September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:14 am

HGX strongly considering issuing a Flash Flood Watch at this hour for SE Texas.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:44 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1241 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.140917T1741Z-140919T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1241 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* A HIGHLY MOISTENED TROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT
OVER REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AN AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS IN RECENT DAYS. SHORT DURATION RAIN RATES COULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE STRONGER SLOWER MOVING CELL CLUSTERS TO
QUICKLY CREATE FLOODING SCENARIOS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS.

* COMMUNITIES THAT RECEIVE GREATER THAN 2 TO 3 INCHES OF HOURLY
RAINFALL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING FLOODING. GREATER
THAN 4 INCH 6 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CREATE FLOODING
ISSUES.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:49 pm

Maybe this one will last longer than three hours.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:11 pm

The Weather Prediction Center as adjusted the Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall into SE Texas.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:20 pm

This is what stinks about tropical storm season; when you're dealing with one of the "unexciting" ones, it gives you nasty, muggy warm weather, occasional showers maybe, and boxes out cold fronts for 7-10 days.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:23 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
116 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TXC201-172015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0140.140917T1816Z-140917T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
116 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 114 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. 1.04 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AT THE HARRIS COUNTY
RAIN GAGE AT BUFFALO BAYOU AND DAIRY ASHFORD IN JUST 15 MINUTES.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 200 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...MIDTOWN HOUSTON...FOURTH
WARD...GREATER THIRD WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...SECOND WARD...
NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...ASTRODOME AREA...SPRING VALLEY...DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...SPRING BRANCH WEST...GREENWAY /
UPPER KIRBY AREA...AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...UNIVERSITY PLACE
AND MACGREGOR.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:32 pm

The 15Z HRRR is suggesting a much further S track of the remnants of Odile into Texas ~vs~ New Mexico and even 'hints' at a potential core rain event developing NW of the Hill Country during the overnight hours as the NW flow aloft captures the mid level vortex and pushes it SE.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:44 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
142 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-180245-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-
FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...
LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...
SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
142 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF WHARTON THIS
AFTERNOON. PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
FUNNEL CLOUD FORMATION WITHIN THIS HIGHLY MOIST TROPICAL AIR
MASS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ONE
OF THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS COULD EXTEND TO THE SURFACE AS A WEAK
TORNADO.

PLEASE REPORT ANY FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTINGS TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:47 pm

.62" from the brief shower earlier today. It must have rained pretty hard since it was so brief. Most rain in a month. At least the pine needles are dust are cleared out now

Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:53 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
149 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TXC039-157-167-201-172045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0141.140917T1849Z-140917T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
149 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 146 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SUGAR LAND TO PEARLAND TO GALVESTON. A QUICK 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE ADVISORY AREA BY 230
PM. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...GALVESTON
ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...GALVESTON ISLAND EAST END...
TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...NORTHWESTERN ROSENBERG...ALVIN...
DICKINSON...STAFFORD...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...RICHMOND...
HITCHCOCK...MANVEL...FRESNO AND PECAN GROVE.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:07 pm

Forecaster Roth offer his Updated Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and now includes all of SE Texas and a portions of Central and SW Louisiana in the Slight Risk category.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...VALID 18Z WED SEP 17 2014 - 00Z FRI SEP 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LARGE SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE MAINTAINED ON THE LATEST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS PERIOD, PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
ODILE. WELL TO THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION, A MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN
CA/SOUTHERN NV---EASTWARD INTO AZ---NM AND THROUGH TX. OBSERVED
PW VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE (NEAR
RECORD VALUES) FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS OF AN
ISSUE TODAY AS AREAS OF NORTHERNMOST MEXICO, WESTERN TX, AND
SOUTHEAST NM HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO DAYTIME HEATING, WHICH HAS
INCREASED MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES TO ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG PER THE
MOST RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS.

CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 3" ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITH THIS REGION. THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
OFFICE REPORTED RAIN RATES OF 1.28" IN 30 MINUTES WITHIN THE
INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED LATE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AZ---SOUTHERN NM---LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 5-8" IN THIS REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES CONCERNING EXACTLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS ACROSS TEXAS. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE EMPHATIC
ACROSS THIS AREA, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION HAS PREVENTED THE
INCLUSION OF A MODERATE RISK. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PW
AXIS AND MODEL FORECASTS OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMUM UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS---FAVOR THE IDEA OF
SPREADING HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EASTWARD
QUICKER. WHILE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT MUCH PRECIPITATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CA
INTO SOUTHERN NV AND NW AZ---SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY AGAIN
ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:30 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The 15Z HRRR is suggesting a much further S track of the remnants of Odile into Texas ~vs~ New Mexico and even 'hints' at a potential core rain event developing NW of the Hill Country during the overnight hours as the NW flow aloft captures the mid level vortex and pushes it SE.]

