January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[tireman4]

Remember folks, this is one model. As Sraintx and Wxman 57 preach, patience. We shall see. Stay tuned.

True

The 0z NAM has the upper low a good bit of distance further east in 24 hours than the 18z run... This really makes all the difference.

If the GFS shows the further east solution and thus more lift, you can't take it as a bad sign!

Not at all brother. Not at all. It is ramping up my excitement.

[rnmm]

Remember folks, this is one model. As Sraintx and Wxman 57 preach, patience. We shall see. Stay tuned.

True

The 0z NAM has the upper low a good bit of distance further east in 24 hours than the 18z run... This really makes all the difference.

If the GFS shows the further east solution and thus more lift, you can't take it as a bad sign!

What does this mean? Can you please explain?

[PaulEInHouston]

Event 2.jpg (121.18 KiB) Viewed 5363 times

700 Mb moisture/RH and transport looks conducive for mid-level moisture/over-running tied back to the Pacific low. Big question, will the warm nose be present? I don't think models will be "fed" any local balloon launches, but might, with analysis of the pro's here, be able to give us a better idea of p-type as the morning/afternoon event unfolds.

[Mr. T]

0z NAM:

nam_namer_024_500_vort_ht.gif

18z NAM:

nam_namer_030_500_vort_ht.gif

Baby steps....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Remember folks, this is one model. As Sraintx and Wxman 57 preach, patience. We shall see. Stay tuned.

True

The 0z NAM has the upper low a good bit of distance further east in 24 hours than the 18z run... This really makes all the difference.

If the GFS shows the further east solution and thus more lift, you can't take it as a bad sign!

What does this mean? Can you please explain?

It means more precip for our area... More widespread AND Heavier

[Paul Robison]

Fact or hype:

From ACCU-WEATHER"


Heavy Snow, Ice Target I-10 and I-95 in South



By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

January 27, 2014; 6:54 PM

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.
An expert analysis on the impending winter storm is given in the above AccuWeather.com video.

The polar blast now invading the East and South will set the stage for snow and ice to cause significant disruptions in the South on Tuesday through Wednesday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s as far south as the I-10 corridor from Houston to Pensacola, Fla., and Charleston, S.C., on Tuesday.

With that cold air in place, a storm system will tap into enough moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to allow snow and ice to develop from central Texas to the eastern Carolinas on Tuesday through Wednesday.

Houston and Austin, Texas; New Orleans; Mobile, Ala.; Jackson, Miss.; Pensacola and Tallahassee, Fla.; Savannah, Atlanta and Macon, Ga.; Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Columbia, S.C.; Norfolk, Va.; and Raleigh, Wilmington and the Outer Banks of North Carolina lie within this zone.



Sleet could even make an appearance in Jacksonville.

While the infrequent snow will be a welcome sight for children and those young at heart, this will be a major winter storm for the I-10 corridor and the eastern Carolinas.

RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Winter Weather Center
Snow- and Cold-Related Watches, Warnings
Forecast Temperature Maps

Comparable events for this storm and the area of concern include Jan. 10, 2011. According to National Weather Service Meteorologist Emily Timte, "The storm of 2011 clobbered parts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina with between 0.50 and 1.00 inch of ice."

A snowstorm spanning Feb. 11 to 13, 2010, captured part of the same area forecast to be hit by the system into this Wednesday. The storm during 2010 reached from Longview, Texas, to Cape Hatteras, N.C., where it put down a swath of 4 to 8 inches of snow along much of the way.

The amount of snow and ice (whether falling as sleet or freezing rain) could be substantial, leading to school closures, extremely treacherous travel and flight cancellations.



Residents and travelers should prepare for significant disruptions. This includes motorists planning to travel on Interstates 10, 40, 45, 65, 75 and 95.

Snow totals are expected to top 3 inches from southeastern Alabama to eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. This zone stretches across Montgomery, Ala., and Augusta, Ga., and lies just east of Raleigh.



A small area in part of the Carolinas are forecast to receive between 6 and 10 inches of snow from this storm, including Fayetteville, N.C. and Columbia, S.C.

In between the snow and plain rain across the Florida Peninsula will be substantial sleet and freezing rain. Power outages are a serious concern, especially where most of the winter storm produces freezing rain.

The storm has the potential to rival damage and the number of outages from the southern ice storm of Feb. 10-11, 1994. According to the New York Times, the storm in 1994 reached from the lower Mississippi Valley to the southeastern knocked out power to 800,000 people.

