March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

[Katdaddy]

Watching the cap this afternoon. We had some decent heating under partly cloud skies earlier. Severe weather threat still possible for Houston metro area this evening.

[unome]

Dallas/Fort Worth (FWS)
WSR-88D
Digital Hydrometer Classification
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/?rid=FWS ... es=10&fs=0

it's an experimental product, doesn't always work great, but seems to be doing fine right now

you can select a new radar location & product type, change map, other selections, etc...

[Kingwood31]

The WPC Winter Weather Outlook probabilities just updated and their forecast suggests probabilities are near the 80% chance of freezing rain and sleet mainly N of I-10. The 15Z SPC are a bit more agreesive and suggest chances may be a bit further S. The SPC SREF is also very bullish on freezing rain chances across the Hill Country and the Austin area early Tuesday and are creeping closer to SE Texas with each new update of that meso model. HGX is carefully watching and considering a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of SE Texas later this afternoon or tonight.

So mainly north of I-10? Hmmmmmmm

[srainhoutx]

The front just passed my location in NW Harris County. Winds are gusting to 28 and temps is dropping rapidly from 73F.

[Katdaddy]

Radar is still fairly quiet with light echoes. Winds have become almost calm as the front approaches.

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND AFTER SEEING THE
SOUNDING FROM NEAR HOBBY AIRPORT HAVE DROPPED ANY FURTHER MENTION
OF SEVERE.

[Kingwood31]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND AFTER SEEING THE
SOUNDING FROM NEAR HOBBY AIRPORT HAVE DROPPED ANY FURTHER MENTION
OF SEVERE.

So this was it? Our severe weather was just drizzle? Lol

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E AND NE TX INTO SWRN AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 022136Z - 030130Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF EAST INTO NORTHEAST TX AND SWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS.
MEANWHILE...A COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GREATER SWD
MOVEMENT ACROSS E TX AS COMPARED TO NRN LA AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SSEWD REACHING SE TX AND THE TX COAST TOWARD 00Z. LOCATIONS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN PRECIP-TYPE FROM RAIN
TO A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SLEET
SHOWERS. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH PER HOUR AND LOCALLY
TO 0.15 INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY WITH TSTMS...ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
RATES ARE VERIFIED PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE WRN EDGE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...LIGHTNING DATA...AND
CIMSS GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING AND OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCTS
INDICATED CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE 1930Z ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO SWRN AR.
WHILE THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS REMAINED LOW PER WDSS-II MESH
PRODUCT /E.G. MESH HAIL SIZE UP TO 0.5-0.8 INCH/...THE GREATER
CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AN EXPECTED CHANGE IN PRECIP-TYPE
FROM W-E. MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE THIS CHANGE TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY 00Z...WITH THE
SURFACE 32 F ISOTHERM EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM INVOF TXK TO NEAR CLL
BY THAT TIME.

THE CURRENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...IS OCCURRING AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS ASCENT ATOP AN INFLUX OF
WARM/MOIST AIR ALONG A 40-45 KT SLY LLJ BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY
ATOP THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL SURFACE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS. THE EQUATOR-WARD INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL
THERMAL PROFILES TRANSITIONING TO ONES SUPPORTIVE OF MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...WITH TSTMS ENHANCING THE PRECIP RATES.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2014


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-031230-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS
347 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

TONIGHT SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL...SMALL ICY PELLETS...MAY MIX IN
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE PRECIPITATION MAY COME TO AND
BEFORE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.

SOME PATCHES OF ICE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IF THE VERY COLD WIND AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR DOESN'T SUCCEED IN DRYING OFF THE SURFACE.

[Kingwood31]

Man it's muggy outside,when is this cool front suppose to blow threw?

[srainhoutx]

It's already down to 51F here in NW Harris County, Kingwood31. That is a 22 degree drop in an hour for my location.

[txflagwaver]

Not even a breeze here...Rain coming with it?

[Kingwood31]

Still 71 here and muggy as all get out with all the mist

[Kludge]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND AFTER SEEING THE
SOUNDING FROM NEAR HOBBY AIRPORT HAVE DROPPED ANY FURTHER MENTION
OF SEVERE.

Translation:
Ooops. We goofed. The Pros left us interns in charge of the forecasts this weekend. They told us that this job was a breeze. They said, " just look at the 0Z GFS, and print-out the forecast verbatim, and you'll never be wrong...see you Monday". Sorry. Can someone call us a cab? It appears that driving will be more treacherous than the weather service...er...we...predicted it would be tomorrow morning. Thanks!

[Kludge]

PAGING DOCTOR WXMAN57....PAGING DOCTOR WXMAN57...
Your Patient, Mr. Winter-o-2013/4 that you pronounced deceased has just escaped from the morgue... please phone your office...

[srainhoutx]

LOL Kludge. Freezing line is advancing into College Station at this time and already freezing in Caldwell. Temp down to 47F in NW Harris County at this time and falling. I smell a Winter Weather Advisory coming before too long from HGX. Oh, and if the Euro is correct we may be doing this all over again next weekend as yet another powerful Winter Storm develops across Texas...

[SusieinLP]

Very still here, too. Sun peaked through quite a bit as I worked in yard. Glad I did not cut a lot back I did enjoy our touch of spring. Hope it comes back soon

Just went outside. Very misty. Still no wind and still warm

[tireman4]

Wind is starting to howl in Humble. Just got my 7 miler in so I am happy. Tonight will be interesting.

[Andrew]

Getting ice buildup on the windows up here in KCLL

[skidog40]

the sky tells the story. no models no predictions just nature, no one in control.