Possibly Two Tropical Cyclone Impacting Hawaii This Week

[srainhoutx]

After doing some research and chatting with wxman57, we found that the Hawaiian Island Chain has never received a direct hit from a Hurricane from the E/ESE. The only known dying TC to hit from the E was a Not Named storm on August 8, 1958 that was a rapidly weakening TD that made landfall near Hilo. The only known direct Hurricane strikes to Hawaii have come from the S and SSE Iniki/1992 CAT 4 and Dot/1959 CAT 1, which struck the Island of Kauai. Iwa 1982 passed just NW of Kauai, but missed. There have been Tropical Storms pass N and S of the Island chain.

An interesting and potentially historic week ahead, tropically speaking for Hawaii. The last 12 suite of operational Global guidance suggest a rather strong TS Iselle will make its approach late Thursday into Friday from an Easterly direction. While the intensity remains very uncertain, there is warmer water E of Hawaii that may keep Iselle a bit stronger and possibly allow for a steady state as it approaches.

The global guidance is suggesting Julio may fair a bit better and provide for a stronger cyclone as it approaches Hawaii on Sunday from a ESE direction, slightly S of the Iselle expected track and receive the benefit of enhanced moisture throughout the column in the wake of Iselle. The intensity guidance is split between a stronger 100 kt cyclone to a near 70 kt cyclone. The NHS is taking a reasonable conservative approach and with additional data arriving particularly from the G-IV tasked missions this week, we should see some changes in what may well be two cyclones passing very near or over the Hawaiian Islands with a matter of 3-4 days later this week into the upcoming weekend.

[srainhoutx]

MIMIC suggests Hurricane Iselle weakened slightly over night, but the inner core has completely wrapped around the center of circulation again and remains a very strong small intense cyclone that should reduce the chances of dry air intrusion into the inner core. The track has shift slightly S with the overnight guidance suggesting a potential strike to the Big Island of Hawaii may be likely during Thursday into Friday. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will take over responsibility of forecasting and issuing advisories at 18Z today.



http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

TS Julio is moving rapidly to the W and Northeasterly shear has inhibited convection from wrapping around the Eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The shear is expect to decrease later today into tomorrow and allow for Julio to strengthen as the Ridge to the N builds allowing for a western motion to continue. The latest guidance is suggesting an approaching trough after Iselle passes Hawaii will pull Julio a bit to the NW prior to making its final approach to the Hawaiian Island this weekend. The intensity guidance continues to advertise Julio will achieve Hurricane status E of Hawaii and maintain Hurricane intensity as it passes just NW of the Island Chain. Expect additional changes in both track and intensity as the G-IV missions currently tasked provide additional information which should greatly improve the guidance data over the next couple of days.

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii as Iselle makes its approach tomorrow. Hurricane Julio further E has seen its track shift steadily S with the data provided by the NOAA G-IV missions providing additional data from the upper air conditions ahead and around these two unusual Tropical Cyclones tracking from the ESE.

[BlueJay]

Thoughts and prayers to our Hawaii!

[kayci]

Hang in there paradise.

[sleetstorm]

This is interesting, two tropical cyclones that are making history, or at least that appears to be the case. My thoughts & prayers go out to all of the citizens of Hawaii.

[srainhoutx]

Iselle continues to churn WNW around 17 MPH and is currently located about 305 miles ESE of Hilo. Iselle weakened overnight, but a resent satellite pass indicated a convective burst N of the center. Waves near and above 15 feet can be expected on the East facing beaches of the Big Island as Iselle approaches later today.

Julio did strengthen overnight and is now a CAT 2 Hurricane and should continue to track generally W to WNW. The latest track guidance has once again been shifted S and suggests that Julio will no longer turn to the NW as the Central Pacific Ridge is stronger than earlier forecasts suggested. A G-IV mission is tasked for this afternoon to sample the upper air environment ahead and around Iselle and Julio. I would not be surprised to see additional adjustments with the future track as additional data arrives.

[kayci]

And now those poor people just got hit by an earthquake. (According to Channel 2)

[BlueJay]

http://www.click2houston.com/news/2-hur ... i/27349618