, THOUGH IT SHOULD
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MCV/OLD 700 HPA CENTER OF ODILE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TX BY THIS EVENING SHOULD CLEAR NM
OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WEAK
ANTECEDENT UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE ODILE-RELATED CIRCULATION AND WITH
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, SATURATED SOILS BEDEVIL THE REGION, AND
CANNOT STAND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM ANY SORT OF
THUNDERSTORM, REGARDLESS OF ITS CONVECTIVE MODE. THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH FORM WITHIN THE REGION COULD ORGANIZE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS NEAR 25 KTS. MAINTAINED THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
AND WESTERN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE AREA TODAY. PER
THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3-6+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE OVERALL MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT (WARM RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. SEE MPD #0390 FOR MORE
ON SHORT TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER.
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX, A SEA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE, IN THE 2-2.25" RANGE, IS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER AND LIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
25 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ADVERTISED BY RECENT RAP GUIDANCE.
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING IN LEAGUE WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD GUARANTEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX IS
ONGOING AND SHOULD EXHAUST LOCAL INSTABILITY FOR A TIME WHICH
COULD FORCE NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS
ELUSIVE SEARCH FOR CAPE-RELATED BOUNTY. SEE MPD #0391 FOR MORE ON
SHORT TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX.
ROTH/HURLEY
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
746 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
* AT 743 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON TOP OF SATURATED GROUND. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO WORSEN THROUGH THE WARNED AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...HUMBLE...TOMBALL...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...CHANNELVIEW...
HIGHLANDS...ALDINE...CLOVERLEAF...KINGWOOD...SPRING...BARRETT...
GREATER GREENSPOINT...THE WOODLANDS...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...OAK
RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...COVE...PORTER HEIGHTS AND HUNTERWOOD.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
746 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
* AT 743 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON TOP OF SATURATED GROUND. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO WORSEN THROUGH THE WARNED AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...HUMBLE...TOMBALL...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...CHANNELVIEW...
HIGHLANDS...ALDINE...CLOVERLEAF...KINGWOOD...SPRING...BARRETT...
GREATER GREENSPOINT...THE WOODLANDS...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...OAK
RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...COVE...PORTER HEIGHTS AND HUNTERWOOD.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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For the Austin Area:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
734 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
TXC453-491-191430-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0138.140919T1234Z-140919T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
734 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN...
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY...
* UNTIL 930 AM CDT
* AT 728 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
BULL CREEK AT LOOP 360 IS IN MINOR FLOOD WITH A STAGE OF 7.6
FEET. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CARE WHEN APPROACHING THE BRIDGE
AT FM 2222. ALSO...NUMEROUS OTHER CREEKS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
INCLUDING GILLELAND CREEK...SHOAL CREEK...WALNUT CREEK AND
WILBARGER CREEK WILL RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANDERSON MILL...CEDAR PARK...PFLUGERVILLE...ROUND ROCK AND
WINDEMERE.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
734 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
TXC453-491-191430-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0138.140919T1234Z-140919T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
734 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN...
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY...
* UNTIL 930 AM CDT
* AT 728 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
BULL CREEK AT LOOP 360 IS IN MINOR FLOOD WITH A STAGE OF 7.6
FEET. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CARE WHEN APPROACHING THE BRIDGE
AT FM 2222. ALSO...NUMEROUS OTHER CREEKS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
INCLUDING GILLELAND CREEK...SHOAL CREEK...WALNUT CREEK AND
WILBARGER CREEK WILL RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANDERSON MILL...CEDAR PARK...PFLUGERVILLE...ROUND ROCK AND
WINDEMERE.
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will that system up in west texas make it down here like this one?
-
srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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ticka1 wrote:will that system up in west texas make it down here like this one?
It looks like some 'drier air' is moving in from the NE. Hopefully that will shut off the rain fire hose we have seen this week.
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The last few frames of the water vapor loop don't give me a ton of confidence that the drier air will win the battle against the W. Texas blob. Hoping for some clear skies today/tomorrow.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The Weather Prediction Center is suggesting we may not be done yet across SE Texas as they have placed our area in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
957 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...VALID 15Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SOUTHEAST NM AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE -- WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PWS) OF 1.50-1.75" -- ALONG WITH ANOTHER ANOMALOUS
PW AXIS SETTING SAIL WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF T.S. POLO
INTO WESTERN TX, WILL CONTINUE TO OVERWASH A STALLED W-E
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
ODILE'S SLOW-MOVING CENTER OF CIRCULATION, THOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MCV/OLD 700 HPA CENTER OF ODILE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TX BY THIS EVENING SHOULD CLEAR NM
OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WEAK
ANTECEDENT UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE ODILE-RELATED CIRCULATION AND WITH
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, SATURATED SOILS BEDEVIL THE REGION AND
CANNOT STAND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM ANY SORT OF
THUNDERSTORM, REGARDLESS OF ITS CONVECTIVE MODE. THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH FORM WITHIN THE REGION COULD ORGANIZE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS NEAR 25 KTS. MAINTAINED THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
AND WESTERN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE AREA TODAY. PER
THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6-9
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE OVERALL MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT (WARM
RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5
INCHES PER HOUR.
