January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[TexasBreeze]

The 0z NAM looks aggressive with precip for the Houston area.

It was just ever so slightly slower with the upper low. Less widespread qpf and just a tad warmer. Closed off longer and drags its feet. We really don't want this to slow down any more...

I am almost afraid to ask. So do you think this low will hold up? Aren't models typically too progressive with those sw'ern lows?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The 21Z SPC SREF suggests a more prolonged event with higher frozen QPF. The 00Z HIRES NAM also suggests some impressive banding features and is also a bit more prolonged with the precip. I suspect some changes are ahead with the overnight forecasts from both the local NWS offices as well as the WPC Winter Weather Outlook Probabilities.

Precip for longer piriod of time, greater amount, still frozen?

Yes... Lingers into Tuesday Night

[cisa]

The 21Z SPC SREF suggests a more prolonged event with higher frozen QPF. The 00Z HIRES NAM also suggests some impressive banding features and is also a bit more prolonged with the precip. I suspect some changes are ahead with the overnight forecasts from both the local NWS offices as well as the WPC Winter Weather Outlook Probabilities.

Precip for longer piriod of time, greater amount, still frozen?

Yes... Lingers into Tuesday Night

Wow, we'll, ok. I can't say that I would be unhappy about that, although I know it's a dangerous situation, the weather nerd in me is excited to see how this shakes out.

[txsnowmaker]

GTE >6" snow probs have all of SE TX in the 20-30% shade

Never heard of the GTE model before. Is it reliable?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Mother of SE Texas Winter God... Convective banding over SE Texas bring some epic precip....

[SusieinLP]

So....when can we expect a winter storm warning....?

[sambucol]

I'm sure school districts are going to be busy tomorrow deciding whether or not to close school again. Should be interesting.

[mcheer23]

So....when can we expect a winter storm warning....?

If conditions warrant a warning. Tomorrow.

[seanatsk]

With all respect I know this is a Houston forum but I'm from Houston and in Atlanta for work this week. How do you guys think this plays out for this area? the mets here seem to be all over the place with their predictions

[don]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH AN EARLY EVENING SPIKE IN DEW POINTS AS
SOUTHWEST BREEZES HAVE BACKED MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS MAY CREATE
MORE OPEN AREA PATCHY FOG (PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA) AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALL TO NEAR ZERO AND
THE BREEZE LAYS DOWN. THE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TRAVELING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...PROGRESSIVELY REACHING
THE COAST BY LATE MORNING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD AND DRY...MID
TEEN AMBIENT AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS IN THE DAKOTAS
EVIDENCE TO THE POTENCY OF THIS NEXT AIR MASS TO DESCEND INTO
TEXAS TOMORROW. NWP SUITE STILL FORECASTING AREAWIDE QPF IN THE
QUARTER (INTERIOR) TO NEAR HALF INCH (COAST) LIQUID PRECIP TUESDAY
THAT WOULD EQUATE TO SNOW MEASURED BY THE INCHES OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH
AN EARLY DAY FROZEN MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW (SANS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...MAYBE) BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS BECAUSE
OF THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA BEFORE AN ANTICIPATED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIATES
THE LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL DEVELOP AS
EITHER UPPER LEVEL FALLING ICE CRYSTALS AND/OR SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS
EVAPORATIVELY-COOL THE LOWER COLUMN TOWARDS THE WET BULB TEMP THROUGH
THE DAY. RELATIVELY SHALLOW EARLY DAY 7-800MB WARM (ABOVE FREEZING)
LAYER IS ANTICIPATED TO SHRINK BACK TOWARDS 0 C INTO MID-DAY. WHILE
SNOW IS BECOMING NEARLY CERTAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR
COUNTIES...A LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW
OVER (NEAR) COASTAL COUNTIES IS BECOMING A MENTIONABLE EVENT. OF
COURSE...THE REAL HAZARDS WILL COME WITH THE PRECURSOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL COAT ROADWAYS AND POWER LINES WITH ICE.
THE BELOW REASONING STILL HOLDS TRUE ON HOW THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL UNFOLD TUESDAY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ALL OF THIS
SOUND FAMILIAR? 31

[srainhoutx]

This looks like a high impact event front Eastern Texas to the Carolinas. Also the 00Z GFS has trended 'wetter' with QPF in the .50+ range and that extends back into the Austin/San Antonio area as well. Over 1 inch QPF is over the Southern half of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama into Georgia and South and North Carolina eastern areas.

[stormlover]

Paul-kfdm Meteorologist just texted me and said gfs shows about 2 inches of sleet and 2 inches of snow in the golden triangle.

[Andrew]

i dont care about louisiana or whatever is east of here all i care about is the weather right here in SE texas. so, SRAIN, can you please do something to make the QPF and snow totals go up?

Other people do care....so.....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looking at SREF and GFS... someone in SE TX is going to get really lucky and could see north of 6 inches of measurable frozen precip.

I think its time to start talking about power outages.

Wednesday will be a mess too. I could see temps bottoming out in the low teens for areas North of Houston.

[Kingwood31]

Maybe it will be mostly sleet..so what..atleast were getting SOMETHING

[Mr. T]

This looks like a high impact event front Eastern Texas to the Carolinas. Also the 00Z GFS has trended 'wetter' with QPF in the .50+ range and that extends back into the Austin/San Antonio area as well. Over 1 inch QPF is over the Southern half of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama into Georgia and South and North Carolina eastern areas.

0z GFS is definitely much more high impact than the NAM at this point. It actually slowed down the disturbance this run like the NAM, but it was stronger. Thus, still a high impact event for us.

[randybpt]

I really don't see 2 inches of sleet and 2 inches of snow here in Beaumont
I don't know where he gets that

[srainhoutx]

i dont care about louisiana or whatever is east of here all i care about is the weather right here in SE texas. so, SRAIN, can you please do something to make the QPF and snow totals go up?

We are a much more Regional Board than a SE Texas Board. This was a dream that Dan had and we have made that dream happen. If you don't like that, I suggest you try another venue. UNDERSTOOD?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I see you, you beautiful, potent 500mb vortex.... come have a slumber party!

[Mr. T]

I'm a stats guy, so it kind of bums me out that the midnight temperature on tuesday may screw us of a high temperature below freezing. The GFS has us in the upper 30s at midnight dropping into the 20s in the afternoon. A low wednesday morning in the teens/low 20s, so a record low is at least possible.