September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:21 pm

It's getting a bit worrisome to see the amount of rainfall suggested by the short range meso and medium range global guidance. If they are correct, areas across Northern Mexico into Southern New Mexico and across the El Paso/Midland/Odessa/San Angelo/Austin and Houston Metro areas could see some rather significant totals until the next front pushes in sometime on Sunday and clears us out.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:25 pm

Skipped all around me. Again.

I will not fall for another forecast of heavy rains.
I will not fall for another forecast of heavy rains.
I will not fall for another forecast of heavy rains.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:34 pm

You must be near me. I just drove down Rayford and it was raining in one section of it but not near the end (near Riley Fuzzel) or at 45. On the way back, it was raining on sections of 45 but still dry at home.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:56 pm

HGX reports a funnel cloud has been spotted 3 mile W of Arcola near the Fort Bend Toll RD and HWY 6.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:14 pm

HGX reports another funnel cloud spotted 4 SE of El Campo in Wharton County.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:34 pm

jasons wrote:Skipped all around me. Again.

I will not fall for another forecast of heavy rains.
I will not fall for another forecast of heavy rains.
I will not fall for another forecast of heavy rains.

The one day I don't want to rain, it pours...

Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:29 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXC201-162315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0138.140916T2110Z-140916T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
410 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 407 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SO FAR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN. AREA RAIN GAUGES HAVE REPORTED 1.4 TO 1.9 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 30 MINUTES MAINLY NEAR EAST OF KATY TO MEYERLAND. HOURLY
RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...
BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...GALENA PARK...JACINTO
CITY...WEBSTER...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...
PINEY POINT VILLAGE...CLEAR LAKE...FOURTH WARD...GREATER THIRD
WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...SECOND WARD AND NEARTOWN / MONTROSE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:59 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
450 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXC015-473-162345-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0139.140916T2150Z-140916T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-
450 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 448 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. SO FAR 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN MAINLY
FROM NORTH OF BROOKSHIRE TO BELLVILLE. HOUR RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KATY...BROOKSHIRE...BELLVILLE...SAN FELIPE...PATTISON...INDUSTRY...
CAT SPRING AND MONAVILLE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:31 pm

Enjoyed 2 gentle rain showers today. The rain gauge says we got 0.08 inches so far.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:41 pm

I got some Light rainfall at the house today, but it wasn't too far from me where a couple of inches rain fell. I'm thinking before this event is done, everyone will see at least 1-2 bouts of heavy rainfall if not more. Hopefully those in a bit of a dry spell can benefit from this.

Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:29 pm

.11"

31.34" for the year.

64% of that - 19.93" inches, was in May and June alone.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:58 am

Encouraging for widespread rainfall amounts across SE Texas.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:40 am

60% chance of heavy rain today and tomorrow across SE TX today some area may receive 3-4" totals leading to localized flooding. Currently the radar is quiet however deep tropical moisture continues across the area and into Central TX along with Odile's remnants. Some areas of Central TX may receive isolated total of 5" leading to some flooding. Thunderstorm chances lessen but still in the forecast for the weekend. The next cool front looks to arrive in NTX Sunday evening and SE TX Monday bringing some cooler and drier air.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:30 am

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
715 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 17 2014 - 12Z THU SEP 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LARGE SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE MAINTAINED ON THE LATEST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY
THIS PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF ODILE AND WELL TO
THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION IN THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS
THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV---EASTWARD INTO
AZ---NM AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OBSERVED PW VALUES ACROSS
THESE AREAS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE THE 99 PERCENTILE FOR
SEPTEMBER---WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD TO THESE VALUES. THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ---SOUTHERN
NM---LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THESE AREAS. FARTHER TO
THE EAST FROM THESE AREAS--THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD WITH HOW
QUICKLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE MORE EMPHATIC ACROSS THIS AREA---BUT STILL
HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT NORTH-SOUTH DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE AXES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE--BUT WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED HIGH PW AXIS AND MODEL FORECASTS OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMUM IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS---FAVOR THE HI RES IDEA OF SPREADING
HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EASTWARD QUICKER.
WHILE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT MUCH PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN NV
AND NW AZ---SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THESE
AREAS--WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:37 am

It was pea soup outside earlier this morning. (Mmmmmmm! Pea soup!)

Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:47 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
501 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171400-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
501 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SURFACE HEATING. EVEN
THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO DECREASE AT NIGHT
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
MOIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN AND
FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:41 am

Nice graphics. I'll believe it when my rain gauge has more than a few pine needles in it.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:45 am

Pouring rain in NW Harris County now.

Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:11 am

Last evening two outflow boundaries (one from the north and one from the southeast) collided over Austin and helped create showers/storms that dropped anywhere from a tenth of an inch to close to an inch across the general metro area. Parts of southern Williamson County (Round Rock) received a little more than an inch.

We're hopeful for more activity later today and tomorrow. EWX bullish on rain chances with 70% POPs areawide for us. Area dewpoints in the mid 70s ... crazy!

Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:13 am

HGX AFD Mid Morning Update:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171607
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1107 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER MORNING COLLABORATION WITH WPC...THERE HAS BEEN AN ONGOING
ADJUSTMENT OF OUR POPS/WX/QPF GRIDS. THE MAIN THEME IS FOR THE
THREAT OF MORE AREA-WIDE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING. THE
CLUSTERS THAT HAVE PASSED ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWEST HARRIS COUNTY HAVE
DROPPED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...WITH AN
EXAMPLE OF AN INCH WITHIN 15 MINUTES AT THE CYPRESS CREEK AT FM
249 HCFCD RAIN GAUGE. CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING WITHIN A HIGHLY MOIST TROPICAL-IN-NATURE AIR MASS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PUTTING DOWN HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS/RATES OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FFG HAS HOURLY RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES
LEADING TO FLOODING CONCERNS...THREE TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS OVER 3
TO 6 HOURS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD THREAT...AS WELL.
IN GENERAL...RECENT HIGH RAINFALL RATES/HIGHER RELATIVE-VOLUMETRIC
SOIL CONTENT VALUES RESIDE OVER THOSE COUNTIES EAST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE CITY SO...ALONG WITH HOUSTON METRO/SUBURBS...THESE WILL BE
THE AREAS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE FLOODING ISSUES. POINTS
SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS CAN HANDLE MORE RAINFALL...BUT WITH
THESE RECENTLY HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF BETWEEN A HALF OF AN
INCH TO NEAR NEAR TWO INCHES...ANY COMMUNITY COULD BE IN THE HAT
IN DEALING WITH (FLASH) FLOODING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED...OVERCAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE EXTREMA IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORNING READINGS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S. 31

September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

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