May Weather Discussion.

[sleetstorm]

5 Day QPF looks a bit better this morning. Keeping fingers crossed for some rain!

I pray that computer model keeps trending in that direction. What does it have to say about severe thunderstorms, srainhoutx?

[Ptarmigan]

Have faith. It will rain this week to next week.

[wxdata]

0z QPF, pretty please!!

[Mr. T]

Models have done an excellent job showing the upcoming mini-wet pattern we are about to experience for over a week now. If everything works out, kudos to the ensembles and Euro on this one.

The wet is coming!

[srainhoutx]

Nice to see the forecast calling for some rain finally. While it appears that there is some differences in guidance regarding amounts and any Meso Scale development that may occur, just seeing Austin/San Antonio suggestng 3-5 inch totals and HGX 1-2 inch totals is hopeful.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update has part of Central and N TX in a Slight Risk...keeping fingers crossed...



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/CENTRAL TO NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131307Z - 131400Z

A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN TO SWRN
TX.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY
/SINCE 1145Z/ ALONG OR JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO SJT TO THE TX BIG BEND. AIR MASS
ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-50 KT/ TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION. ASIDE FROM THE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH A LIFTING MECHANISM SUPPORTING THIS
RECENT DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SUB-TROPICAL
IMPULSE MAY BE MOVING NEWD INTO THIS REGION AT THIS TIME...AND
SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A WATCH ACROSS PART OF THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 05/13/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

[wxdata]

NWS doesn't seem to be very bullish about rain chances here in the metro area, with only a 20%-30% chance of rain through the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Getting some sun in NW Harris County. The 12Z WRF did show some showers/storms across the area. Maybe we can squeeze out something before the weekend.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFR ... jloop.html

[srainhoutx]

Getting some sun in NW Harris County. The 12Z WRF did show some showers/storms across the area. Maybe we can squeeze out something before the weekend.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFR ... jloop.html

To quote NWS CRP

LOOKS LIKE THE NAM WAS FLAT OUT WRONG 6-12 HOURS INTO THE
FORECAST TODAY...SO TOUGH TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN IT.

I did say maybe. I do like our chances for at least scattered showers/storms. Better than it's been...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[srainhoutx]

Yikes!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 141209Z - 141415Z

QUASI-STATIONARY MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL RATES
OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES/ IS SPREADING NWD
ACROSS S CENTRAL TX ON A 30-40 KT SSELY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE
FEED...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING...IS MAINTAINING A
QUASI-STATIONARY MCS JUST W OF SAT. LITTLE NET MOTION OF THE MCS IS
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF LOCAL WIND PROFILES THAT
FAVOR CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTION SWD TO OFFSET SLOW NWD
MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A COLD
POOL LATER THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE S
WARMS AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL INCREASES SOME...AT WHICH TIME
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE EWD/NEWD. UNTIL THEN...THE
TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3
INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010


ATTN...WFO...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
851 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 WSW HELOTES 29.54N 98.77W
05/14/2010 BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

A PARK RANGER AT GOVERNMENT CANYON STATE PARK REPORTED
A FUNNEL CLOUD.

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/14/10 1319Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1302Z CW
.
LOCATION...S TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER NE MEDINA COUNTY IS ANCHORED MCS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MCS WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS BELOW
-75C HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER PORTIONS OF MEDINA COUNTY FOR THE LAST 3-HRS.
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD STLT ESTIMATES SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 4.5-4.7" OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN. 13Z SFC OBS INDICATE ESE WINDS AT KSKF THEN JUST
TO THE W AT KHDO WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NE. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES A
MESO VORT SPINNING ACROSS MEDINA COUNTY WITHIN THIS MCS...THIS IS CAUSING
VERY HVY RAINS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE MEDINA COUNTY.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 13Z-15Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK...HVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX
AS NEW CONVECTION IS SEEN DEVELOPING IN VIS STLT IMAGERY ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE MCS. STRONG SRLY LLVL JET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULLING
2.0-2.1" PWS FROM THE WRN GULF INTO SRN TX FEEDING IT INTO THE MCS AND
NEW CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING RESULTING IN VERY HVY RAINS.

[texoz]

Something interesting going on right now around sw Austin. I'm about 5 miles sw of downtown and am hearing steady thunder. However, current radar (9:53am) shows no rain within 15 miles. Storms are heading this way, but nothing here yet.

Could this be lightening from the cloud tops of the storms 15 to 20 miles from here?

[srainhoutx]

Something interesting going on right now around sw Austin. I'm about 5 miles sw of downtown and am hearing steady thunder. However, current radar (9:53am) shows no rain within 15 miles. Storms are heading this way, but nothing here yet.

Could this be lightening from the cloud tops of the storms 15 to 20 miles from here?

Very possible. Not encouraging for the San Antonio Area...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
WEST CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT.

* AT 936 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATES SHOW UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF MEDINA COUNTY
AND ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS HEADING TOWARD THIS AREA WITH
ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN LIKELY.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CLIFF...RIO
MEDINA...MICO AND LAKEHILLS.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit closer, but probably will miss us...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1103 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING...

.A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AN INFLOW OF MOIST GULF AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OF
3 TO 5 INCHES. THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-491-493-
507-150000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0003.100514T1603Z-100515T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-
DEWITT-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-
HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-
REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLEASANTON...BANDERA...BASTROP...
SAN ANTONIO...BLANCO...BURNET...LOCKHART...NEW BRAUNFELS...
CUERO...CARRIZO SPRINGS...ROCKSPRINGS...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...
FREDERICKSBURG...GONZALES...SEGUIN...SAN MARCOS...KARNES CITY...
BOERNE...KERRVILLE...BRACKETTVILLE...HALLETTSVILLE...GIDDINGS...
LLANO...EAGLE PASS...HONDO...LEAKEY...AUSTIN...UVALDE...
GEORGETOWN...FLORESVILLE...CRYSTAL CITY
1103 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...
BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DEWITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON AND ZAVALA.

* UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* A MOIST INFLOW OF GULF AIR...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL PRODUCE RISES AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS TODAY. SOME
AREAS IN MEDINA AND BANDERA COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO NEAR 8 INCHES.

[wxdata]

NESDIS:

"UL WAVE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY IS PASSING OVER THE MCS
AT 15Z AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MCS WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SLOWLY E OR SEWD
OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BUT UNTIL THAT TIME HVY RAINS OF 1-2"/HR RATES
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND MEDINA COUNTY."

[svrwx0503]

Could be an interesting afternoon as both the CRP and LCH soundings from this morning indicate a much weaker cap over the region with convective temps in the lower to mid 80s. MCS over central Texas is showing some signs of slowly moving/developing off to the ESE with showers starting to develop across Jackson and Victoria counties. At the very least this complex could eventually move across our southwestern set of counties later this afternoon and evening possibly dropping some much needed rain. Dan, whats your opinion on the situation? The morning soundings show very little cap at both sounding sites.

[svrwx0503]

Statement from NWS concerning this afternoon's rain chances.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING CLL BY AROUND 19-20Z AND
SPREADING INTO THE METRO TAF SITES AROUND 00Z.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see some CU development to my West now. Keep those fingers crossed!

[svrwx0503]

Showers and thunderstorms really starting to erupt out west moving east.