May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[Paul Robison]

Good news and bad- GFS shows a decent rain, but it is all post frontal. No FUNderstorms and temps dropping from the 60s into the 50s.


But it would be a decent rain, not a drough shattering rain like 2 members of this forum alone received, but decent.

No FUNderstorms? Does that mean we don't have to worry about excessive lightning or winds exceeding 60 MPH with this front, Ed?

[txflagwaver]

I'll take the rain without the "fun" thanks

[Rip76]

Some sea breeze action today?

[txflagwaver]

Ed Rule??

[jojotheidiotclown]

Getting a little concerned with these below normal temps. I enjoy really warm summers and lots of sun and fun.

Is it possible we don't have a summer? We have seen only a few muggy days. Any chance we don't see 100 this year? The humidity levels are insanely low and looks like this weeks will drop them back down lower.

[mckinne63]

We need the Ed rule to go away. Though I won't mind to much if it doesn't rain Tuesday morning, heading to the airport for vacation. But will welcome any rain we can get.

[Rip76]

Almost IYBY.

The breeze out there tonight is magical.

[Belmer]

Hello Houston!!! I am home for the summer after a very long past 9 months at OU. I forgot just how humid it was down here. After being in such an awful drought up in Oklahoma, humidity hasn't existed up there. Liking the rainfall totals across TX the next couple of days. Unfortunately though, the rain looks to miss the really drought stricken regions of NW TX into the panhandle, and the panhandle of Oklahoma and Western Oklahoma. Lots of wildfires have gone on up there lately and without any decent rain, things will just get worse.

Crossing my fingers though either way for some measurable rainfall and below normal temps this summer.

[Katdaddy]

Some heavy rains look possible across SE TX during the next 24 hours. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for Central TX, portions of NTX and NE TX.

[Cromagnum]

Not liking this one bit.

[unome]

in updated WPC graphic, day 1 potential flash flooding, red area, is moved over our area

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_f ... atfcst.php

excessive rainfall discussion: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpferd

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...VALID 15Z MON MAY 12 2014 - 12Z TUE MAY 13 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 N CMY 10 NNW RRL 30 SW IMT 20 SE SUE 40 ENE MKE 10 E PWK C09
25 NNW PIA MPZ 25 NW AWG 10 SSE IIB 10 N CMY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SSW DRT 35 N JCT 15 ESE RPH 15 W ADH 15 NW OKM 25 E PPF
60 SW SZL 20 NNW AIZ 30 E TBN 30 N BVX 10 ENE LIT 30 SSW ELD
20 ESE JAS 30 NE EFD PKV 10 SSE ALI 10 SSE LRD 60 SSW MMPG
30 SSW DRT.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW MLC 10 SSE GMJ 30 SSW SGF 20 W BPK 30 NE RUE 25 SSE RUE
10 W M89 20 E TXK 20 NNE OCH 15 WNW CXO 35 N VCT 30 ENE COT
25 NNW COT 10 NNE UVA 25 NNW T82 20 SE SEP GYI 10 WSW MLC.


...15Z UPDATE...

UP NORTH WE PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK DOWN AWAY FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND EXPANDED IT INTO MORE OF EASTERN IOWA AND FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT APPEARS THERE WOULD BE ONLY A VERY BRIEF
INTRUSION OF GREATER CAPE/PW TO THE NNW OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW
MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE LENGTHY DURATION OF
WARM/MOIST INFLOW CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING TRAINING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION
WAS ALREADY FOCUSED THIS MORNING ALONG EAST TO WEST BOUNDARIES IN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. BOTH AREAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT NOT BEFORE SOME DIURNAL BOOST TO CAPE
OCCURS.

DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY BRINGING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT AND
MODERATE AREAS FARTHER EAST. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR MORE PROPAGATION
INTO THE INFLOW AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS. DESPITE
DROUGHT OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION AND BROAD RELEASE OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CAPE SUGGESTIVE OF DECENT COLD POOL PROPAGATION...THERE ARE
A NUMBER OF FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING.
NAMELY...FORECASTING SUSTAINED BROAD SCALE INFLOW OF VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR BENEATH SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ATOP LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROFILES. LEADING LINES OF CONVECTION WILL CARRY INTENSE
RAIN RATES...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY EXTENSIVE STRATIFORM REGIONS.
RESISTANCE TO FORWARD MOTION FROM INFLOW WILL BE STRONGEST
INITIALLY OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO FOCUS
PARTICULARLY HEAVY QPF NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE
GREATER CAPE MAY YIELD PARTICULARLY HIGH RAIN RATES...THOUGH MIXED
WITH HAIL. QUICKER FORWARD PROPAGATION IS LIKELY THERE...BUT 2-4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT TIME...CAUSING TROUBLE
FOR URBANIZED AREAS AND FAST RESPONDING STREAMS/CREEKS.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN
LESSER COLD POOL STRENGTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER TRULY UNUSUAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE BROAD SCALE AND NEAR
SIMULTANEOUS RELEASE OF THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WHAT
IS UNUSUAL IS THE BREADTH AND DURATION OF THE EVENT AS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. HENCE...WE MAINTAINED A VERY
BROAD MODERATE RISK.

