January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Andrew]

GFS has up to 3" across the area.

David Paul you gambler, you... Must not be too worried about a few hours of freezing rain/ sleet to start that may knock down potential snow totals

Same goes for the NAM. Gfs was the driest at first and now it is one of the wettest.

[Mr. T]

Same goes for the NAM. Gfs was the driest at first and now it is one of the wettest.

That's true. The NAM was phased and juiced up. Now everything is slightly out of phase

And we're 48 hours out. Another example of models doing a poor job during extreme events. They just can't handle them well since, you know, they rarely happen and there isn't much to go back on.

Good luck, HGX. Really...

[mcheer23]

Same goes for the NAM. Gfs was the driest at first and now it is one of the wettest.

That's true. The NAM was phased and juiced up. Now everything is slightly out of phase

And we're 48 hours out. Another example of models doing a poor job during extreme events. They just can't handle them well since, you know, they rarely happen and there isn't much to go back on.

Good luck, HGX. Really...[/quote


I noticed they raised precip chances to 60-70 percent.....Have the fz rain/sleet changing to snow and sleet..Seem pretty confident..

[txsnowmaker]

GTE just put parts of SE Texas in the 40-50% range for greater than 6 inch amounts.

Thanks for the updates on this model. Is metro Houston included in this 40-50 percent forecast, and what/how reliable is GTE?

[Andrew]

Same goes for the NAM. Gfs was the driest at first and now it is one of the wettest.

That's true. The NAM was phased and juiced up. Now everything is slightly out of phase

And we're 48 hours out. Another example of models doing a poor job during extreme events. They just can't handle them well since, you know, they rarely happen and there isn't much to go back on.

Good luck, HGX. Really...

Honestly it shows especially when you see the difference between the nam and NAM-hi res. It is becoming evident that the hi res models are doing a better job at picking up on the smaller things. The disturbances transitioning west across the state are small in nature and are giving most models issues. I think we will be surprised Tuesday to see so much moisture across the area.

[Mr. T]

I noticed they raised precip chances to 60-70 percent.....Have the fz rain/sleet changing to snow and sleet..Seem pretty confident..

Confident on frozen precip, not so much what type, where, and how much (understandably)....

[txsnowmaker]

Would be most interested to hear wxman57's thoughts on David Paul's forecast and comments that the atmospheric profile is indicating mostly snow for Tuesday.

[TexasMetBlake]

I suspect we'll see an expansion of the Winter Storm Watches to our west by morning and our area will likely have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning by the time we get up tomorrow considering some of the snow may begin as early as tomorrow night.

[Mr. T]

Honestly it shows especially when you see the difference between the nam and NAM-hi res. It is becoming evident that the hi res models are doing a better job at picking up on the smaller things. The disturbances transitioning west across the state are small in nature and are giving most models issues. I think we will be surprised Tuesday to see so much moisture across the area.

I believe the hi res models did a better job during the last event as well

There's definitely going to be moisture. PW values approach 0.9" across the area tuesday. During the summer this is laughably offensive, but in the winter it is robust for wintry wx

Luckily, it looks like any troubles of dry air should be nonexistent. Just how fast that pesky warm layer in the mid levels decides to cool...

[Paul Robison]

Am I likely to be freezing in the dark by this time Tuesday night?
Will I have to do all my reading by candlelight?

[Andrew]

Honestly it shows especially when you see the difference between the nam and NAM-hi res. It is becoming evident that the hi res models are doing a better job at picking up on the smaller things. The disturbances transitioning west across the state are small in nature and are giving most models issues. I think we will be surprised Tuesday to see so much moisture across the area.

I believe the hi res models did a better job during the last event as well

There's definitely going to be moisture. PW values approach 0.9" across the area tuesday. During the summer this is laughably offensive, but in the winter it is robust for wintry wx

Luckily, it looks like any troubles of dry air should be nonexistent. Just how fast that pesky warm layer in the mid levels decides to cool...

Luckily the big difference I see versus the last event is winds in the warm nose layer are coming more from the west versus the Southwest. Advection of warmer air in those levels should be less and it does look like some decent evaporation could occur in that warm layer, cooling it even faster. If we took the GFS for verbatim, everyone in SE Texas would have P-type issues. Do I think that will happen? No, I think its being exaggerated and won't take long to cool at all.

