March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

[srainhoutx]

The mid week time frame continues to offer our next shot at rain/storm chances. The 00Z Euro is about 6-8 hours faster with the upper air disturbance currently offshore of California ~vs~ the GFS with that feature crossing Texas and the Southern Plains on Wednesday into early Thursday. The NAM is still a bit too far out to be trusted, but it also is suggesting a dry line and showers/storms developing and moving E to NE. The big concern is if the cap can erode and if we can get some breaks in the clouds for destabilization across Central Texas Wednesday afternoon. the QPF amounts are not that impressive as of this morning, but the SPC is suggesting that portions of the Central/Southern Plains into the Ozarks may still see some severe storms, but not enough consistency in the guidance to offer a highlighted risk area at this time. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Fairly active period shaping up for SE TX over the next few days.

Weak frontal boundary has pushed into the nearshore waters overnight with NNE winds in place and cooler temperatures. Surface high pressure will build into the area later today into Tuesday and then push eastward allowing a strong period of onshore winds to develop (see marine section below). Deep moisture will rapidly return to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as a series of upper level disturbances cross the state. The first disturbance on Tuesday night will likely spawn showers and thunderstorms across the region…at this point severe weather looks marginal, but parameters will need to be watched closely over the next few days.

Stronger system arrives Wednesday night into Thursday with potential for better thunderstorm chances and more widespread rains as a fairly good plume of deep tropical moisture surges inland. Will need to watch this period closely for potential for strong storms and possible heavy rainfall. Not getting overly impressed just yet as global models have been too aggressive on rain chances of late (ie this weekend) and the end result has been less than what the models have been suggesting.

Marine:
Current winds are running 5-20kts across Galveston Bay with a more easterly fetch at Galveston and ENE direction at Morgan’s Point (Galveston Bay Entrance Station, North Jetty, is currently sustained at 17kts gusting to 19kts from the E). Ongoing containment and clean-up efforts in Galveston Bay may be hampered by incoming weather systems this week as current NE winds swing around to the SE and S and really ramp up late Wednesday. Looking at moderate to strong onshore winds by Wednesday evening with speeds in the 15-25mph range producing increasing swell and wave heights. In fact long period swells from long fetch SE winds will likely begin to be felt as early as Thursday and some of this energy with pass into Galveston Bay via the Galveston Channel Entrance (Bolivar Roads). Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible over the spill area from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday with potential for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and cloud to water lightning. Dewpoints will also begin to creep toward the lower to mid 60’s by the mid to late part of the week or above nearshore water temperatures, but current thinking is that stronger SE winds will keep sea fog formation less likely than what has been seen recently.

[BlueJay]

Plentiful pine pollen has powdered the plants and the patio!

A cleansing rain shower would be nice.

[sleetstorm]

I have a few queries. Does this look to be the last cool down for this year's Spring season. Also, what does next month depict temperaturewise.

[Texaspirate11]

Working the Texas Y Collision and I'd like to pass this along:

http://www.gchd.org/press/2014/Galvesto ... ement.html

[Andrew]

Friday definitely looks like the best day for severe weather. Capping looks to way to strong tomorrow but things really get going Friday evening when the eventual dry line gets pushed through by the cold front. 12z NAM-HI Res showed some nice storms popping up around the area around the 21z time-frame on Friday. Furthermore, the GFS goes bonkers with CAPE (3000j/kg range), LI (-10 range) , and even has some semi-decent shear through the bottom half of the atmosphere. Key will be how fast the shortwave on Friday shears out and heads north. I don't know if the gfs has a complete handle on the phasing as it tracks Northeast across the state. If it can stay together long enough we might just have enough PVA across the area to get the lift needed. The other key factor will be the timing of the dry line and if it moves through too early all bets are off. Something definitely to keep an eye on and I wouldn't be surprised if a slight risk for our area (or just east of here) gets issued for Friday.

[mckinne63]

Rain off and on this afternoon in SW Houston/Stafford. Not heavy, not light. No funderstorms for Ed, but I'll take those lovely droplets that were falling. It's all my fault too because I ran my car thru the carwash around lunchtime to get that nasty pollen rinsed off. Rain started about 30 minutes later.

