August 2014 - Showers/Storms Possible To End The Month

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 218 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN
AND AROUND THE CITY OF HOUSTON. BELTWAY 8 BETWEEN INTERSTATE 45
AND U.S. 59 IS CLOSED... ALL MAINLANES. HIGH WATER HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT BELTWAY 8 SOUTH AND ALTERNATE 90. HIGH WATER HAS ALSO
BEEN REPORTED AT INTERSTATE 10 EAST AND ALTERNATE 90. THREE TO SIX
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. AREAS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING
RAINFALL CAN EXPECT RAIN RATES IN THE TWO TO THREE AND A HALF INCH
PER HOUR RANGE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...NORTHERN PEARLAND...NORTHEASTERN SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI
CITY...DEER PARK...STAFFORD...SOUTH HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...JERSEY
VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...FOURTH WARD...GREATER THIRD WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD AND
ALDINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

[djjordan]

Early morning update from the NWS regarding Flooding situation. Stay aware as the flooding potential moves south!!!!

[wxman57]

I measured 3.54" overnight.

[srainhoutx]

I did a bit of quick research and not taking into account of the current ENSO state (La Nina/El Nino be they weak, neutral or strong) but strictly based off the Day 11+ issued July 31st with the top 10 Analogs years that are somewhat correlated with the current upper air pattern regime...and this is what those analogs suggest...tropical cyclone wise. There are some notable Hurricanes within those analog years. Does it mean that we will experience a tropical cyclone this year across the Gulf? Certainly not. The analogs just offer clues to past weather patterns and what happened across the Tropical North Atlantic Basin.

CPC Day 11+ Analogs:

07312014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif

1975 NATL Hurricane Tracks:

08012014 1975 NALT Hurricanes 1280px-1975_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

1958:

08012014 1958_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

1985:

08012014 1985 1280px-1985_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

2005:

08012014 2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

1951:

08012014 1951_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

2008:

08012014 2008 2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

1983:

08012014 1983 1280px-1983_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

1991:

08012014 1991 1280px-1991_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

1999:

08012014 1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

1961:

08012014 1961 1280px-1961_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

[BlueJay]

Very impressive maps, srain! I indeed do remember some of those weather years. Does anyone know if these maps are used for future tropical forecasting or are they for historical value only?

[jasons2k]

Very impressive maps, srain! I indeed do remember some of those weather years. Does anyone know if these maps are used for future tropical forecasting or are they for historical value only?

Well it depends on what you mean by a 'forecast'. They can be useful to identify patterns or trends that are more common during years when the upper air patterns, at this time of year, are similar, to help identify areas more favorable for tropical development. You can take it a step further and correlate it to years with similar ENSO patterns, the MJO, SST Anomalies, etc. to see where areas may be more favored for development.

Real-time, for forecasting a storm already out there, they can be useful to look at patterns in the same way, especially to see if the models correlate to 'reality'. Sometimes when a model is off-looking, you look for correlations to the upper air analysis to understand why either it's an error, or it's onto something. Is this 'one off' scenario even plausible? Basically, they are clues, and one in a toolset of models and other data to develop a 'forecast'.

I'll never forget Elena in 1985. It was one year after I moved from Tampa to Savannah. I don't recall so much TV coverage for one storm before, because it was in the gulf for days and days. Imagine if that track and stall were a bit more to the SE on the west coast of Florida - yikes.

[BlueJay]

Thank you so much for your fine explanation jasons! I will keep this in mind as our hurricane season unfolds.

[Ptarmigan]

I did a bit of quick research and not taking into account of the current ENSO state (La Nina/El Nino be they weak, neutral or strong) but strictly based off the Day 11+ issued July 31st with the top 10 Analogs years that are somewhat correlated with the current upper air pattern regime...and this is what those analogs suggest...tropical cyclone wise. There are some notable Hurricanes within those analog years. Does it mean that we will experience a tropical cyclone this year across the Gulf? Certainly not. The analogs just offer clues to past weather patterns and what happened across the Tropical North Atlantic Basin.

1961, 1983, 2005, and 2008 had hurricanes hit Southeast Texas. Three were Category 3 or above, Carla, Alicia, and Rita. Ike was Category 2, but very large.

Developing El Nino
1958
1985
1991

Developing La Nina
1951
1975
1983
1999
2005
2008

Neutral
1961

Most of the analogs occurred in developing La Nina, which is not happening.


Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Phase

Warm PDO Phase
1983
1985
1991
2005

Cool PDO Phase
1951
1958
1961
1975
1999
2008

Despite the warm PDO due to El Nino, I think we are still in cool PDO phase.


Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Phase

Warm AMO Phase
1951
1958
1961
1999
2005
2008

Cool AMO Phase
1983
1985
1975
1991

Most are in warm AMO, which we are in right now.

[BlueJay]

That is a lot of fascinating info there ptarmigan! It will be interesting to see how 2014 fits into the picture.