[txsnowmaker]

Some are expressing doubt about the snowfall suggested in KHOU's weather report this evening and the Futurecast forecast for training snow along I-10, suggesting that Houston will rather endure an ice storm. Does anyone know what data/information is used for their Futurecast?

[Paul Robison]

Honestly it shows especially when you see the difference between the nam and NAM-hi res. It is becoming evident that the hi res models are doing a better job at picking up on the smaller things. The disturbances transitioning west across the state are small in nature and are giving most models issues. I think we will be surprised Tuesday to see so much moisture across the area.

I believe the hi res models did a better job during the last event as well

There's definitely going to be moisture. PW values approach 0.9" across the area tuesday. During the summer this is laughably offensive, but in the winter it is robust for wintry wx

Luckily, it looks like any troubles of dry air should be nonexistent. Just how fast that pesky warm layer in the mid levels decides to cool...

Luckily the big difference I see versus the last event is winds in the warm nose layer are coming more from the west versus the Southwest. Advection of warmer air in those levels should be less and it does look like some decent evaporation could occur in that warm layer, cooling it even faster. If we took the GFS for verbatim, everyone in SE Texas would have P-type issues. Do I think that will happen? No, I think its being exaggerated and won't take long to cool at all.

Does that lessen the chances of serious icing hazards, Andrew?

[Andrew]

Honestly it shows especially when you see the difference between the nam and NAM-hi res. It is becoming evident that the hi res models are doing a better job at picking up on the smaller things. The disturbances transitioning west across the state are small in nature and are giving most models issues. I think we will be surprised Tuesday to see so much moisture across the area.

I believe the hi res models did a better job during the last event as well

There's definitely going to be moisture. PW values approach 0.9" across the area tuesday. During the summer this is laughably offensive, but in the winter it is robust for wintry wx

Luckily, it looks like any troubles of dry air should be nonexistent. Just how fast that pesky warm layer in the mid levels decides to cool...

Luckily the big difference I see versus the last event is winds in the warm nose layer are coming more from the west versus the Southwest. Advection of warmer air in those levels should be less and it does look like some decent evaporation could occur in that warm layer, cooling it even faster. If we took the GFS for verbatim, everyone in SE Texas would have P-type issues. Do I think that will happen? No, I think its being exaggerated and won't take long to cool at all.

Does that lessen the chances of serious icing hazards, Andrew?[/quote]

It really just depends on where you are located.

[Paul Robison]

Dear Andrew:
I live in Southwest Houston, off Dairy Ashford and Memorial. What does all this mean for me?

[Andrew]

Dear Andrew:
I live in Southwest Houston, off Dairy Ashford and Memorial. What does all this mean for me?

It will be close I believe. i do expect snow eventually, just not sure on how long it will take to cool down that 800mb layer enough to get it below 0 .

[Paul Robison]

Dear Andrew:
I live in Southwest Houston, off Dairy Ashford and Memorial. What does all this mean for me?

It will be close I believe. i do expect snow eventually, just not sure on how long it will take to cool down that 800mb layer enough to get it below 0 .

Dear Andrew:
One final thing, not important to the forum really, but----can I look forward to being powerless on Tuesday night? HGX seems to think so.

[Andrew]

Dear Andrew:
I live in Southwest Houston, off Dairy Ashford and Memorial. What does all this mean for me?

It will be close I believe. i do expect snow eventually, just not sure on how long it will take to cool down that 800mb layer enough to get it below 0 .

Dear Andrew:
One final thing, not important to the forum really, but----can I look forward to being powerless on Tuesday night? HGX seems to think so.

As of now I think you will be fine

[Paul Robison]

Dear Andrew:
One final thing, not important to the forum really, but----can I look forward to being powerless on Tuesday night? HGX seems to think so.[/quote]

As of now I think you will be fine.

Thank you, Andrew. You know I was referring to HGX's WX discussion from a few hours ago, don't you, in regards to icing on power lines?

[txsunshine82]

What about north of I-10? I live in northen Liberty county (Romayor).