January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[stormlover]

Guys nothing has changed why are y'all panicking?

[nuby3]

Wow go to bed with good news, now it looks like nothing
All those model runs yesterday. I thought for sure if Wxman was
On board this was a sure deal for snow!

ME TOO. but, don't worry. like others have said, it's just one off hour run. If the models were saying NO SNOW and then there was one run of SNOW we would all throw it out. so, no reason not to throw this one out until there are more like it

[nuby3]

Guys nothing has changed why are y'all panicking?

Because we don't trust Lucy to hold the football any more

[Portastorm]

Wait at least before the 12Z runs before giving up, please.

Yep Ed, I concur. FWIW, the 6z GFS/NCEP precip maps show somewhere between .10 to .25" in QPF for southeast Texas as compared to the "drier" 0z GFS which showed .01 to .10". And anything in that first range of numbers will still produce a winter storm for SE Texas given the progged temps.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It gets tiring reading the "battered wife syndrome" posts on this board when someone doesn't like a run...nothing has changed

[cperk]

I can't believe that one model run has prompted some of the previous post how many times have we been told to be patient and lets see where we are with the next set of model runs this afternoon.

[vci_guy2003]

Seems bulk of the action is east.

[cperk]

It gets tiring reading the "battered wife syndrome" posts on this board when someone doesn't like a run...nothing has changed

Amen.

[TexasMetBlake]

I think it might be a fail for Houston. Storm watch is smaller in size and GFS is drier for the west and southern areas.

The watch isn't smaller at all. It's just being covered by a stupid wind advisory. Once the warning is issued, you'll see all the original counties back ''in''.

[cperk]

Seems bulk of the action is east.

That's nothing new it was the case yesterday.

[cperk]

I think it might be a fail for Houston. Storm watch is smaller in size and GFS is drier for the west and southern areas.

The watch isn't smaller at all. It's just being covered by a stupid wind advisory. Once the warning is issued, you'll see all the original counties back ''in''.

If they would bother to click on one of those counties they would see that they are still under the watch.

[TexasMetBlake]

Seems bulk of the action is east.

That's nothing new it was the case yesterday.

Correct. However, Houston has the best chance at seeing snow---accumulating snow---than most other places. To our east I think will be a nasty ice storm perhaps ending as a bit of snow. Yesterday I was talking to a meteorologist at the Slidell office and they are very concerned about a crippling ice storm with qpf amounts approaching 1 inch. Yes, I said 1 inch (of ice).

[TexasMetBlake]

Shreveport office just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snowfall of 1 to 3 inches for their southern tier of counties.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH MORE
ARCTIC AIR. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING INITIALLY A MIX
OF SLEET AND SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOWFALL...ACCUMULATING ONE TO THREE
INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RUSK TEXAS...TO
GARRISON...TO JOAQUIN...TO MANSFIELD LOUISIANA...TO COUSHATTA...TO
DODSON...TO COLUMBIA.

LAZ010-011-017>022-TXZ149-152-153-165>167-280000-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0003.140128T0600Z-140129T0000Z/
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...MANY...
NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...JENA...RUSK...
NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
430 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

* EVENT...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY.

* IMPACT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE
CAUTION OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF MAINLY SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[cperk]

I think for bend county will be more in the sleet/freezing rain category.

[srainhoutx]

OK. Let look at a couple of things. The front is making progress S and quickly. There has always been a great deal of uncertainty as there always is in our part of the world regarding temperature profiles throughout the column up to 10,000 ft and we just will not know what the conditions aloft will be at this hour for conditions that WILL be happening along say around midnight. Also is the upper low currently over the Baja and how far S it drops or does it shear out too quickly. The further S solution mean drier conditions and less precip. Also is any development of a Coastal trough. THE NCEP or American guidance is much more bullish on the amounts of precip than the non American model. There is one exception and that is the UKMET. What we have witnessed over the past few days is wavering of the various solutions from the computer models meaning the available 'tools' are not in good agreement like they were last week. If you recall or have been reading the post from various Pro Mets and even the musings of the WPC/NWS, confidence has been tempered with the wording CONFIDENCE: Below Average. Let's see what the latest data suggests and also what we see 'real time' for events that are not suppose to develop until the overnight hours into tomorrow. I suspect the will be balloon launches from at least Texas A & M and maybe from U of H as well. The Winter Storm Watch continues for ALL of SE Texas, Southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, portions of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and the eastern portions of the Carolinas.

[nuby3]

It gets tiring reading the "battered wife syndrome" posts on this board when someone doesn't like a run...nothing has changed

it's not that big of a deal. some people are not as educated as others we should encourage them to speak up and ask questions so we can teach them

[cristina6871]

Srain,
THe thing that worries me the most is people getting stuck at work. Do you think the mayor will ask people and business to stay home and closed tomorrow or is that to risking for her to do incase it is not as bad as we are saying??

I live in The Woodlands but work on 1960 - I am not sure I would be able to drive to the office. I am hoping my boss makes the right decision this afternoon...OR lets us leave early tomorrow. Of course, we all had to come in for 1/2 day on Friday while he sat in his cozy house all day. Go figure.

[Kingwood31]

Furor wxman57 on st2k.Everyone chill! "I think that precip chances are closer to 100% tomorrow. Nothing has changed overnight. The main question is how much winter precip we'll get in Houston (and Conroe) not if it will happen. NWS is being quite conservative."



One thing I note (for Houston) in the GFS and NAM forecast soundings is that there is a warm nose present above 850mb all day tomorrow. This would suggest more of a freezing rain and sleet event for Houston rather than a snow event. Similar to last Friday.

[cristina6871]

Good morning. I finally read through the 10+ pgs of posts since I went to bed last night. Interesting information. Sadly I missed David Paul's forecast last night - would love to have seen it. I'm not sure what to expect tomorrow (morning and/or entire day). As many have posted, we'll just have to wait and see. But I know I wouldn't feel safe getting out on the roads - Friday was a little different as by noon, the roads were okay. But this morning's newscast showed a HIGH tomorrow of only 28 for HOUSTON - can you imagine what it would be north of 1960 or I-10? This could be bad folks.

[srainhoutx]

Decisions will be made today concerning what will or will not happen concerning schools closings and other related things such as de-icing operations of the bridges/overpasses/flyovers. There is far more going on behind the scene from a logistical stand point across a large geographical area than many may realize. The expense of spreading that de-icing agent alone is very costly. I assure you that after what we witnessed last Friday, public safety concerns are being very carefully weighed by the various National (NWS Offices), State and Local agencies and Emergency Management Officials. I expect we will see important information start pouring out just after the noon hour.