February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[snowman65]

I understand both perspectives though. I love snow and want it more than anything. SNOW SNOW SNOW MMMMmmmmm. the more, the better. but I can not move because I have a great job doing something I really like doing and I make a ton of money and hardly work any hours[/quote]

So, what you're saying is you are a backup NFL QB ???

[Andrew]

im very angry about this lines for the frozen precip. just north of i10/ our northern counties,,,a college station to huntsvolle line. im sick of everything being on the northern edge.

There has been a pretty good mix this winter With respect to location, but this is SE Texas. If you want more Winter precipitation I suggest moving North

I understand both perspectives though. I love snow and want it more than anything. SNOW SNOW SNOW MMMMmmmmm. the more, the better. but I can not move because I have a great job doing something I really like doing and I make a ton of money and hardly work any hours

Haha I understand, just saying can't complain too much when our climate supports little to no snow. Overall been a pretty good winter for wintry precip. I for one will be excited when it is done and we can move into Spring and Summer.

[skidog40]

lets see where these temps are tonight. 48 here in katy now which was forecast at 6 pm tonight

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1156 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON MAINLY BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND EXPOSED
SURFACES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND SPREAD
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES. ICE MAY BE SPOTTY ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA AS TEMPERATURES CAN VARY DRASTICALLY BECAUSE OF
TERRAIN.

TXZ171>173-183>192-206-111200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0005.140211T0600Z-140212T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS
1156 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE HILL COUNTRY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

* MAIN IMPACT...A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE MAY OCCUR ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND EXPOSED SURFACES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON AREA ROADS. EXPECT DELAYS AND
EVEN POSSIBLE ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20S.

[Portastorm]

I really have my doubts about the AUS metro area being included. But EWX just issued a supplementary discussion and explained some of their reasoning. Perhaps some of the non-US guidance shows temps below freezing. My review of the GFS/NAM/SREF all show temps above freezing in Austin for the duration of the precipitation.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HILL COUNTRY ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF I-35 CORRIDOR FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6PM TUESDAY.
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE THREAT WILL BE IN THE MORNING AS
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINLY ABOUT THE
AFTERNOON WARMUP TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE TUE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

[skidog40]

45 in katy now still dropping

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
248 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR TO THE
REGION. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR THESE LOCATIONS SO PATCHY ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL WELL AFTER NOON ON TUESDAY. THESE ISSUES MAY BE ONGOING OR
REDEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HIGHER FOR LOCATIONS FROM CROCKETT TO
CORRIGAN AND THIS COULD HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS THAN JUST
ICING ON BRIDGES. A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
HOUSTON...TRINITY AND POLK COUNTIES.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195-196-198-110500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.ZR.Y.0001.140211T0900Z-140212T0600Z/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLDSPRING...
COLLEGE STATION...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...GROVETON...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...
ONALASKA...SHEPHERD...TRINITY
248 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY 3 TO
4 AM TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONGOING RAIN AND DRIZZLE CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ON TUESDAY. REFREEZING OF WATER
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND/OR WATER ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES MAY REFREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE SHOULD BE LIGHT.

[skidog40]

42.8 degrees in katy, forecasted at 10 pm?

[nuby3]

yep. 42 here as well in Spring/Woodlands. dewpoint 40 steadily going down with gusty N winds

interestingly, Dallas has just reached it's forecasted overnight low temperature

[cristina6871]

DP said just the far northern counties have a winter weather watch and chance of ice. What are the chances for Mont. Co.? Are they again being conservative with how low the temps will go?

[WeatherDuck]

34 in Georgetown. The forecast low is 33.

[nuby3]

DP said just the far northern counties have a winter weather watch and chance of ice. What are the chances for Mont. Co.? Are they again being conservative with how low the temps will go?

I think they are, but only time will tell. they always do this with shallow air masses. every.single.time.

Waco down to freezing

[WX201]

37 here in Kountze...30 miles north of Beaumont, well ahead of schedule on temp drop was not forecast to get to upper 30's till after midnight

[WeatherDuck]

30 currently in Killeen. That is the NWS forecast low.

