January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Paul Robison]

What about north of I-10? I live in northen Liberty county (Romayor).

You'll be better off that I'll be, I'm sure. You'll just get snowed on.

[txsunshine82]

The last event we didn't get no snow. Funny how I live less then 5 miles from Polk county who got inches of snow... Lol. Thanks.

[nuby3]

NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO REMIND PEOPLE TO SCROLL THROUGH PREVIOUS POSTS BEFORE ASKING QUESTIONS BECAUSE MOST TIMES THE QUESTION HAS ALREADY BEEN ANSWERED AND WE WASTE THE TIME OF OUR EXPERTS THAT WAY

[nuby3]

AND ALSO, Now that I see Mr.T is back, I know for sure we are all about to get buried in feet of snow. It's great to see you.

[Mr. T]

west versus the Southwest.

Which is why I think areas further to the east have a much larger ice threat than we do, where their flow will be more out of the SW with a higher reliance on overrunning rather than lift ahead of the shearing upper low. The GFS wants 6" of snow across coastal AL/MS, but most of that may be freezing rain

[Andrew]

west versus the Southwest.

Which is why I think areas further to the east have a much larger ice threat than we do, where their flow will be more out of the SW with a higher reliance on overrunning rather than lift ahead of the shearing upper low. The GFS wants 6" of snow across coastal AL/MS, but most of that may be freezing rain

Also another thing that others noted on another forum was the phasing of the north and south stream. I looked at the models again, and i really noticed this was the difference between large amounts of moister or very littler. The shortwave at the 700mb dropping from the lee of the Rockies really needs to connect with the disturbance in the Baja region. I still think the gfs has the best understanding of the situation, especially with the faster motion of the front. Hopefully the two pieces of energy phase together early enough, but then again we have seen how impressive just one shortwave alone can be. I mean just looking at the vertical profile of SE Texas from the GFS shows a very saturated profile all the way up. Its going to be hard for the GFS to be wrong about that 2 days out.

[Belmer]

Just my two cents, so don't bite my head off.

We're still 24-36 hours away from this event and this forum has exploded with post. It's great to see a few "older" members return on this forum. But I also want this forum to be resourceful for vital information when guest or other members use it once this winter storm kicks in. Many may not have the time to go through 10+ pages of comments that have little tid bits and not actual important information.
If possible, please ask serious questions or important information that will benefit the majority who visit this page in the coming days and the small comments (along with criticizing pro mets for their opinions along with others) to yourself. It would just make it go by much smoother!
I absolutely love this board and what it all offers for our residents around the region, not just here in SE TX!

Other than that, great information has been given tonight and am anxious to see how this winter storm wraps up.

[Mr. T]

AND ALSO, Now that I see Mr.T is back, I know for sure we are all about to get buried in feet of snow. It's great to see you.

Thanks for the welcome welcomes guys

the cold core upper low wont shear,,again,,no negativity

We kind of need it to if we want it to phase right

Also another thing that others noted on another forum was the phasing of the north and south stream.

Which is why the 18z GFS was even colder and wetter than the already cold and wet 0z GFS.
Either way, things still look good, I think...

[Belmer]

ok what do the temps look like tuesday? are they going to fall into the 20s during the day????

Yes, that looks like a good possibility. 30s should be gone by early morning on Tuesday and as precip falls, temperatures fall into upper 20s.

[unome]

3:15 am and we are 5 degrees warmer right now, at 60, than our forecast high of 55 & fully 10 degrees warmer than the forecast graph. looks like 40s in College Station right now though http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.p ... density=10
.
.

[unome]

long, but interesting WPC discussions: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

looks like they are discounting the NAM ? snow in east tx in their forecast & icing close to the coast

[srainhoutx]

The Arctic front has passed Waco and is racing S at about 40kts. Winds are currently gusting out of the N at 45 mph at DFW Airport. The front should pass Austin and College Station shortly after sun rise and near the Coast around mid day. Very gusty winds will be the main issue today. The Winter Storm Watch continues. Overnight tonight into Tuesday is looking like a real mess. QPF amount of .25 to .50 are currently expected with possibly some higher amounts near the Coast. Worrisome warm nose is detected via sounding data from overnight above 3000 to 9000 feet, but that will likely need to be fine tuned with additional data later today into tonight. Tuesday looks like a real mess as temperatures struggle to rise out of the mid to upper 20's. A Hard Freeze Warning will be required for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. More on the p-types later.

[cisa]

I just want to say thanks guys. As always, you're great help.

[TXStormjg]

Srain,
THe thing that worries me the most is people getting stuck at work. Do you think the mayor will ask people and business to stay home and closed tomorrow or is that to risking for her to do incase it is not as bad as we are saying??

[WeatherDuck]

Will the Austin area see at least something precipitation-wise from this week's system?

[cisa]

When woul we expect Watches to become Warnings?

[TexasBreeze]

I think it might be a fail for Houston. Storm watch is smaller in size and GFS is drier for the west and southern areas.

[cperk]

I think it might be a fail for Houston. Storm watch is smaller in size and GFS is drier for the west and southern areas.

One run.

[Portastorm]

Will the Austin area see at least something precipitation-wise from this week's system?

The way it's looking right now? Not much. Not much at all.

[randybpt]

Wow go to bed with good news, now it looks like nothing
All those model runs yesterday. I thought for sure if Wxman was
On board this was a sure deal for snow!