Anybody believe them?

The storm Tuesday into Wednesday has the potential to rival damage from the 1994 event but will tend to focus more toward part of the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts.



The winter storm could linger along the Carolina coast for a time on Thursday before heading out to sea.

The storm should not turn northward to graze the Northeast. The impending arctic blast will instead push the storm track well offshore, offering protection to the Northeast.

Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed content to this story.

[Mr. T]

It means more precip for our area... More widespread AND Heavier

pretty much

[Andrew]

Event 2.jpg

700 Mb moisture/RH and transport looks conducive for mid-level moisture/over-running tied back to the Pacific low. Big question, will the warm nose be present? I don't think models will be "fed" any local balloon launches, but might, with analysis of the pro's here, be able to give us a better idea of p-type as the morning/afternoon event unfolds.

These soundings by UH and A&M will unfortunately never be fed into the models.

[tireman4]

The 0z NAM has the upper low a good bit of distance further east in 24 hours than the 18z run... This really makes all the difference.

If the GFS shows the further east solution and thus more lift, you can't take it as a bad sign![/quote]


What does this mean? Can you please explain? [/quote]

I will try ( and Mr. T can clarify this for me) in lay terms. To quote Sraintx, this maybe a trend. Now one model does not a trend make, but if the GFS and Euro pick up on it, then it could be the start of more precip and colder temperatures.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Not a whole lot of change early this evening….

Full 18Z (noon) guidance packages are in and continue the trend which started around 12Z (600am) this morning of a drier and warmer event. Feel the snow chances can pretty much be pulled from most of the area at this point as maybe a dusting over the far northern areas.

Attention then turns to if we will have enough moisture and if the surface temperature is below freezing to result in freezing rain and ice accumulation. Upstream dewpoints are brutally dry (sub 0) over the Dallas area suggesting a large amount of dry air is pouring into the region. Dewpoints at College Station are already in the teens and continuing downward. Onset of precipitation will result in a quick temperature fall as the precipitation cools the air column toward the dewpoint. Question is becoming just how much precipitation will actually fall. Guidance continues to trend drier showing liquid amounts of .05-.10 of an inch across much of the area which is way down from .15-.30 early today…which would fall short of local warning criteria of .12 of an inch.

.05-.10 of an inch of liquid is still enough to produce significant problems on the roadways, but the surface temperature has to be below freezing and I would really like to see it at or below 30. Current indications are that the surface temperature will be between about 31-33 most of the day on Tuesday. It is just impossible to know for certain if we will be closer to 31 or 33 which is going to make a really big difference on ice accumulation and problems on the roads. For widespread ice formation on the bridges and overpasses would really like to see 29-30 on the surface air temperature.

Other item this evening is a slightly sooner onset of the precipitation and will move timing up by 2 hours. Already seeing good radar returns out west of Austin and surface reports of sleet/snow…so think this is the onset of the precipitation and extrapolation of its eastward movement has it into the area around 600am.

I will have the next update prior to 400am and the morning news cycle and hopefully prior to last minute decision making cut off times.

[TexasBreeze]

Positives after being so negative:
Area dew points are regionally below freezing. That will help drop temps when precip begins and it is nighttime. The last event started with above freezing dew points. Slowed the temp drop.
There seems to be plenty of moisture. Hope it stays around long enough for freezing.

[jgreak]

Latest from Jeff..seems out of sync with the latest talk here on the board...anyone care to chime in?

Not a whole lot of change early this evening….



Full 18Z (noon) guidance packages are in and continue the trend which started around 12Z (600am) this morning of a drier and warmer event. Feel the snow chances can pretty much be pulled from most of the area at this point as maybe a dusting over the far northern areas.



Attention then turns to if we will have enough moisture and if the surface temperature is below freezing to result in freezing rain and ice accumulation. Upstream dewpoints are brutally dry (sub 0) over the Dallas area suggesting a large amount of dry air is pouring into the region. Dewpoints at College Station are already in the teens and continuing downward. Onset of precipitation will result in a quick temperature fall as the precipitation cools the air column toward the dewpoint. Question is becoming just how much precipitation will actually fall. Guidance continues to trend drier showing liquid amounts of .05-.10 of an inch across much of the area which is way down from .15-.30 early today…which would fall short of local warning criteria of .12 of an inch.