WE ALSO INVESTIGATED PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION HAD LED TO AREAS OF CONVECTION WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. MODELS FORECAST THE 850-700 MB GRADIENTS TO
ADVECT OUT OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO...WHICH MAY
PREVENT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE UNTIL MORE
PROGRESSIVE ACTIVITY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. WILL WATCH THE MODEL
TRENDS AND COULD INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK IF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT
REMAINS FOCUSED OVER MI/OH. - BURKE

[unome]

HGX updated discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL INTERESTING
FEATURES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
FORT STOCKTON TO ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING ALONG THE FRONT WITH A STRONGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR JAYTON NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850MB FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER A VERY WEAK
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BY YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SURFACE FRONT CATCHES UP TO
IT. EXPECTING THAT SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE
MID 80S. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM FWD AND CRP SHOW A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION AT 700MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE LIFTED OUT BUT
LOCAL AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND THE LCH SOUNDING ARE MORE WEAKLY CAPPED
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CURRENT
FORECAST POPS ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 66 70 55 71 / 50 90 80 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 72 79 59 73 / 40 50 60 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 74 79 66 73 / 30 20 50 50 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...23

[kayci]

Hope I don't jinx it, but I'm really hoping for some minor flooding...

[biffb816]

I've got clean clothes on the line and a new bbq pit project to build, so count on some rain the next few evenings.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/12/14 1826Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1845Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...
LOCATION...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SGF...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...
ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SATELLITE TRENDS FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROF OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING
OUT THROUGH THE N PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAS AMPLIFYING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS TO HOLD TROF AXIS QUASI-STATIONARY. GOES SOUNDER WAS
SHOWING ATMOSPHERE BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE WITH DECREASING INHIBITION
FROM THE E OK/W AR EXTENDING SW TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX. APPARENT
GRAVITY WAVE FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS ALSO SINKING RAPIDLY SE OVER
PORTIONS OF NW LA/E TX WITH THE W END SLOWER MOVING NEAR SAT AND COULD
ALSO PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
.
12Z SOUNDINGS WERE UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
VEERING AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM PORTIONS
OF CNTRL TX EXTENDING NE THROUGH E OK WITH ONLY SLOW E/SE PROGRESS.
WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTALS OF 1.0-3.0" OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY DROPS E/SE.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...12Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION
WERE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH FAT CAPE AND DRY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS WAS SUGGESTIVE THAT LINEAR CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
MODESTLY PROGRESSIVE AND DROP STEADILY E/SE THROUGH NE TX AND W AR.
FURTHER TO THE SW, POTENTIAL WOULD THEN EXIST FOR POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL AND SE TX
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIME PERIOD AND BEYOND. SURGE OF MOISTURE ON
THE BLENDED PW ANALYSIS LIFTING NW FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COULD THEN
INTERACT WITH THE W TAIL OF THIS BOUNDARY. GOES SOUNDER WAS SHOWING
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS UPSTREAM TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND TRAIN E/ESE. SUBTLE IMPULSES EXTENDING FROM N MEXICO W TO
THE BAJA PUSHING SLOWLY E ON THE S EDGE OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD
ALSO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA. WILL UPDATE FURTHER ONCE
THREAT AREA BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

[Andrew]

Beginning to get worried about some training for counties to our NW. RAP overlay shows the front stalling in central Texas overnight. The line of storms is already moving pretty slowly and 850mb moisture propagation (along with satellite data) shows a lot of moisture streaming in from the gulf. Some isolated areas in the central to North part of Texas will probably see 7+ inches of rain. Coverage should only increase overnight as moisture continues to stream into the area. We will have to keep an eye on any mesoscale development overnight.

[srainhoutx]

Beginning to get worried about some training for counties to our NW. RAP overlay shows the front stalling in central Texas overnight. The line of storms is already moving pretty slowly and 850mb moisture propagation (along with satellite data) shows a lot of moisture streaming in from the gulf. Some isolated areas in the central to North part of Texas will probably see 7+ inches of rain. Coverage should only increase overnight as moisture continues to stream into the area. We will have to keep an eye on any mesoscale development overnight.

The greatest area for concern appears to be across South Texas into the Hill Country extending further E into the Brazos River Valley and the Piney Woods of E and NE Texas. The are a couple of features upstream that raise an eyebrow. A jet streak/speed max is rapidly moving toward Mexico as well as another broad area of disturbed weather near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These features should enhance the PW's to around 2 inches this evening. The fly in the ointment is the potential for a South Texas MCV. Some of the guidance has 'sniffed' a surface feature N and W of Corpus Christi near Catulla tomorrow.

[davidiowx]

What are the odds this ends up being a little further South and East? Let's say Houston Metro area wash out? That WV is quite concerning. If that trough digs a little further south than predicted, could it be a flooding problem here?

[Andrew]

What are the odds this ends up being a little further South and East? Let's say Houston Metro area wash out? That WV is quite concerning. If that trough digs a little further south than predicted, could it be a flooding problem here?

Either way we should have a good chance of seeing some good rain totals around here (1-3 inches). Farther North and West of here, better forcing should allow for more widespread heavy rain. Keep in mind though many models have some high totals reaching just west of here overnight. Models and satellite point to the heaviest of rain being just north and west of here, but that is not saying we couldn't see some isolated higher totals around here (especially if a MCV forms).

[srainhoutx]

Due to the slow movement of the frontal boundary and the agreement of the various shorter term meso guidance, the WPC has adjusted the quantitative precipitation forecast slight further E and increased totals a bit. Training storms appear to be a real possibility due to embedded upper air energy advancing from the Baja/NW Mexico and abundant rich low level tropical moisture streaming N from the Western Gulf.