srainhoutx wrote:EWX reports light snow and sleet across the Edwards Plateau.
A lot of precip around areas where it is not even forecasted (Sonora).
Hi res models may be handling the amount of precip a bit better here. Not a surprise...
Thinking positively!
Looks like the only concern is getting these temps to drop on down. It's becoming apparent that we'll have the moisture.
But question is....will there be enough moisture around after our temps reach freezing or below? If the moisture is coming too soon...then we may not have much left to work with when we finally reach freezing...right?
Warning: Accuweater is comparing this winter weather event to the Feb. 1994 ice storm which knocked out electricity to 800,0000 people. Are they right?
Last edited by Paul Robison on Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EWX must be paying attention to the NAM. Earlier my point forecast was a 20% chance of precip and no accumulation mentioned, now it is 30% with less than half an inch of snow.
Here is the first of what may be a number of "surprises" in the next 24 hours ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
813 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
AN UPDATED WSW PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
ALTHOUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE RADAR ECHOES MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REFLECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MELTING
LAYER ENHANCEMENT...SURFACE REPORTS ARE CATCHING A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND PROBABLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
GIVEN THIS TREND AND THE FEED OF A DENSE LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDING SW TO THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL LOW...WILL NUDGE POPS
WESTWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT OVER
CENTRAL TX FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. QPF WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THIS AREA WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW SUGGESTED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND N OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE. EVENING QPF AMOUNTS
ARE NIL AS THE FIRST WAVE OF INSTABILITY HAS TO FALL THROUGH
ALMOST 10000 FEET OF DRIER AIR.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NOTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY AREA...BUT HAVE INCREASED THE ONSET OF MIXING INTO SLEET
WITHOUT MAKING CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. VERY DRY AIR WAS NOTED ON
THE DRT SOUNDING WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROCESS OF RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO THE MIX. VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE STILL REFLECTED IN NEW
MODEL ARRIVALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
TxJohn wrote:Question remains...will most of that moisture be during freezing temps?
The 2m temp forecast from the NAM suggests "yes".
It curiously warms them a bit while the precip falls in the early afternoon, but I doubt it. I'm more concerned about temps from the onset, and it does have us below freezing.
