March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:34 am

A very cold morning across SE TX with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s. A strong disturbance will bring a Winter precip threat from Houston and areas to the N and W. The temps will play a critical role for Houston metro. Winter Weather Advisories will likely be issued for portions of SE TX this afternoon. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have already been issued for Central and S Central TX including the San Antonio and Austin areas.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:52 am

Morning from League City as well. We dropped below freezing at 4:45 this morning and riding at 31.6. Amazing how models underestimated the cold associated with this system! I agree that indeed winter wx advisories may go up as early as this morning for parts of the Metro area. Much higher QPF's and significant impacts appear likely over the Hill Country and S/East through Austin and to our North/NW. (>.1" accum) Gotta love the winter of 2013/14.

Second graphic shows WPC really likes the Metro as a bullseye for light freezing rain. (.01" accum)

Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:54 am

ok, it's pretty "liony" :'(

Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:57 am

The 03Z SPC SREF plumes for IAH suggest temps between 29F and 35F by 12Z tomorrow morning suggesting we are right on the cusp of a fairly significant ice event.. The WPC Winter Weather Outlook Desk specifically mentions Central and SE Texas in the increased risk for a potential widespread freezing rain event and the SPC mentions elevated storms with thunder freezing rain and thundersleet as a potential.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:22 am

srainhoutx wrote:The 03Z SPC SREF plumes for IAH suggest temps between 29F and 35F by 12Z tomorrow morning suggesting we are right on the cusp of a fairly significant ice event.. The WPC Winter Weather Outlook Desk specifically mentions Central and SE Texas in the increased risk for a potential widespread freezing rain event and the SPC mentions elevated storms with thunder freezing rain and thundersleet as a potential.

EWX also cautioned folks in their County Warning Area (CWA) that tonight/tomorrow's event very well may be worse than previous events this winter season. Should the convective potential realize, no doubt we''ll see much heavier QPF amounts than previous "light freezing rain" events.

Last time Austin saw real thundersleet was February 2003. Remember it well.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:57 am

30.9F on my station currently, was a little skeptical that we would see freezing here but there it is. A very cold March morning in SE TX. IAH is at 27F with a windchill of 13.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:58 am

So we could see freezing rain in southeast texas tomorrow morning??? I didn't see this coming and it's nov showing on models is that because it's so shallow?

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:05 am

26 this am. BUST!!!

My garden is toast.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:10 am

A chilly 27 here in kingwood ..HGX has me at 33 for a low tonight with a 20% freezing rain then a 70% freezing rain and sleet Tuesday morning

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:10 am

jasons wrote:26 this am. BUST!!!

My garden is toast.

edit - they issued the hard freeze warning at 4am! 4am? What good is that - why even bother? Thanks for the timely warning, NWS.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:13 am

Update from Jeff:

Winter Storm possible tonight into Tuesday for SE TX

Damaging advective freeze in progress nearly all areas this morning

Brutal arctic air mass has moved into the region in the last 12 hours resulting in temperatures falling from the 70’s to the 20’s. Model guidance has been absolutely no use with the overnight temperature fall and was anywhere from 5-8 degrees too warm…the result has been a damaging advective freeze into the region with upper 20’s making it all the way to US 59 and the freezing line near the coast. Northern counties have fallen into the low to mid 20’s and have now been below freezing for up to 12 hours. Cold air mass is firmly entrenched at the surface and will remain in place as the massive arctic high over the northern plains drifts ESE today with north winds continuing to drain cold air southward.

Winter Storm Potential:
Fast upper level flow aloft will quickly bring a strong disturbance currently over the SW US into TX tonight into Tuesday. The result will be moisture moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico along with increasing isentropic lift after midnight tonight. Surface cold air mass is already in place and will see very little modification today with highs maybe reaching near 40 if we can get some breaks in the low cloud deck. Dewpoints have fallen into the low 20’s for most areas and will continue to drop into the teens this afternoon and this evening.

