February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[wxman57]

Way to shoot down my excuse

Depending upon how many plants you'll have, you might start them in containers as early as January (next year). That will give them a good 4-6 weeks head start, increasing significantly their fruit-bearing time. And plant them deep - up to the top few sets of leaves. Tomatoes grow roots all along any part of the stem that is underground. Planting them deep (remove leaves on stem) encourages a deep root system that will be more drought-tolerant.

[Portastorm]

Guess I'll hold off on those tomato plants for a few more weeks.

That depends on your location. If you're in Huntsville or Conroe, you may still get another light freeze. Otherwise, there's a good chance we've seen our last freeze of the season. Tomatoes need to have nighttime temps below 70 degrees to set fruit, so if you start them too late you'll have a limited crop. Better to get them going now and cover them if we get another light freeze. I don't think we'll have another freeze this week or next week, and that takes us to March.

"I don't think we'll have another freeze this week or next week ..."

-- is that referring to areas of Houston south of I-10? Just curious. A rather strong statement to make in lieu of ongoing discussions from NWS' Weather Prediction Center and Climate Prediction Center about another Arctic blast coming into the central part of the US in the 7-10 day period. Then again, you're the weatherman and I'm not!

Time will tell.

[srainhoutx]

I'd almost be willing to bet I see another freeze before all is said and done up here in NW Harris County...

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 17 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 27 2014

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. A DEEP
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS, A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA, WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. SPAGHETTI CHARTS FROM TODAY'S ENSEMBLES REVEAL THAT THERE IS HIGH MODEL
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE FORECAST TROUGHS, BUT LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. TODAY'S 00Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BE MUCH STRONGER OVER ALASKA THAN TODAY'S GEFS
ENSEMBLES. OTHER THAN THAT, ALL OF TODAY'S MODELS SHOW HIGH CONTINUITY WITH ONE
ANOTHER.
THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW HIGHLY FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF ALASKA AND MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST WHERE ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE TENDS TO FAVOR NIGHTTIME INVERSIONS AND LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A DEEP TROUGH WITH
ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA, STRONGLY ENHANCING THE
CHANCE FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH, ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ONSHORE IN ALASKA, HIGHLY FAVORING ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION. ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL
ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION, EXCEPT ALONG THE
EAST COAST WHERE A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS.

[biffb816]

I'd almost be willing to bet I see another freeze before all is said and done up here in NW Harris County...

I'm just south of the county line, and mid February just feels too early to be past frost danger this year, but the Old Farmer's Almanac says I'm in the clear!

It also says hurricanes should stay east and south of Texas this year.

[unome]

so far, seeing low temps forecast in the 40s, but it's hard to believe we will get back to freezing, still in denial here

hope that precip outlook improves http://www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov/

*** their Youtube video explaining the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjZM48Czfxg very informative

[srainhoutx]

Morning update from Jeff:

Prolonged sea fog event in progress along the TX and LA coasts.

Warm dewpoints in the low to mid 60’s spreading across the “cold” nearshore waters in the 50’s has produced an expansive bank of sea fog which has progressed inland to around I-10 this morning. A little bit more wind north of I-10 has helped to mix the fog into a low stratus layer. See little change to this pattern with fog locked in along the coast and in the bays for the next 48 hours straight and then progressing inland each evening as dewpoints continue to run well over nearshore/bay water temperatures. Only way to solve the problem is warm up the water or push a front off the coast lowering the dewpoints. Until then visibilities will run ½ to ¼ of a mile along the coast and in the bays for much of the next 48 hours.

Temperatures will continue to run warm with highs pushing the mid to upper 70’s each day and lows in the 60’s. Slightly cooler and drier this weekend.

Looks like the second option is in to offering by late Thursday as a weak front will move off the coast Thursday night. Could see just enough moisture pooling ahead of this boundary to produce a chance of some much needed rainfall across the area…but at the moment overall amounts look on the low side…generally between .25 and .50 of an inch. Should start to see a few showers south of I-10 as early as Wednesday afternoon with better chances on Thursday into Thursday evening.

Upper flow becomes more amplified and more progressive into next week with a series of weak cool fronts crossing the area. Pattern may become amplified enough to grab a piece of arctic air and send it southward by the middle to end of next week…but there is enough uncertainty with the placement of the cold air into the US at the moment to trend our long range temperatures closer to climo than colder than average.

[wxman57]

Even temps 10-12F colder than normal next week would still be above freezing for IAH, and I don't see anything to indicate air that cold across our area. The Arctic air is heading for the Great Lakes and New England, not us. A piece of it may get temps down near 40 next week. Getting more confident that we won't see any more freezes at IAH, and certainly none in south Houston.