[BlueJay]

I am happy that y'all got some rain mckinne63.
I'm still waiting...

[BlueJay]

I'm still waiting and wishing for a rain washing.

[jasons2k]

Only had .02" today.

It was a very chilly feeling 59 degrees when I left the office at about 6PM. Was not expecting that.

[Andrew]

Friday Slight Risk:

" SPC AC 270559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TX AND THE
ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/MODESTLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER
THE CONUS ON FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/UPPER SPEED MAX OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/NORTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE
MS RIVER VALLEYS...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED/EASTWARD-MOVING
DISTURBANCES LIKELY OVERSPREADING THIS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES...WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD FASHION
/WHILE ACCELERATING/ ACROSS PARTS OF TX/ARKLATEX AND THE MS VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...E/SE TX AND ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST MARITIME-RELATED BOUNDARY LAYER /MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL EXIST WITHIN A BROADENING
WARM/MOIST SECTOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. TO THE WEST OF EARLY DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION/TN VALLEY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONGER-CALIBER TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON IN AREAS SUCH AS EAST-SOUTHEAST TX AND
PARTS OF AR NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT. THIS SCENARIO WILL
LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY ONE OR MORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES/SPEED MAXIMA AS THEY APPROACH THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS.

IN THESE AREAS...AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
/2000-2500 J PER KG MLCAPE AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER/ IS EXPECTED
BY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TX/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...RELATIVELY LONG/SOMEWHAT
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SPLITTING STORMS/SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
IS BELIEVED THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK AS WELL.
WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE/GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
QUASI-LINEAR BANDS/POSSIBLE MCS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AS STORMS SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND RISK BY EVENING ASIDE
FROM SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH VEERED/ONLY MODESTLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO TEMPER THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL."

[unome]

Fri looks more active than today

[Katdaddy]

Amazing to see a supercell and tornadoes in California yesterday evening which is quite rare. Active weather forecast across the southern US today and tomorrow as the Spring severe weather season begins to ramp up. 60% chance of thunderstorms for Houston metro today and 20% tomorrow. I would not be surprised to see the chances increase for tomorrow as SE TX will be under a slight risk area. Hatched area is from Houston NE into LA and AK. which indicates 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. This will likely be the first Spring severe weather event for SE TX should the forecasted heating and instability verify.

[jasons2k]

Just read the AM discussion. This has bust written all over it if u ask me. Might have to actually run the sprinklers to soak in the fertilizer. I will gladly eat a crow buffet if the cap breaks.

[jasons2k]

Gee, what a shocker

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
RECENT LOCAL AREA SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT MID-LEVEL INVERSION
AND DRY UPPER LAYERS THAT POINT TO THE FACT THAT THE THREAT FOR
HEAVIER CONVECTION/THUNDER HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT DRIZZLE...WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS...TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

[Andrew]

Kcll sounding:

[Andrew]

^^ Too bad that is about 100 miles IMBY. Not a bad looking sounding...

Yea, except for the lack of surface CAPE. A full cloud deck over here.

[jasons2k]

New AFD out, 20 pops through tomorrow. I'll be lucky to get .25" at this rate.

[unome]

maybe hail though ?

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0243 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. A SPECIAL 17Z RAOB
NEAR CLL SHOWED THAT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA HAD
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY LEAVING THE AREA WITH LITTLE INHIBITION AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY SUPPORT A RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE
WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD TEMPER LONGEVITY OF
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS AND HAIL SIZE. EVEN WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
INITIATING ABOVE THE SURFACE, SATURATED LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

[srainhoutx]

March is quickly coming to an end and a new month is ahead. April may well bring a change to a much more active weather pattern with a rather deep trough to our W and plentiful Gulf moisture advancing N. Perhaps someone would like to start and April Topic as we head toward those Spring time showers and storms that may help our drought situation across the Lone Star State...