February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[wxman57]

Yeah, the 18Z indicates temps in the low-mid 30s with rain next Friday for Houston. Not as cold as last Tuesday, though, so I wouldn't expect too many issues if the temp doesn't drop below 30.

[TxJohn]

Sadly I think if we get anything it may be ice/sleet. 32 to 31 degrees doesn't seem to cut it for us when it comes to snow....we're always at the mercy of that warm nose :/ or dry air and the dynamics never come together perfectly. Unless we're below 30 in the 25-30 range I won't get my hopes up about snow.

[Belmer]

Latest models have shifted a bit NW in the snowfall tonight here in Oklahoma. Norman might get the "snow band" if were to verify. Give or take a few miles N or S. See what tonight's models brings us.
Regardless after tonight, looks like many school cancellations this week here in OK as we have back to back winter storms coming in. With the Thursday/Friday one looking to be the biggest.

[cperk]

Yeah, the 18Z indicates temps in the low-mid 30s with rain next Friday for Houston. Not as cold as last Tuesday, though, so I wouldn't expect too many issues if the temp doesn't drop below 30.

wxman57 will the GFS trend colder because of the snowpack laid down by the first storm this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Rather impressive snow total being predicted Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon across the Southern Rockies, Central and Southern Plains. This is from the second in a series of Winter Storms expected to cross the Southern half of the US this week.

[SusieinLP]

sea fog rolling in here in LA Porte but it's still breezy.

[Texaspirate11]

Just drove over the Fred Hartman Bridge in the fog - or I think it was the bridge - sheesh

[skidog40]

what the hell is that coming from west Texas

[TxJohn]

0Z GFS is drier for next weekend. Instead of models trending towards wintry weather...they're trending away. GFS was the go to model with last week's system. The gfs is trending drier for this weekend unfortunately. I don't think Houston will get anything in the latter part of next week. But you never know.....we'll see.

[djjordan]

They say we're young and we don't know
We won't find out until we grow
Well I don't know if all that's true
'Cause you got me, and baby I got you

Babe
I got you babe I got you babe

Happy Groundhog's Day!!!!!!

[Kingwood31]

So it's over for Friday?even with 5 days still to go...

[cisa]

It ain't over till it's over.

[nuby3]

I can't even believe, after what I just saw happen over the last couple of weeks, that we are again hugging the models for a snow forecast. I'm done with it. This far out, whether they say yes or know, it really just means "maybe". maybe is maybe. small maybe or big maybe. Here? always a small maybe. Most times when I have seen snow in Southeast texas, it was unexpected. The largest snowfall I saw while living in Oklahoma happened when it was forecast THAT DAY to be all rain. I'm just saying. Might not want to care too much until inside of three days, and even then, this looks just like the last one maybe. RIGHT NOW, Northern Texas in under a WSW that was from what I understand, unexpected. I'm looking at what's happening right now, what's been happening, and what the models are doing, and in my opinion, maybe we will get some more frz rn and sleet. I feel better about this one than the last one, for some reason. For no reason then. Wait and see....

[srainhoutx]

A very complex and challenging weather week ahead with the first of a series of 4 winter weather events underway across our Region this morning across the Panhandle/N Texas and Oklahoma. Convective storms across W Texas moving NE should bring a chance of thunder snow/thunder sleet into the Wichita Falls area and slowly spread SE towards Ft Worth and the DFW area later this afternoon. As the day progresses, freezing rain and sleet may spread even further SE of the Metroplex as the models are not handling the current trends well at all regarding surface temps as well as the upper air profiles. This Winter Storm should slowly come to an end overnight with drier conditions early tomorrow. The cold front is crossing Metro Houston at this hour and should be near or just off the Coast by this afternoon.

Winter storm number 2 Is arriving along the California Coast this morning and is expexted to trek E across Northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. This storm system is stronger and over running should start in earnest Monday night into Tuesday as a Coastal wave develops near Corpus Christi. There is a chance that freezing precip may develop across portions of the Hill Country before the precip comes to an end. In the wake of this potent Winter Storm that may drop 4-6 inches of snow across Oklahoma and some possible higher amounts near 8 to 10 inches, much colder air will plunge S into Texas on Wednesday.

A very progressive active pattern continues on Thursday as a short wave/upper air disturbance with its origin of an Arctic nature drops S into the Northern Mexico area S of Arizona/New Mexico. Along Coastal Southern Texas a Coastal Low is being suggested which increases over running precip Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with the temperature profiles as well as upper air analysis at this extended range. Temperatures are expected to be in the single digits to low teens across Oklahoma Thursday. The main upper storm system should arrive on Friday across New Mexico and West Texas before finally exiting our Region next Saturday as the main trough/upper air features exit E. A word of caution. This is a very complicated and complex weather pattern and all interests should continue to monitor and expect day to day changes as events and additional data become available. Stay Tuned! This looks to be a wild weather week across our Region.

[don]

Heres a paragraph taken from this mornings national weather service discussion.

GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO COME INTO SOME CONSENSUS FOR THE END OF
WEEK FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH
POSSIBLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO JET AFFECTING THE AREA. MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOR SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS FOR THUR BUT LOOKING
LIKE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE S ROCKIES AND TX ON
FRI. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND AMPLIFIED. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SAT
AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PASSES THE AREA AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DRY OUT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH TRAILING THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS FOR
FRI MORNING. HAVE SOME AREAS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
FORECAST WILL KEEP RAIN AS PRECIP TYPE BUT VERY WELL COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BASED ON TOP-DOWN PRECIP METHODOLOGY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP. STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING
FORWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[TxJohn]

It won't be cold. As of now it looks like anything that falls will be quite light.

Hopefully it's all rain though. I don't want the city to shut down cuz of a trace of some very light stuff. Workers have already missed two days without pay.

[Portastorm]

The winter storm impacting West and North Texas has even reached down into the Hill Country as some light freezing precip is now possible per NWSFO EWX. Models clearly underestimated strength of cold air and vorticity with storm. That should be a hint to all of you hugging the models for later this next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SET THE MORNING TRENDS A LITTLE BETTER ON
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. WITH RADAR PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THESE
AREAS THAT ARE HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL SEND OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WITH RETURNS SO LIGHT...AND TEMPS
LIKELY ALREADY BOTTOMING OUT...THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL IMPACT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER IN CASE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DRYING STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.

[srainhoutx]

^^

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
918 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

TXZ171-172-183>186-188-021800-
LLANO-BURNET-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-GILLESPIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG
918 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...COLD LIGHT RAIN...MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS FROM NORTHERN VAL
VERDE COUNTY...THROUGH GILLESPIE COUNTY...AND UP TO BURNET COUNTY.
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THIS REGION
AND A FEW WEATHER STATIONS ARE SHOWING MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 30S. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ROAD AND TRAVEL
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY THAT RECEIVES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. SOME LIGHT GLAZING COULD OCCUR ON
WINDSHIELDS AND EXPOSED SURFACES BUT ROADS AND BRIDGES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR OF ICE AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES DECREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

GO TO WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION...FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS.

[srainhoutx]

It won't be cold. As of now it looks like anything that falls will be quite light.

Hopefully it's all rain though. I don't want the city to shut down cuz of a trace of some very light stuff. Workers have already missed two days without pay.

That's a mighty bold statement to make 5 days out, John. I guess you didn't learn your lesson last time, did you?

[srainhoutx]

FWD to expand Winter Storm Warning to include Palo Pinto and Wise Counties.