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX, A SEA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE, IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE, NEAR TO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR MID-SEPTEMBER, LIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER AN
INCREASINGLY SATURATED AREA. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING 25 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ADVERTISED BY RECENT RAP GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY CAUSED BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN LEAGUE WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD
GUARANTEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX IS ONGOING AND SHOULD
EXHAUST LOCAL INSTABILITY FOR A TIME WHICH COULD FORCE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS ELUSIVE SEARCH FOR
CAPE-RELATED BOUNTY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX THIS AFTERNOON IF SUNNY SKIES BREAK OUT LATER TODAY,
SO INTRODUCED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-6" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. SEE MPD #0391 FOR MORE ON SHORT TERM
EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH 16Z.
ROTH/HURLEY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
957 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...VALID 15Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SOUTHEAST NM AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE -- WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PWS) OF 1.50-1.75" -- ALONG WITH ANOTHER ANOMALOUS
PW AXIS SETTING SAIL WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF T.S. POLO
INTO WESTERN TX, WILL CONTINUE TO OVERWASH A STALLED W-E
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
ODILE'S SLOW-MOVING CENTER OF CIRCULATION, THOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MCV/OLD 700 HPA CENTER OF ODILE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TX BY THIS EVENING SHOULD CLEAR NM
OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WEAK
ANTECEDENT UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE ODILE-RELATED CIRCULATION AND WITH
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, SATURATED SOILS BEDEVIL THE REGION AND
CANNOT STAND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM ANY SORT OF
THUNDERSTORM, REGARDLESS OF ITS CONVECTIVE MODE. THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH FORM WITHIN THE REGION COULD ORGANIZE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS NEAR 25 KTS. MAINTAINED THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
AND WESTERN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE AREA TODAY. PER
THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6-9
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE OVERALL MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT (WARM
RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5
INCHES PER HOUR.
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX, A SEA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE, IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE, NEAR TO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR MID-SEPTEMBER, LIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER AN
INCREASINGLY SATURATED AREA. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING 25 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ADVERTISED BY RECENT RAP GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY CAUSED BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN LEAGUE WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD
GUARANTEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX IS ONGOING AND SHOULD
EXHAUST LOCAL INSTABILITY FOR A TIME WHICH COULD FORCE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS ELUSIVE SEARCH FOR
CAPE-RELATED BOUNTY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX THIS AFTERNOON IF SUNNY SKIES BREAK OUT LATER TODAY,
SO INTRODUCED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-6" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. SEE MPD #0391 FOR MORE ON SHORT TERM
EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH 16Z.
ROTH/HURLEY
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
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- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
This is definitely the wettest summer I've ever experienced in my 34 years in Houston. Had a not-as-wet June after over 10" in may then 8" in July, 9" in August and who knows how much by the end of September.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1039 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1200 PM CDT
* AT 1036 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR BEGIN
SHORTLY.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...HUMBLE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...CHANNELVIEW...
HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...BARRETT...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...COVE...
HUNTERWOOD...EAST HOUSTON...PLEASANTVILLE AREA...BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...EL DORADO / OATES PRAIRIE...EAST LITTLE
YORK / HOMESTEAD...LAKE HOUSTON...SHELDON AND HOUSTON GARDENS.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1039 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1200 PM CDT
* AT 1036 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR BEGIN
SHORTLY.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...HUMBLE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...CHANNELVIEW...
HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...BARRETT...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...COVE...
HUNTERWOOD...EAST HOUSTON...PLEASANTVILLE AREA...BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...EL DORADO / OATES PRAIRIE...EAST LITTLE
YORK / HOMESTEAD...LAKE HOUSTON...SHELDON AND HOUSTON GARDENS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-MADISON-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...SHEPHERD
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THESE COUNTIES HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE AMOUNT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WOULD NORMALLY WARRANT A CONTINUED FLOOD
WATCH. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED 6 INCH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN
SAN JACINTO COUNTY...MOST COMMUNITIES PICKED UP AN AVERAGE ONE HALF
AN INCH TO NEAR TWO INCHES OF RAIN. GROUNDS ARE NOT THAT SATURATED
AND CAN MOST LIKELY HANDLE ADDITIONAL FORECAST RAINFALL OF BETWEEN
A HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
$$
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...
TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...WALLER AND WHARTON.
* UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
* OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE REGION HAS RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...AN AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED
AREAS PICKING UPWARDS OF 7 TO 8 INCHES. SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAD LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AS CENTRAL COUNTY
MORNING ACTIVITY SAGS TOWARDS THE COAST. THE FORECAST IS FOR
POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PUT DOWN ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES...THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING RAIN WILL ONLY EXACERBATE LOCALIZED
FLOODING GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND POINTS
WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING AND LOW LYING AREAS TO GO UNDER
WATER. MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID ANY FLOODED ROADWAY.
SOUTH MAYDE CREEK IN WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF
BANKS. RESIDENTS THAT LIVE NEAR LOCAL BAYOUS NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR BAYOU WATER LEVEL BEHAVIOR. DUE TO RECENT RUN-OFF
ISSUES...A QUICK BURST OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THESE BASINS
WILL PROVIDE FOR RAPID BAYOU WATER RISES.
* TIMING AND LOCATION...PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING BUT SLOWLY
WEAKENING THIS MORNING. A LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON LULL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE POPULATED AREAS OF HARRIS...MONTGOMERY...FORT
BEND...AND GALVESTON COUNTIES WITH A RE-GENERATION EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARILY RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM
SOUTH OF A BELLVILLE TO CONROE TO LIBERTY LINE....SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY THOUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN
REGENERATING ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OR
SHOWERY WEATHER...WITH VERY LOCALIZED STRONGER CELLS QUICKLY
PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-MADISON-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...SHEPHERD
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THESE COUNTIES HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE AMOUNT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WOULD NORMALLY WARRANT A CONTINUED FLOOD
WATCH. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED 6 INCH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN
SAN JACINTO COUNTY...MOST COMMUNITIES PICKED UP AN AVERAGE ONE HALF
AN INCH TO NEAR TWO INCHES OF RAIN. GROUNDS ARE NOT THAT SATURATED
AND CAN MOST LIKELY HANDLE ADDITIONAL FORECAST RAINFALL OF BETWEEN
A HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
$$
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...
TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...WALLER AND WHARTON.
* UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
* OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE REGION HAS RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...AN AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED
AREAS PICKING UPWARDS OF 7 TO 8 INCHES. SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAD LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AS CENTRAL COUNTY
MORNING ACTIVITY SAGS TOWARDS THE COAST. THE FORECAST IS FOR
POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PUT DOWN ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES...THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING RAIN WILL ONLY EXACERBATE LOCALIZED
FLOODING GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND POINTS
WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING AND LOW LYING AREAS TO GO UNDER
WATER. MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID ANY FLOODED ROADWAY.
SOUTH MAYDE CREEK IN WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF
BANKS. RESIDENTS THAT LIVE NEAR LOCAL BAYOUS NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR BAYOU WATER LEVEL BEHAVIOR. DUE TO RECENT RUN-OFF
ISSUES...A QUICK BURST OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THESE BASINS
WILL PROVIDE FOR RAPID BAYOU WATER RISES.
* TIMING AND LOCATION...PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING BUT SLOWLY
WEAKENING THIS MORNING. A LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON LULL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE POPULATED AREAS OF HARRIS...MONTGOMERY...FORT
BEND...AND GALVESTON COUNTIES WITH A RE-GENERATION EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARILY RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM
SOUTH OF A BELLVILLE TO CONROE TO LIBERTY LINE....SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY THOUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN
REGENERATING ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OR
SHOWERY WEATHER...WITH VERY LOCALIZED STRONGER CELLS QUICKLY
PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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rgweathergeek
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:36 am
- Location: Clear Lake
- Contact:
It has been an impressive summer in terms of rain and lower temperatures, here's hoping for a long fall like spring was. Nice to see a bit more of a steadier rain instead of the downpours we saw yesterday down here near the lake. Of course the mosquitoes will be back with a vengeance next week. 
It looks like the rain coverage is weakening as the atmosphere is stabilizing around the metro area but some individual cells are beginning to form far SW near Victoria where it is in the upper 80's and the atmosphere hasn't been stabilized.
It looks like the rain coverage is weakening as the atmosphere is stabilizing around the metro area but some individual cells are beginning to form far SW near Victoria where it is in the upper 80's and the atmosphere hasn't been stabilized.