[ronyan]

I respect wxman's expertise but It's probably too early to say there won't be any freezes in South Houston. They have happened several times in March before and we don't really know.

[Texaspirate11]

Even temps 10-12F colder than normal next week would still be above freezing for IAH, and I don't see anything to indicate air that cold across our area. The Arctic air is heading for the Great Lakes and New England, not us. A piece of it may get temps down near 40 next week. Getting more confident that we won't see any more freezes at IAH, and certainly none in south Houston.

I BELIEVE!

[Belmer]

Excuse me,
But Jesus almighty by the Grace of God... If the 12Z GFS were to miracoulsy verify in the 216+ hour window, this country needs to brace what's coming. Wxman57 might be in tears right now.

[wxman57]

I respect wxman's expertise but It's probably too early to say there won't be any freezes in South Houston. They have happened several times in March before and we don't really know.

While freezes in north Houston (IAH, Conroe) have happened in March and even April in the past, they're not very common in south Houston after February.

[unome]

the 1st home I lived in in Houston had roses, wasn't used to growing/caring for them so I called the local agriculture extension office & they said Feb 15th was the date I could trim them back without fear of frost damage - now they were giving me advice specific to tea roses, but that's what I've always gone by since & it's worked for decades for me - we trimmed everything in the yard this last weekend, seriously doubt I'll need to protect anything again

here's a frost date site for gardeners for reference: http://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-te ... te-map.php

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Cool front over NW TX this morning will push across SE TX this afternoon with a chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today ahead of a cool front this evening. Sea fog continues to plague the coastal locations with Galveston still at ¼ to ½ mile visibilities which they have been running since Sunday. Moisture is fairly limited below a capping inversion (layer of warm air) in the mid levels and suspect this capping feature will limit rain chances and thunderstorms this afternoon. Best lift and moisture will be found east of I-45, and this is where the highest rain chances will be with the lowest chances along the coast and toward Matagorda Bay where the cap will not be overcome. Could see up to .50 of an inch east of I-45 with amounts tapering off to the west and southwest of that.

Cool and dry conditions will return the area to normal temperature wise for Friday into the first part of the weekend before wind turn back south and bring moisture inland again by Sunday. Will probably have to deal with another bout of sea fog by late Sunday as warm dewpoints push back above nearshore water temperatures. This sea fog threat will last into early next week or until the next cold front pushes across the area around possibly Tuesday of next week. WSW upper level flow late Sunday-Tuesday could help brings a few short waves across the area and generate some much needed rainfall, but with the dry pattern in place I have my doubts that this pattern will generate much actual rain and latest model guidance numbers are not very encouraging…better rain chances might be found by the middle of next week.

[srainhoutx]

Cap is definitely breaking. Thunder and lightning in NW Harris County at this time.

[Andrew]

Cap is definitely breaking. Thunder and lightning in NW Harris County at this time.

Looking at some mesoanalysis, getting some good surface lapse rates of 7 C/km and CAPE also looks decent throughout the area. Taking a peak at satellite imagery shows some nice breakage in cloud cover just south of College Station. Wouldn't be surprised if the Houston area sees a little more than originally expected.

[srainhoutx]

updat from Jeff:

Capping is weakening just enough over the region to allow thunderstorms to develop.

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Polk, Trinity, and Houston counties until 800pm.

While the severe threat still appears limited south of HWY 105 recent radar trends over Fort Bend County suggest that the mid level capping inversion is eroding enough to allow thunderstorms formation. Additionally, lift along the incoming front has developed a line of strong thunderstorms which extend from near  Huntsville to Lufkin. Still think the main severe threat will be NE of SE TX over far east TX and Louisiana, but an isolated large hail or damaging wind report will be possible mainly N of HWY 105 and east of I-45.
 
Interestingly enough the special 18Z sounding launched from UH shows a weakened cap over the city and this may be some of the reasoning for the fairly aggressive development ongoing over Fort Bend County.





 

 

 

[mckinne63]

Nice rain showers on my home from work a half hour ago, nothing heavy, but enough to keep the wipers going. Hearing rumbles of thunder off and on in Stafford.

[ticka1]

thunder lightning and pouring down rain here downtown while catching the bus!

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
500 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... NORTHERN
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CST

* AT 459 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BAYTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...HIGHLANDS...BARRETT...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...OLD
RIVER-WINFREE...COVE...DEVERS...STOWELL...WINNIE...WALLISVILLE AND
HANKAMER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

[Texaspirate11]

NOT a drop a rain by the bay - nary a spit. NADA.