January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[cisa]

Trying not to get too excited but this is a Southern gals Nerdvana. I hope it gives us something to talk about.

[Baseballdude2915]

I'm a stats guy, so it kind of bums me out that the midnight temperature on tuesday may screw us of a high temperature below freezing. The GFS has us in the upper 30s at midnight dropping into the 20s in the afternoon. A low wednesday morning in the teens/low 20s, so a record low is at least possible.

Yeah ABC13 put the high at 28, just for that reason.

Edit: oh and welcome back dude!

[SusieinLP]

Probability of wintery mix on Tuesday just went from 40% to 70% on the NOAA site for my area. Low of 28 on Wednesday morning

[Snowman]

The GFS makes this look like more of an ice event in New Orleans. Will that be the case or is it looking like we may get some snow too?

[cperk]

Probability of wintery mix on Tuesday just went from 40% to 70% on the NOAA site for my area. Low of 28 on Wednesday morning

Mine just went from 40% to 70% also with a low of 26 on Wednesday.

[mcheer23]

I'm a stats guy, so it kind of bums me out that the midnight temperature on tuesday may screw us of a high temperature below freezing. The GFS has us in the upper 30s at midnight dropping into the 20s in the afternoon. A low wednesday morning in the teens/low 20s, so a record low is at least possible.

Yeah ABC13 put the high at 28, just for that reason.

Edit: oh and welcome back dude!

Totally agree.

Mr. T is back! It's great to see everyone back on this forum

[mrskosh]

I just want to give a big thanks to all of you helpful mets and others for keeping me so well informed about the big weather events. We have some great local mets here in The Golden Triangle but there is nowhere to get info when the news is not on during the day. I lurk here a lot to get the latest weather news and am thankful that this site is available. Thanks again and everyone please stay safe!

[txsnowmaker]

Many years back before an expected winter weather event in Houston, a day or so ahead wxman57 gave a heads up about the potential for thundersnow so that those unfamiliar with it wouldn't be concerned if they heard thunder during a snowfall. While it didn't pan out that time, given some of the latest trends, I am curious if this is becoming more of a possibility with all of the chatter about 'intensity' with the system expected this week.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I've gone on record here saying that I believe that we could have some FUNderstorms Dr. Ed Mahmoud style with sleet/snow coming down at 1/2" to 1" per hour rates.

[sambucol]

I think its time to start talking about power outages.

This is what I'm wondering about, too. Does this event look likely to cause power outages? Trying prepare accordingly.

[Rich]

After looking at the last couple model runs this looks to be shaping into more of an ice storm for houston metro to me. Would that be correct thinking?

[txsnowmaker]

Heads up. David Paul just gave the late evening forecast, saying this could be "pretty serious", good band of snow that sits along I-10 starting around 10 am that sits on us for 3-9 hours, with snow totals exceeding 5 inches in some spots. Travel on Tuesday is forecasted to be "impossible." Tuesday "may be a day where nobody travels," he said.

[mcheer23]

That forecast that David Paul just gave............

[Mr. T]

Unlike 2011, location of 850 mb freezing line is *almost* perfect for who gets snow or not.

My back yard is on the wrong side...

gfs_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[MontgomeryCoWx]

David Paul just mentioned what I've been seeing... Isolated 5-7 inch amounts in and around Houston.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GTE just put parts of SE Texas in the 40-50% range for greater than 6 inch amounts.

[Mr. T]

GFS has up to 3" across the area.

David Paul you gambler, you... Must not be too worried about a few hours of freezing rain/ sleet to start that may knock down potential snow totals

[jerryh421]

What does it look like for areas north of Houston like Willis area?

[Mr. T]

It's interesting to me that the CMC was the first model to really show the potential of this event, at times showing extreme snows across the area, but now it is the driest... The 0z CMC has very little QPF compared to the other models, and seems to be having a hard time with the track of the upper low. The 12z run had the low swirling around the Baja for a few days, while this run is a bit closer to reality, but still stalls it for a bit across Eastern Mexico.

Thanks for the help earlier, anyway

[Andrew]

GFS has up to 3" across the area.

David Paul you gambler, you... Must not be too worried about a few hours of freezing rain/ sleet to start that may knock down potential snow totals

Yea plus I think there is also concern about where heavier banding will setup. There will prob be more bullish predictions tomorrow with more model support. With the NAM being the driest, some people are probably a little hesitant still.