It August 2nd and it's a very chilly 69F this morning! Brrrrrrr!

[srainhoutx]

One more comfortable day with an general offshore flow and cloudiness as a weak surface low/wave of low pressure near Vermillion Bay, LA and broad mid/upper low near Beaumont begin to meander generally W as the weak flat ridge attempts to build back E, but just does not have the ability to take a strong hold as we have witnessed most of the summer. The stalled diffuse frontal boundary offshore should completely wash out and a return flow off the Gulf will increase during the work week. Tomorrow with the weak surface low/wave over the Gulf, isolated to scattered showers/storms should begin to increase from E to W into Tuesday.

08032014 12Z surface plots 92fwbgus_init_2014080300.gif

Wednesday should see temperatures near our seasonal norms with continued chances for daytime heat of the day showers/storms enhanced by the sea/bay breeze boundaries moving inland.

Looking ahead toward the middle of August, there is growing consensus via the medium/long range guidance that yet another unseasonably strong shot of cooler air pushes S from Canada as a deep trough digs south, east of the Rockies and settles along the Gulf Coast. Tropical activity in the Western Pacific as well as the anomalous warm pool of water across the North Pacific continues to suggest that a general pattern of a West Coast Ridge with little in the way of relief in there long term drought, the monsoonal pattern continuing across the Eastern Half of Arizona into New Mexico, which has seen much above normal rainfall from the position of the monsoon (remember I commented a couple of months ago I thought the monsoon would be centered more over New Mexico than Arizona) with continued storms firing and riding above the Ridge into Colorado and eventually into the Plains. I still do not see temperatures approaching that 100F mark across the Coastal Plains of the NW and Central Gulf Coast at this time.

[Ptarmigan]

One more comfortable day with an general offshore flow and cloudiness as a weak surface low/wave of low pressure near Vermillion Bay, LA and broad mid/upper low near Beaumont begin to meander generally W as the weak flat ridge attempts to build back E, but just does not have the ability to take a strong hold as we have witnessed most of the summer. The stalled diffuse frontal boundary offshore should completely wash out and a return flow off the Gulf will increase during the work week. Tomorrow with the weak surface low/wave over the Gulf, isolated to scattered showers/storms should begin to increase from E to W into Tuesday.

08032014 12Z surface plots 92fwbgus_init_2014080300.gif

Wednesday should see temperatures near our seasonal norms with continued chances for daytime heat of the day showers/storms enhanced by the sea/bay breeze boundaries moving inland.

Looking ahead toward the middle of August, there is growing consensus via the medium/long range guidance that yet another unseasonably strong shot of cooler air pushes S from Canada as a deep trough digs south, east of the Rockies and settles along the Gulf Coast. Tropical activity in the Western Pacific as well as the anomalous warm pool of water across the North Pacific continues to suggest that a general pattern of a West Coast Ridge with little in the way of relief in there long term drought, the monsoonal pattern continuing across the Eastern Half of Arizona into New Mexico, which has seen much above normal rainfall from the position of the monsoon (remember I commented a couple of months ago I thought the monsoon would be centered more over New Mexico than Arizona) with continued storms firing and riding above the Ridge into Colorado and eventually into the Plains. I still do not see temperatures approaching that 100F mark across the Coastal Plains of the NW and Central Gulf Coast at this time.

Another cold front in the heart of August. I have never seen so many cold fronts in a summer. The last time was in 2004. I wonder if one of those cold front passes and stalls out over the Gulf of Mexico. We all know what happened in August 1983.

[mckinne63]

Sure have enjoyed these cooler temps! I can't recall the last time I stepped out my door in August and said "wow, feels nice out here."

[tireman4]

2004 perhaps?

[BlueJay]

We received a dab of rain around 6'ish this evening. Nice but nothing measurable. We need some rain, but I am very mindful to be careful for that which you wish...

Its August 4th with a high of 93F and a low of 74F.

No complaints.

[Katdaddy]

A 20% chance of afternoon thunderstorms through the rest of the week. Scattered offshore showers and thundershowers are moving toward the coastal areas currently.

[srainhoutx]

We are getting a very heavy thundershower across NW Harris County at this time.

[Texaspirate11]

1-45 and UH area got lots of rain too

[BlueJay]

I am not getting lots of rain at this time. (SAD!)

[srainhoutx]

1 inch in the rain gauge from the heavy thundershower today. The pattern looks to continued throughout the week with scattered sea/bay breeze storms cross the area during peak heating.

The guidance today does suggest a weakness or inverted trough developing late this week that may enhance rainfall chances. The Medium range guidance continues to advertise a trough and attending frontal boundary sliding S early next week and may provide for cooler temperatures and increased area wide rain chances. We will see.

[Katdaddy]

Another day of scattered tropical showers and thundershowers. Already seeing development along the coast and offshore.