.05-.10 of an inch of liquid is still enough to produce significant problems on the roadways, but the surface temperature has to be below freezing and I would really like to see it at or below 30. Current indications are that the surface temperature will be between about 31-33 most of the day on Tuesday. It is just impossible to know for certain if we will be closer to 31 or 33 which is going to make a really big difference on ice accumulation and problems on the roads. For widespread ice formation on the bridges and overpasses would really like to see 29-30 on the surface air temperature.



Other item this evening is a slightly sooner onset of the precipitation and will move timing up by 2 hours. Already seeing good radar returns out west of Austin and surface reports of sleet/snow…so think this is the onset of the precipitation and extrapolation of its eastward movement has it into the area around 600am.



I will have the next update prior to 400am and the morning news cycle and hopefully prior to last minute decision making cut off times.

[rnmm]

Thank you everybody!! I am sitting here with fingers, toes, and eyes crossed!!

[Portastorm]

EWX now forecasting up to a half inch of snow accumulation for the Austin metro area by morning. Significant upgrade in anticipated winter weather conditions compared to late afternoon forecast.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Just checked my dew point... 19

[helloitsb]

EWX now forecasting up to a half inch of snow accumulation for the Austin metro area by morning. Significant upgrade in anticipated winter weather conditions compared to late afternoon forecast.

Obviously there was never any doubt it would be cold enough but apparently there is more moisture for y'all than they originally thought. Do you think this transpires to more moisture for SETX?

[Ptarmigan]

Remember folks, this is one model. As Sraintx and Wxman 57 preach, patience. We shall see. Stay tuned.

Amen to that. Nature always has surprises up its sleeves.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Dewpoint of 33.8F here in Sugar Land. Temp slowly dropping. 54.1F. Dewpoint is dropping much faster than the temp

[Paul Robison]

Latest from Jeff..seems out of sync with the latest talk here on the board...anyone care to chime in?

Not a whole lot of change early this evening….



Full 18Z (noon) guidance packages are in and continue the trend which started around 12Z (600am) this morning of a drier and warmer event. Feel the snow chances can pretty much be pulled from most of the area at this point as maybe a dusting over the far northern areas.



Attention then turns to if we will have enough moisture and if the surface temperature is below freezing to result in freezing rain and ice accumulation. Upstream dewpoints are brutally dry (sub 0) over the Dallas area suggesting a large amount of dry air is pouring into the region. Dewpoints at College Station are already in the teens and continuing downward. Onset of precipitation will result in a quick temperature fall as the precipitation cools the air column toward the dewpoint. Question is becoming just how much precipitation will actually fall. Guidance continues to trend drier showing liquid amounts of .05-.10 of an inch across much of the area which is way down from .15-.30 early today…which would fall short of local warning criteria of .12 of an inch.



.05-.10 of an inch of liquid is still enough to produce significant problems on the roadways, but the surface temperature has to be below freezing and I would really like to see it at or below 30. Current indications are that the surface temperature will be between about 31-33 most of the day on Tuesday. It is just impossible to know for certain if we will be closer to 31 or 33 which is going to make a really big difference on ice accumulation and problems on the roads. For widespread ice formation on the bridges and overpasses would really like to see 29-30 on the surface air temperature.



Other item this evening is a slightly sooner onset of the precipitation and will move timing up by 2 hours. Already seeing good radar returns out west of Austin and surface reports of sleet/snow…so think this is the onset of the precipitation and extrapolation of its eastward movement has it into the area around 600am.



I will have the next update prior to 400am and the morning news cycle and hopefully prior to last minute decision making cut off times.

Dear Jeff.....has your opinon of icing impacts changed?

[Portastorm]

EWX now forecasting up to a half inch of snow accumulation for the Austin metro area by morning. Significant upgrade in anticipated winter weather conditions compared to late afternoon forecast.

Obviously there was never any doubt it would be cold enough but apparently there is more moisture for y'all than they originally thought. Do you think this transpires to more moisture for SETX?

IMO, what it means is that the lack of data from Mexico on this upper air system provided questionable integrity with the models we all saw. It was always a possibility and that's why your HGX forecasters stuck to their guns, wisely I think. They knew this was a possibility. It would seem to this amateur weather enthusiast that this development would mean more moisture for SE Texas as well. Stronger system ... a little further north than predicted ... a little wetter.