January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Antonio/Austin issues Winter Weather Advisory.

[TexasMetBlake]

Tallahassee, FLORIDA: Winter Storm Warning now.

TWC Twitter: How's this for coincidence: Leon County, FL (Tallahassee) will be under a winter storm WARNING starting 1pm Tue for Winter Storm #Leon.

[Texaspirate11]

TWC- PFFT.

[sau27]

I think we should try to keep in mind that these winter weather events in our area usually produce a surprise or two. As has been said on this forum many times in the past EVERYTHING has to come together just right for wintry precipitation to pan out down here and even the smallest variations in the conditions, especially in the upper levels, can cause big differences. Lets not forget that just 3 days ago unexpected snow banding set up north of the metro area and some woke up to a surprise of multiple inches of snow. Now I am by no means saying that will happen tomorrow but it should illustrate the fact that with these events we can forecast in a general sense but we wont truly know until precipitation starts falling.

[redneckweather]

And there ya have it. SNOW will be confined to counties in the extreme northern viewing areas and what not. This looks to mirror what we saw last week. I'm sure it will snow 10 miles to my north (accumulated) like last time. While driving out that way Saturday, I started running into accumulating snow about 4 miles before I got to the Sam Houston Statue on I-45 driving North.

[Portastorm]

NWS San Antonio/Austin issues Winter Weather Advisory.

Yessir ... here it is:


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON TUESDAY...

.VERY COLD AIR CONTINUED TO BLAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY
THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE...WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF LULING TO
AUSTIN AND JARRELL LINE. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND END ALL AREAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TXZ171>173-184>194-203>209-219>225-280400-
/O.CON.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.140128T0600Z-140128T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-
GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...
LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
253 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...MAKING THEM ICY AND
DANGEROUS FOR TRAVEL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

I think we should try to keep in mind that these winter weather events in our area usually produce a surprise or two. As has been said on this forum many times in the past EVERYTHING has to come together just right for wintry precipitation to pan out down here and even the smallest variations in the conditions, especially in the upper levels, can cause big differences. Lets not forget that just 3 days ago unexpected snow banding set up north of the metro area and some woke up to a surprise of multiple inches of snow. Now I am by no means saying that will happen tomorrow but it should illustrate the fact that with these events we can forecast in a general sense but we wont truly know until precipitation starts falling.

And this exactly why HGX issued the Warning/Advisory. Also past experience tells us that in SE Texas and with upper air disturbances/short waves crossing SW Mexico the models have a tendency to preform less effectively, so don't be surprised if further adjustments are needed over the next 12-24 hours.

[hlewis]

I want to hear more from wxman and srain on the current situation. also, how does this compare to the snow of 2004?

[wxman57]

My initial observations looking out across TX and OK today are that the airmass is not as cold as the models had been predicting a few days ago. This is why the models have trended a little warmer with temps in the past few runs. I'm not too hopeful of seeing any snow in central Houston tomorrow. Can't rule it out, but I'm expecting mostly freezing rain and sleet to ice up bridges/overpasses during the afternoon. Surface roads will probably remain ice-free. Similar to last Friday.

[TexasMetBlake]

Lake Charles issues Winter Storm Warning for 2-3 inches of snow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
305 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER TO BECOME WIDESPREAD STARTING EARLY TUESDAY...

.THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS BEING
FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LAYER OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...MOST NOTICEABLE
AS FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH COLDER LOWS
BEGINNING TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OLD MEXICO BEGINNING TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH
GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR. THIS OVERRUNNING PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FUNNELS OVERHEAD WHILE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER OVERNIGHT...A MIXTURE OF WINTER
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE
HEELS OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...AND THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
280500-
/O.UPG.KLCH.WS.A.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.W.0003.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
305 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FORECAST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER-
INCH ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. NORTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...LESSER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Winter Storm heading for SE TX

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 300am to 600pm Tuesday for the following counties: Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Waller, Brazoria, Galveston, Washington, Grimes, Brazos, Burleson, Walker, San Jacinto, Polk, Liberty, and Chambers.

Winter Weather Advisory issued for the following counties: Austin, Colorado, Wharton, Matagorda, Jackson, Madison, Houston, and Trinity counties.

Discussion:

Arctic boundary is progressing off the coast this afternoon with gusty NW winds. Temperatures have yet to fall much behind the front as the cold air is lagging back across central TX. Should see the colder air mass sweep into the region this evening and overnight with temperatures falling to freezing over our northern counties by around 200am and across the central counties by 300-400am and the coast by 700-900am.