[skidog40]

39 katy

[ticka1]

39 for me in mont belvieu

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Winter refuses to give up…

Freezing Rain Advisory in effect for the following counties from 300am into Tuesday night for the following counties:

Houston, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Madison, Brazos, Grimes, Burleson, and Washington

Incoming arctic air mass continues to push southward into the region with 700pm temperatures ranging from 38 at College Station to 42 at BUSH IAH and 46 at Palacios under gusty north winds. Warm air continues to overrun the shallow cold dome in the mid layers. In fact the latest HRRR sounding for IAH shows a temperature of 42 at the surface warming to 50 degrees at 2900 ft. Flow aloft will continue to support warm moist advection of Gulf air mass over the shallow cold dome into Tuesday evening as incoming upper level storm system helps foster this process. Expect light to moderate rain to continue in favored band of ascent generally along/SE of US 59 corridor this evening then becoming more widespread on Tuesday as increasing lift arrives from the west.

P-type:
This is a freezing rain event for the advisory counties is surface temperatures can fall to the freezing mark. Given such warm air aloft it will be all liquid falling to the surface and then freezing on contact if the surface is at or below freezing. Looking at dewpoints this evening and a review of the low level soundings do not show a lot of room for evaporative cooling…unlike the previous winter weather events this year. Hence precipitation falling will not help to cool the surface temperature. In fact all dewpoints are above freezing across all of the area currently. So how can the temperature be reduced to the freezing mark…through cold air advection or the southward transport of colder and drier air from north TX. This process is ongoing and has been all afternoon helping to slowly lower the surface air and dewpoint temperatures yet at the same time keeping the low levels near saturation. Cold air advection will continue all night and into Tuesday and this should come close to lowering the surface air temperature to at/below freezing north of a line from Brenham to Huntsville to Livingston. Drizzle and light rain in this area will likely transition over to freezing drizzle/rain after 400am Tuesday and possibly continue through much of the day as temperatures hover in the low 30’s.

Do not expect any sleet given the warm layer in the mid levels…hence the Freezing Rain Advisory verses a Winter Weather Advisory.

Accumulation:
Ice accumulations of .01 to .10 of an inch will be possible in the advisory area especially from I-45 eastward. Portions of the advisory area around Lake Livingston WNW to near Crockett are very close to possible accumulations upwards of .15 of an inch which would push these areas into Winter Storm Warning criteria of .12 of an inch accumulation. Think the most likely impacts will be to bridges and overpasses and ice on all elevated objects. Accumulation may be slow to form with marginal temperatures Tuesday morning…but worsen during the late morning hours as temperatures remain at or below freezing for several hours allowing objects and pavement to cool. I am a little concerned that guidance is underplaying the QPF…as so far parts of the area have already picked up .40 to .70 of an inch of rainfall today…but this higher axis of rainfall appears to be displaced just south of where the freezing line may end up. Would not be surprised to see portions of the eastern part of the advisory area upgraded to a warning late tonight or early Tuesday morning.  

Houston Metro:
No guidance is indicating freezing temperatures reaching this far southward and expect a very cold rain with this system. Do not expect enough cold air advection to lower the temperature enough to result in freezing rain or ice accumulation.

Southern US:
SE TX is at the formative edge of what looks to become a crippling ice storm across much of the southern US from Louisiana into the Carolinas that has the potential to have long lasting societal and economic impacts. A quick look at forecast surface temperatures and expected QPF (rainfall amounts) over much of Georgia into South Carolina indicate some very ominous ice amounts. Generated liquid precipitation of 1.0-1.75 inch in surface temperatures in the upper 20’s is possible from central/north GA into NC. Ice accumulation grids indicate devastating amounts of ice on the order of .50-1.25 inches. Ice accumulation of this magnitude will result in considerable damage to vegetation and above ground power infrastructure. The event duration is also impressive possibly lasting 36-48 hours of freezing rain which is how you can get some of those very impressive amounts of ice accumulation.  

[PaulEInHouston]

Checking in at 44 in League City with a nice band of much needed rain moving in from the S/West. Bring on the water!! I don't see evaporate cooling making a big difference as opposed to the last few events, at least this far South in the CWA.

[nuby3]

if I bust by 3 degrees things are entirely different altogether for me

[cristina6871]

will Montgomery County get to freezing - or below?