Yeah and it continues this way through 08:00 UTC... and looks like it will continue well into tomorrow.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:40 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
209 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TXC167-201-172015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0142.140917T1909Z-140917T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-
209 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 208 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. CLOVER FIELD IN PEARLAND REPORTED 1.23 INCHES IN 29 MINUTES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN PASADENA...NORTHEASTERN PEARLAND...NORTHEASTERN LEAGUE
CITY...NORTHERN FRIENDSWOOD...SOUTH HOUSTON...WEBSTER...CLEAR
LAKE...SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...GREATER HOBBY AREA...NASSAU BAY...
GOLFCREST / BELLFORT / REVEILLE...HOBBY AIRPORT...EDGEBROOK AREA...
THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER...ELLINGTON FIELD...MINNETEX AND
MEADOWBROOK / ALLENDALE.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:45 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 217 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN HOBBY AIRPORT
AND FRIENDSWOOD IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 300 PM. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WESTERN PASADENA...PEARLAND...SOUTHWESTERN LEAGUE CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD...ALVIN...WEBSTER...MANVEL...CLEAR LAKE...SOUTH BELT /
ELLINGTON...GREATER HOBBY AREA...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...IOWA COLONY...
HOBBY AIRPORT...EDGEBROOK AREA...MINNETEX...SOUTH ACRES / CRESTMONT
PARK...ELLINGTON FIELD...SUNNYSIDE...SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHEASTERN
CENTRAL SOUTHWEST.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:08 pm

Flash Flood Watch coming for Central Texas along and N of HWY 71 shortly.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:16 pm

Man! Thanks for keeping us up to date, srain.

We are currently experiencing thunder and sprinkles. May be an interesting evening.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:22 pm

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/17/14 2020Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2000Z JS
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...POSSIBLE GREATER ORGANIZATION SETTING UP WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS HAVE FORMED IN FAVORABLE REGION
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
PROFILES/OBSERVATIONAL DATA ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP MOISTURE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS RUNNING FROM THE MID TO HIGH 70'S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM RECENT MICROWAVE AND GPS DATA NEAR 2.3" WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
POINTING TOWARD AN INDIRECT CONNECTION TO THE MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM ODILE. THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH
THE MATURE CELLS LIKELY PRODUCING 2-3"/HR AND EVEN BRIEFLY HIGHER THAN
3"/HR ISOLATED RATES.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2015-0215Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...VISIBLE ANIMATION HAS SHOWN CONVERGENCE IN THE CU
FIELD INTO GROWING AREA OF CONVECTION FROM THE SW AND FROM THE NE. THIS IS
LEADING TO MORE CELL/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND GREATER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
WITH SOME INDICATION OF A POSSIBLE WEDGE SIGNATURE FORMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR 2 NEAR AND NW OF HOUSTON. WITH HIGH ESTIMATED/OBSERVED RAIN RATES
OF 2-3"/HR, CERTAINLY BELIEVE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED 2-4"
TOTALS IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK BUILD INLAND TO THE NW TOWARD THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND ALIGN ITSELF PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. AT THIS TIME,
WITH THE LACK OF FOCUSED INFLOW, BELIEVE THE THREAT FROM THIS PARTICULAR
ROUND WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND LIKELY LAST FOR ONLY THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY GIVEN THE
OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND THE
PRESENCE OF VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH INDIRECT CONNECTION TO ODILE.
.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Pretty amazing to see so much moisture stream into the area when most of the upper level winds are coming out of the SW or NW. Some pretty impressive advection of moisture from the Pacific and tomorrow looks to be the most active of days. For the rest of this evening (in SE Texas at least) expect scattered activity but places that get hit will get hit hard. Tomorrow looks a little more interesting as we have more upper level support to help enhance storm activity.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:26 pm

I've already had a good soaking here in the last 2 hours. Around an inch of rain here. Curious as to how the nighttime hours are gonna play out as I will be out on the road tonight in SE Texas.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:26 pm

Reformed again *just* to my east. I can almost touch it.

September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

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