Expect to see precipitation begin to develop after midnight and spread ENE to NE from the Matagorda Bay region and into surface temperatures at or below freezing over portions of the area. Given the forecasted temperature/dewpoint spread early Tuesday morning of about 10 degrees on the GFS and 7 degrees on the NAM there is room for low level evaporative cooling to below freezing even in Houston. Profiles become nearly saturated by 500am suggesting evaporative processes will end and precipitation will begin to be maximized as the shallow dry layer is moistened.

P-type:
Soundings support a shallow sub-freezing surface layer in the 28-32 range over the region mainly along and north of I-10. I am not sure the forecast models have fully grasped the very cold temperatures with this arctic outbreak and could still be running a few degrees too warm which only potentially worsens the threat for freezing rain over a greater part of the area. With warm air pouring northward over the shallow cold dome the main P-type will be freezing rain with possibly a period of sleet mixed in on the front end of the precipitation onset.

It becomes extremely critical where exactly the freezing line establishes tonight into Tuesday morning as this is where the difference between ice and liquid will reside. Current best estimation is along a line from Wharton to Katy to Humble…but it could be as far south as US 59.

Accumulations:
Liquid forecast amounts may average .05 to .25 of an inch across the area with higher amounts near Matagorda Bay of around .40 of an inch. Dynamics aloft are looking impressive so there could be a period of convective enhanced showers which will bump the QPF up some especially west of I-45. Think ice accumulations of up to .10 of an inch will be possible north of a line from Wharton to Tomball to Cleveland.

Impacts:
Impacts will be completely dependent on surface temperatures reaching freezing. While grounds are currently warm…extended period of sub-freezing conditions overnight and cold temperatures today will result in cooling of pavement closer to the air temperatures which may result in ice formation on bridges and overpasses Tuesday morning. Currently think Harris County is right on the border of ice accumulation Tuesday morning and 1-2 degrees will make all the difference. North and west of Harris County ice accumulation on elevated surface including bridges and overpasses looks likely.

A Winter Weather Advisory will likely be issued for portions of the area later this morning or early this afternoon.

Will update again early this afternoon.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:20 am

jasons wrote:
jasons wrote:26 this am. BUST!!!

My garden is toast.

edit - they issued the hard freeze warning at 4am! 4am? What good is that - why even bother? Thanks for the timely warning, NWS.

Actually they issued it at 9:30 PM last evening, but it was too late to do anything. It most certainly is and has been a bust across Texas. I am hearing of people trapped on I-45 between Houston and Dallas due to ice and have been all night.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:26 am

Did not expect to wake up to this... If temperatures are just a tad colder than what the models show, there could be more significant ice accumulations for someone than the last 2 events this year, especially if theres any convective activity.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:29 am

I had a low of 27 when I left the house at 5:30 a.m. this morning and wind is blowing. Will we see winter precip tomorrow? Will we get to the 40's today? Winter returns

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:51 am

ticka1 wrote:I had a low of 27 when I left the house at 5:30 a.m. this morning and wind is blowing. Will we see winter precip tomorrow? Will we get to the 40's today? Winter returns

I am betting we don't get above 36 today in the woodlands. just my guess though

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:59 am

nuby3 wrote:
ticka1 wrote:I had a low of 27 when I left the house at 5:30 a.m. this morning and wind is blowing. Will we see winter precip tomorrow? Will we get to the 40's today? Winter returns
I am betting we don't get above 36 today in the woodlands. just my guess though

Unless the sun breaks through - I think we will be hard pressed to get to 40 degrees. Man like Jeff said in his email - the models have really underestimated this arctic polar blast. Stay safe and keep an eye on the weather for overnight frozen precip if it happens.

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:03 am

Who wants to place bets that Paul will ask about ercot or filling up his generator?

..just kidding paul

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:12 am

The 12Z NAM/WRF is suggesting a Coastal Low/trough developing near Matagorda Bay with convective precip as well as frozen precip developing tomorrow morning across portions of Central and SE Texas.