Some model changes have shown up in the 12Z (600am) runs that should at least be discussed…but I am not sure how much of an impact they are going to have on the actual outcome of this event. This still looks like a mainly freezing rain event with some sleet. Any snow accumulation should be confined to our far northern counties from College Station to Huntsville.

Models have come in warmer and drier…but this may be more of a parameterization effect of the model trying to resolve the correct P-type. However the point being is that if it is 33 and raining this is a non-event, but 31 and raining is a nightmare.

Will only make a couple of changes to the forecast P-types and accumulation amounts for Tuesday.

P-types (Updated):

North of HWY 105: sleet with some snow

North of US 59 (SW) and I-10 (E) of Houston: freezing rain mixed with some sleet, snow flurries possible toward the end

Coast to US 59 (SW) and I-10 (E): freezing rain changing to freezing rain and sleet mix, a few flurries possible

Accumulations: (Updated)

Hwy 105 north: 1-1.5 inches of snow. A trace - .05 of an inch of ice

US 59 north: .05 to .15 inch of ice/sleet. Trace amounts of snow

Coast to US 59: .10 to .15 inch of ice/sleet. Dusting of snow possible

Matagorda Bay area: .05-.10 inch of ice accumulation.

Impacts:

Big impacts still look to be on roadways, especially the bridges and overpasses. This is highly dependent on the surface air temperature being at or below freezing during the day. It is very possible we will hover in the 31-33 degree range and this may be about a degree too warm for effective ice formation until later in the afternoon hours when the sun lowers in the sky. Just impossible to attempt to determine 1 degree even a few hours out. Additionally, treated roadway surface should be able to go down to about 30 or so before ice begins to become a big problem…which also brings into question how much ice we will see on Tuesday during the day. A lot of parameters to look at and attempt to resolve with respect to road conditions on Tuesday….and none of it is easy.

I know this is not helping much with decision making…best information at this moment is that bridges and overpasses will become a problem during the day…especially by the late morning on Tuesday into the afternoon hours.

Do not think power outages will be an issue especially pulling back some on the accumulations of ice some. Gusty winds of 10-15mph will continue through the day, but with ice accumulation of .05 to .15 of an inch this should be handled.

Will update again early this evening.

[Snowman]

My initial observations looking out across TX and OK today are that the airmass is not as cold as the models had been predicting a few days ago. This is why the models have trended a little warmer with temps in the past few runs. I'm not too hopeful of seeing any snow in central Houston tomorrow. Can't rule it out, but I'm expecting mostly freezing rain and sleet to ice up bridges/overpasses during the afternoon. Surface roads will probably remain ice-free. Similar to last Friday.

In New Orleans do you think we will have to worry about ice accumulating on surface streets?

[WX201]

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FORECAST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER-
INCH ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. NORTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...LESSER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

* IMPACTS...ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY
DURING THE WARNING PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

***Seems to be a wide spread from weather office to weather office...i guess the further east you go he beter the chances for frozen stuff???

[djmike]

NWS Lake Charles for the Beaumont (SETX/SWLA) area...

ice3.PNG (89.71 KiB) Viewed 5169 times

[djmike]

NWS Lake Charles for the Beaumont (SETX/SWLA) area...

ice4.PNG (98.03 KiB) Viewed 5164 times

[wxman57]

In New Orleans do you think we will have to worry about ice accumulating on surface streets?

No, not on surface streets. North of the lake, maybe.

[TexasMetBlake]

I suspect we'll see a WWA issued for the southern tier of counties in the FWD CWA including Leon and Robertson counties and northward a bit.

[WX201]

Well I guess we can start the pin the tail on the donkey!

[Kingwood31]

From our friend Tim heller fb page again...

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm WARNING for Houston and Galveston from 3 AM - 6 PM Tuesday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect west of Houston where icy accumulations will be less.

I'm still concerned this storm will be a bust; much ado about nothing. As I said in a lengthy Facebook post this morning, the moisture is limited and it now looks like the upper atmosphere will not be cold enough for significant snow to fall.

Here's what I think will happen:

Some light freezing rain/drizzle, perhaps mixed with sleet, will start to fall in the Houston area early Tuesday morning around sunrise. Temperatures will be around 30°, so as moisture falls icy patches could form on bridges and overpasses. There could be some problem spots for the afternoon/evening commute.

It's possible the wintry mix could change to all snow before ending around 3 PM. The National Weather Service says an inch of snow is possible. As I explained this morning, I believe we won't have significant snow accumulation.

But as I always say with winter storms in the Houston area, expect surprises! One brief burst of heavy freezing rain or snow in the wrong spot could create big problems.

[TxJohn]

It's 57 in my area...I thought we were supposed to be in the upper 40s by now? The front is coming in warmer than expected.