ENSO Updates

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Cooling in all regions, while Region 3 is constant. I would think with Super Typhoon Neoguri, it would create westerlies.

[Ptarmigan]

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 12 – July 2014 Update – The Feedbacks Need to Kick in Soon
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/07 ... k-in-soon/

He writes series about El Nino. This developing El Nino could die off if atmospheric feedback does not kick in.

[Ptarmigan]

Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Cooling in all regions, except for Region 4.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index Values
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... tionindex/

SOI values for 14 Jul 2014Average for last 30 days -7.9
Average for last 90 days 0.8
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 0.1

Monthly average SOI values
April 6.4
May 4.3
June -0.8

SOI has dropped into negative territory as it increases chance for El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

The large warm pool is shrinking. However, warm appears to be growing in Central and Western Pacific.


The current Euro forecast for Region 3.4 did show some cooling. It forecasts El Nino by Fall.



April 2014 Euro Forecast

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Warming in Region 1+2, 3, and 4. Cooling in Region 3.4.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index Values
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -6.0
Average for last 90 days 1.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -0.7

Monthly average SOI values
April 6.4
May 4.3
June -0.8

SOI has risen again.

[Ptarmigan]

What’s the hold up, El Niño?
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... -ni%C3%B1o



There is less SST gradient, so weaker winds.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled, except for Region 1+2.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have cooled. Region 3.4 is still the same, while Region 4 has warmed. El Nino is cooling.

[Ptarmigan]

What is missing? Sustained westerly wind bursts. The water off the coast of Indonesia is quite warm, which means less gradient.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have cooled. Region 3.4 is still the same, while Region 4 has warmed. El Nino is cooling.

Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have warmed with the exception of Region 3.

[Ptarmigan]

Despite what the SST and SOI says, I think El Nino is developing.







Also, the Pacific is very active.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 are unchanged, while Region 3 and 4 have warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 warmed, while Region 3 and 4 have stayed the same.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled, while Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.

[Kludge]

Wow... 1+2 cooled a Bunch... any thoughts?

[Ptarmigan]

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is dropping.

[sambucol]

What does that mean in terms of the rest of the hurricane season, Ptarmigan?

[jeff]

It really does not mean much for the rest of the ATL season. It is clear while all the indicies are somewhat lagging that the actual affect of warm phase ENSO is clearly being shown across both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Expect continued above average TC activity in the EPAC and below average in the Atlantic.

Good news is that a wet fall/winter appears fairly likely for the drought plagued southern plains and TX....while conditions locally are not as horrible as they were in the spring....it is still really bad across C TX.