June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[BlueJay]

The official start of hurricane season will begin on June 1, 2014. So far 2014 has acted differently than previous years. We shall see what happens next!

[srainhoutx]

I'll offer sort of a spoiler alert for the June thread. Keep an eye on the upper pattern of reoccurring Western troughs that are slow moving as well as the tropical Pacific and Western Gulf/NW Caribbean Sea. There is growing suggestions from various Global guidance that some form of tropical trouble could spin up from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Bay Of Campeche or NW Caribbean as the monsoonal trough slowly lifts N and robust moisture streams across Mexico as the sub tropical jet remains active. Another meandering upper low may also offer additional chance for rainfall across our Region. A +PDO and developing El Nino tends to keep us a bit cooler and wetter than average.

[BlueJay]

Maybe I won't need the soaker hose for a while! That would be nice.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z global guidance as well as the ensembles suggest the upper Ridge expected to build over Mexico will be rather flat in the early June time frame and then shift a bit W leaving a weakness across the central and Eastern portions of Texas. It is also note worthy that the global suite of guidance does indicate the potential for a broad area of low surface pressure to develop extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. This broad monsoonal gyre may develop a weak tropical system next week that would likely fester for several day as the steering currents remain very weak and generally light Westerly's control the EPAC and extreme Western Atlantic Basin. There is some indication that the Bermuda Ridge may strengthen a bit and a general 'blocky pattern' remains in place across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise the monsoonal gyre near the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EPAC) and the Bay Of Campeche (SW Gulf) may need to be watched a bit more closely. The NHC is suggesting that tropical development is likely in about 5 days near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and a potential secondary surface low developing the Bay of Campeche within the broad are of low pressure. Since the system appears to be weak and the placement of the upper Ridge across Mexico may not be as strong as expected, rain chance could increase across portions of Coastal Texas and Louisiana later next week.

[jasons2k]

Pretty sloppy setup now with the trough elongated and drifting. On water vapor, it looks like two circulations are along it - one in NC Louisiana and the more dominant one offshore East of Brownsville spinning away to the SW.

I noticed the low level clouds were racing from east to west, which is different that from the NW and West the past couple of days. Will be interesting to see if the sun can get things going today.

I had another .42" yesterday. I finished May with 12.37". Not bad after only .07" for all of April!

19.44" for the year so far. Almost 2/3 of that fell in May.

[redneckweather]

It's time to put May in the past and welcome the 1st day of Hurricane Season! Most hurricane forecasters are saying it will be a slow season, mainly do to the stregthening El Nino but this makes me uneasy. Let's don't forget we had I believe 4 majors hit the US coastline in 2004. This year I would look for close in homegrown development in the Gulf of Mexico/Western Caribbean. Just my worthless 2 cents on the matter.

My house missed all the rain yesterday which I'm thankful for. I needed a day to dry out. Now I'm hoping that I get a storm to sit on top of me today before things really start to dry out n heat up going into next week.

[cperk]

Looks like the season is starting on cue.
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated and nearly stationary area of low pressure located over
the Bay of Campeche extends northeastward into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although shower activity is currently disorganized,
some slow development of this disturbance is possible this week as
environmental conditions become marginally conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20

[jasons2k]

YTD Rainfall at IAH just popped above normal:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/rtimages/hgx ... 14plot.png

[Karen]

I think Gulf development is unlikely, (East Pac seems favored) if it does occurs, it likely will be weak, and well East. And the bitterly cold Winter still has cast a cool shadow on our part of the Gulf, which may not be a bad thing if we can talk TS or Cat 1 hurricanes during the prime time of the season, all the forum fun, with coastal residents not losing homes.

With all due respect Ed. those of us who live on the coast would have alot of damage from flooding. I have lived in Friendswood since 1976 all of the flooding here accord during Tropical storms there just is not enough steering to move these storms along. I am hoping for not tropical activity this year.

[ticka1]

I think Gulf development is unlikely, (East Pac seems favored) if it does occurs, it likely will be weak, and well East. And the bitterly cold Winter still has cast a cool shadow on our part of the Gulf, which may not be a bad thing if we can talk TS or Cat 1 hurricanes during the prime time of the season, all the forum fun, with coastal residents not losing homes.

With all due respect Ed. those of us who live on the coast would have alot of damage from flooding. I have lived in Friendswood since 1976 all of the flooding here accord during Tropical storms there just is not enough steering to move these storms along. I am hoping for not tropical activity this year.

Me too. My countdown is now for november 30th

[BlueJay]

For my backyard the June 2014 "score" is:
Wet & Wild - 0
High & Dry - 1

[cisa]

The skies positively opened up on me twice todayin Humble/Kingwood/Porter, then went to my son's house in Atascocita and it didn't rain a drop. Go figure.

[wxman57]

Just over 10" of rain in Wesstbury for May. Having to mow my lawn every 4-5 days. Cold and wet was my perception of May. June is starting out the same.

[kayci]

Well, I really enjoyed the rain while it lasted, and I wouldn't mind more.

Oh and BTW Ed, 24 lives were taken by that tornado in Moore, OK. I think your comment was very insensitive.

[BlueJay]

Had a surprise pop-up shower at lunch time. 0.03 inches IMBY!

WET & wild - 1
Hot & dry - 1

The "score" is tied.

[srainhoutx]

That old pesky upper low that has meandered for well over a week and a half across our Region looks like it will make one last appearance before the Upper Ridge builds in from Mexico. There is some good news for areas N of us that also have been plagued by a long term drought. A series of troughs with heavy rain and severe storms should develop almost daily as a general Westerly flow aloft crosses the Plains.

[srainhoutx]

There remains a lot of uncertainty in the medium to longer range forecast. The various global ensembles do agree that a festering Bay of Campeche tropical system could develop and meander for several days and possibly beyond a week as that upper pattern continues to be stagnant. What raises an eyebrow is the fact that some of the guidance indicates a weakening and shift upper ridge back further W off the Pacific Coast of Mexico as a deepening Gulf of Alaska low develops a Western trough with embedded short wave upper air disturbances rotating into the 4 Corners Region. What we will need to monitor is if we see a weakness or avenue of generally SE flow off the Gulf and increasing deeper tropical moisture as the days go on. Some of the guidance suggests that anywhere from Tampico to near the Lower Texas Coast could see some sort of weak land falling tropical disturbance in about a week. With increasing easterly’s kicking in and the very little motion as steering currents collapse, it will be worth keeping an eye out for some potential tropical troubles a bit closer to home.

[kayci]

It's coming down here in Alvin! Maybe the pond is gonna fill back up after all!

[kayci]

I'm not sleeping nor dreaming, it's really still coming down here at my work. Am I the lucky 20% for today and also, why is my big grey cloud not showing on radar?? Just wonderin.